Here's why Trump will win re-election and it is not personal (legal, Democrats)

[vision33r]

Riots and looting saved Trump from the COVId19 disaster. 2nd wave will start winter, right now people are not seriously ill from it. Bush won reelection because of the BS Iraq war.

BLM and antifa is going to put Trump support over the top. Clinton had a better shot because of women voters. But Biden better be ready for the Metoo accusations.

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by vision33r

Riots and looting saved Trump from the COVId19 disaster. 2nd wave will start winter, right now people are not seriously ill from it. Bush won reelection because of the BS Iraq war.

BLM and antifa is going to put Trump support over the top. Clinton had a better shot because of women voters. But Biden better be ready for the Metoo accusations.

Trump has lost ground since the protests started.

Whatever problems the protestors had, Trump's response has turned off even more people.

[villageidiot1]

Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident

What little chance Joe Biden realistically had against Trump (polling aside . . . we saw how that helped make President Hillary Clinton ) is going down the drain with the "defund the police," anarchist, antifa, radical anti police and anti white movement.

How can you associate Biden with any of the items you listed?

Originally Posted by WaterWave

The state polls weren't wrong when weighed correctly.

Dems here can't take it because Trump is leading in most state polls now when weighed correctly

"Weighted correctly" = alternative statistics?

Originally Posted by NeutralZone

It's too early to predict who will win the election. There are just too many variables. Normally, an incumbent president usually wins re-election, but this is not a normal year and Trump is not a normal president. He is detested by a large segment of the electorate. He is a divisive figure. His handling of the covid-19 pandemic was deeply flawed at first, although it got better. His communication style and messaging is erratic and sometimes self defeating.

Having said all that, I see the election currently slipping away from the Democrats. This should have been in the bag for them, but they had to get on the stupid train, full speed ahead. The rioting, looting, toppling of statues, violence, destruction, "defunding the police" or "abolishing the police", and now the farcical CHAZ mob in Seattle is 100% coming from the left, with Democratic mayors and Democratic governors clueless, weak, and impotent to stop it. This is turning into a law and order election, and if that is the case, Trump wins. People are scared. Just within my own circle of friends and family, I know 3 people who have never owned guns in their life have recently bought guns, with one more planning on it. All of them voice the same concerns. They are all watching the news and cannot believe what is happening and that no one is stopping it. Out of these 4 people, only one is a conservative, the other 3 are Democrats. And all 4 have told me they are voting for Trump. I usually don't take into account purely anecdotal stories, but I sense something going on here, something the media has not picked up on yet, and I don't think polling has picked up on it yet. So, while I still maintain that the election is unpredictable, recent events are helping Trump.

"Coming 100% from the left" How do you make these things up? I think the news has been pretty clear about the issues. Haven't you been paying attention?

Originally Posted by banjomike

I can't recall any loyalty polling that was done before Trump's win.

And if a person believes that all polling is phony, how can a loyalty poll be trusted?

But there is one thing that's for sure; 2020 is not in any way typical of any other election year.

It is so unusual in all ways that the only valid comparisons that can be made are from the last similar election year, and that one happened 102 years ago, in the middle of the greatest single world-wide war humanity had ever experienced, so whatever comparisons that still exist aren't very valid.

We do, however, have some recent solid evidence of a trend, however. 2018 was a very big year for the Democrats, so big many senior Republicans decided to retire from office than face re-election in it.

And that says to me that Trump, a single person, does not have such power of personality as to turn that trend around, even if he tried.

And he's not trying to turn it around at all. He's concentrating on holding only his shrinking base of support and ignoring all others.

How did he actually win in 2016? By winning 1% more of the voters in a winner-takes-all electoral state, Pennsylvania. He won because the electoral college in Pennsylvania in all those districts he lost had to switch their voter's choices to Trump by law. The winner takes all law.

So, in actuality, 1% of Pennsylvania's voters settled it for the rest of us. 48 states have a winner-takes-all law for their electoral college.

I tend to doubt Trump can pull it off again, but he thinks he can, and since this is a most unusual year, who knows?

Since so many states have that law, I guess it's possible despite all appearances to the contrary.

Actually it was much less than 1%
Trump 48.18%
Clinton 47.46%

Difference of 0.2287%

Originally Posted by Robertfchew

Clearly you don't like the winner takes all electoral college voting method so why don't we go to a popular vote but with the caveat that strict voter id laws are in place and to get a voting card the requirements must be at least as strict as the ones for getting a passport are and you cannot be a felon.

I would be fine with that.

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

Presumably the meaning is that of Trump's supporters, only 6% have pealed away, or have become disaffected. That leaves open the question, of how many persons formerly disengaged or outright opposed to Trump, would have later changed their minds, and become in some sense pro-Trump.

