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Winning a 2nd term is much easier than winning the 1st time. Just about every previous sitting President the last 2 decades has won re-election. Even folks who said Obama will a one timer was wrong. Bush W was incredibly unpopular, he was less talented than Biden, Trump, or Obama. Surprisingly Trump actually has more black supporters than Bush W.
Clinton won re-election even after he was impeached and acquitted. Obama was incredibly unpopular with Whites and Republicans but he won by a landslide against Mitt Romney because the economy was slowly improving and people want more of the same.
Winning re-election is much easier for a sitting President because there is a group of Americans that don't listen to the media and they rather have less change during times of uncertainty than have to take a risk on a different person. As long as the economy does not get any worse, Trump is assured a 2nd term. Because Biden is even worse than Hillary as a candidate. Many people did not vote for Trump the 1st time because he was unproven and not a politician. But now he has been groomed he will gain new voters while holding on to his supporters.
It is believed that 94% of Trump supporters remained loyal which is very high.
There are lots of new Trump supporters that will out vote people that hated him during the previous election. So his popular votes this election will be much higher than previous election. He was behind Hillary by 9 million votes. I believe he may actually be behind by less than 2 million popular votes this time. I don't think Biden will unseat him since Biden has kept himself out of the spotlight throughout this year.
Now which candidate in the past has stay hidden this long with less than 5 months to go before the election?? Trump campaigned around the country almost all of 2016 leading up to the election, how can Joe Biden beat Mr. Trump when he hardly ever shows up in the news?
During the early primaries, it is said that Joe Biden's rallies have less people than Bernie or Buttrieg's. So the Democrats picked a candidate that was actually weaker than his opponents?
So I hope after the election people can reply to this thread and tell me that I am wrong. Since I predicted the result of the previous election that Trump will win while everybody laughed and said it was impossible. The Democrats blew it because they didn't want Bernie to win and sweep the country far to the left. Everybody that endorses Biden like AOC did are being paid for lip service. For the media to drum up all this fake poll numbers of Biden beating Trump will blow up in their faces again this election how terribly wrong again they are.
What little chance Joe Biden realistically had against Trump (polling aside . . . we saw how that helped make President Hillary Clinton ) is going down the drain with the "defund the police," anarchist, antifa, radical anti police and anti white movement.
It's too early to predict who will win the election. There are just too many variables. Normally, an incumbent president usually wins re-election, but this is not a normal year and Trump is not a normal president. He is detested by a large segment of the electorate. He is a divisive figure. His handling of the covid-19 pandemic was deeply flawed at first, although it got better. His communication style and messaging is erratic and sometimes self defeating.
Having said all that, I see the election currently slipping away from the Democrats. This should have been in the bag for them, but they had to get on the stupid train, full speed ahead. The rioting, looting, toppling of statues, violence, destruction, "defunding the police" or "abolishing the police", and now the farcical CHAZ mob in Seattle is 100% coming from the left, with Democratic mayors and Democratic governors clueless, weak, and impotent to stop it. This is turning into a law and order election, and if that is the case, Trump wins. People are scared. Just within my own circle of friends and family, I know 3 people who have never owned guns in their life have recently bought guns, with one more planning on it. All of them voice the same concerns. They are all watching the news and cannot believe what is happening and that no one is stopping it. Out of these 4 people, only one is a conservative, the other 3 are Democrats. And all 4 have told me they are voting for Trump. I usually don't take into account purely anecdotal stories, but I sense something going on here, something the media has not picked up on yet, and I don't think polling has picked up on it yet. So, while I still maintain that the election is unpredictable, recent events are helping Trump.
"It is believed that 94% of Trump supporters remained loyal which is very high."
That doesn't make sense. If they are 'Trump supporters', then it should be 100 percent. Or are you saying the 6 percent of Trump supporters do not support Trump?
-8 of the 11 recent Presidents were re-elected for a 2nd term.
-Joe Biden's enthusiasm rate is 28%, Hilary's was 48% when she lost to Trump.
-8% of Bernie Bros. didn't vote for Hillary, and Bernie just got ditched a 2nd time.
-Blacks rioting in rage against Dem city leaders in nearly every major U.S. city.
-Tara Reade claims of a Biden rape have been supported by friends during the time it allegedly occurred.
-2 DOJ investigations with Joe Biden's name on them...Russia gate, & Ukraine.
-Dems being on the wrong side of China, causing millions of lost American jobs since 2000.
-Dem states poor responses to coronavirus..8 of the top 10 states w/ the worse death rates were Blue.
-Joe Biden WROTE the 1994 crime act that imprisoned thousands of blacks for drug offeneses.
-Democrats led the "War on Drugs" which crushed blacks
-Trump's campaign has 6X more funding than Biden's when in 2016 it was the Dems who had more $.
Its not hard to find spurious correlations to back up your claim. None of what you wrote matters. Its like you put reasons Trump will win on pieces of paper and pulled them out of a hat at random.
Nothing personal...just the facts....facts that Dems can't disprove...only deny in their own emotionally charged minds, and try to deflect from, rather than address. Its too painful for them to deal with the facts.
Sorry...facts matter to most people, so denial is futile...except in one's own mind, where temporary relief lies.
If Trump wins, they will become emotionally unglued...4 more years of Trump...oh my
If Biden wins, they'll be embarassed/humiliated for 4 years, which is the lesser of the 2 evils for them.
Even if they win, their victory will be stained by the new Presidents' rapidly decaying mind...so sad.
I would actually love not to vote for Trump but Biden is a first class moron and always has been. But I agree with the point about getting a second term if you get a first. There is a strong presumption in favor of people wanting continuity. It isn't about the man per se. Trump has basically just gotten done staffing his departments. If you want to see real change you will have to vote him in for a second term to allow those departments to do their jobs. I can't see many of the people who voted for him last time changing their minds.
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) is going down the drain with the "defund the police," anarchist, antifa, radical anti police and anti white movement.
