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Originally Posted by btownboss4
Seems pretty obvious that Swing state polls are closing but national polls are not budging.
It’s one thing to lose the election like Bush v Gore or Clinton v Trump where the loser won the popular vote by less than 2.5 points and had under 50% of the vote.
But if Biden gets 52% of the vote, wins by 7-8% or about 10,000,000-11,000,000 votes and loses in the EC. We are going to enter a public legitimacy crises. And it’s going to be ugly.
I don’t think people quite understand how unrepresentative the system truly can get because the smallest states are actually split between the parties but this isn’t even the worst theoretical alignment.
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Swing state polls really haven't changed that much. Half of them have barely been polled at all, so trends aren't really known. Also, some of the polling aggregates like RCP are ignoring tons of polls. For example, RCP has shown 7 polls for Wisconsin this month, yet there have been 18. They seem to be ignoring a lot of them, but do include polls like Trafalgar, which is a known Republican pollster basically hired by the Trump campaign. The swing states aren't as close as RCP has them.
One thing to remember is that these polling sites love a closer election- it means more traffic.