I'm a former never-Trumper. What swayed me was NOT the riots, and certainly none of Trump's "accomplishments". Rather, he's the only federal-level figure who at least verbally is skeptical of the shutdowns. That, and not anything else, has made the difference for me.

This has been the case multiple times. How many of the persons who voted for Trump in 2016, were really just voting against Hillary? Further back, how many Kerry voters in 2004 were just voting against Bush II?

So you're OK with hundreds of thousands of people dying? Good leadership like at least a half dozen other countries would've have resulted in less deaths and a shorter shutdown.

Originally Posted by WaterWave

More educated doesn't mean much.

Any dumb person can go to college now

Agreed it doesn't take a lot of brains today. What is sad is the US high school graduation rateis approximately 88%, and the four-year graduation rate for students attending public colleges and universities is 33.3%. The six-year rate is 57.6%. So dumb people can go to college, they just get loan debt and no degree.

[pete98146]

Originally Posted by WaterWave

More educated doesn't mean much.

Any dumb person can go to college now

Or put on a sheep costume and be smart enough to close all the buttons on the back....

[lkm370]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Nothing personal...just the facts....facts that Dems can't disprove...only deny in their own emotionally charged minds, and try to deflect from, rather than address. Its too painful for them to deal with the facts.

Sorry...facts matter to most people, so denial is futile...except in one's own mind, where temporary relief lies.

If Trump wins, they will become emotionally unglued...4 more years of Trump...oh my

If Biden wins, they'll be embarassed/humiliated for 4 years, which is the lesser of the 2 evils for them.

Even if they win, their victory will be stained by the new Presidents' rapidly decaying mind...so sad.

Most of what you wrote was opinion, opinions with half-facts, opinions feauturing an outcome predicated by spurious correlations, etc....

The only true fact you wrote is this:

-8 of the 11 recent Presidents were re-elected for a 2nd term.

Now, you left out 1 big factor...what did the 3 presidents who werent re-elected all have in common: recession during the election year. Hmmmm, seems awfully important to leave out considering Trump is facing the worst one in 90 years.

Also, keep in mind that there are only 4 presidents who were elected with the electoral college while losing the pop vote. All but 1 of them won a 2nd term: George W Bush. Trumps approval is currently 15% below Bush's at this time during re-election in 2004.

[Adhom]

Don't believe Trump supporters if they say it's about the economy. For them, it's always about racial purity. In America, there is really only one overriding goal. Make as money as you can. It doesn't really matter who you screw over in the process, whether it's Americans, foreigners, illegals, recent immigrants. With enough money, politics won't matter and you can rise above the cesspool and move your kids to whatever country is doing better at the moment.

[GeorgiaTransplant]

Originally Posted by WaterWave

More educated doesn't mean much.

Any dumb person can go to college now

Did you go to college?

If you did, probably not for a major with probability or statistical work...

[Donna-501]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Nothing personal...just the facts....facts that Dems can't disprove...only deny in their own emotionally charged minds, and try to deflect from, rather than address. Its too painful for them to deal with the facts.

Sorry...facts matter to most people, so denial is futile...except in one's own mind, where temporary relief lies.

If Trump wins, they will become emotionally unglued...4 more years of Trump...oh my

If Biden wins, they'll be embarassed/humiliated for 4 years, which is the lesser of the 2 evils for them.

Even if they win, their victory will be stained by the new Presidents' rapidly decaying mind...so sad.

and Trump lies more than tells the truth and the majority of people know that.

[Donna-501]

Originally Posted by Bitey

The Lewinsky scandal didn't break publicly until 1998. There were various scandals swirling around Clinton's personal life long before then, but they were already baked into the cake for the 1996 election cycle.

I've heard a lot said here and elsewhere about the enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump. IMO that's irrelevant; the relevant comparison is between those enthusiastic to vote for Trump and those enthusiastic to vote AGAINST him. Nobody's voting FOR Biden, he's simply the pliable receptacle for conveying the anti-Trump vote.

[dspguy]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

I would love to see polls correlate their data to include the same % of gun owners as exist in data. Especially poll FIRST time 2020 post riot gun owners.

Gun sales nationally will soar as riots are common. 1968 riots led to Nixon winning. Safety will be the #1 issue this year.

Nixon won because he pulled off the Southern Strategy. He flipped the board. There was a party realignment going on in the 60s. Democrats were pushing for civil rights whereas prior to that they were the party of segregation. Case in point: Strom Thormond. He is likely considered one of the most openly racist politicians of multiple generations.

Thormond was a Democrat until 1964. When LBJ and the Democrats pushed for the Civil Rights Act, Thormond (and others) flipped to the Republican side. Republicans saw an opening and took it. They bore the mantle of dog whistle racism every since.