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Seems pretty obvious that Swing state polls are closing but national polls are not budging.
It’s one thing to lose the election like Bush v Gore or Clinton v Trump where the loser won the popular vote by less than 2.5 points and had under 50% of the vote.
But if Biden gets 52% of the vote, wins by 7-8% or about 10,000,000-11,000,000 votes and loses in the EC. We are going to enter a public legitimacy crises. And it’s going to be ugly.
I don’t think people quite understand how unrepresentative the system truly can get because the smallest states are actually split between the parties but this isn’t even the worst theoretical alignment.
Do you really think Biden is that popular? To win by 10 million plus?
Is it possible for a candidate to receive 52% plus such a majority yet still lose the EC?
I suppose it is possible that the East and West Coasts could go for Biden while the middle hands a win to Trump.
If Biden wins there will be calls of cheating and corruption but if Trump wins we will see a nation wide meltdown by the Left that will be worse than what we saw in 2016. I expect the impeachment process to begin day 2 of his second term.
Do you really think Biden is that popular? To win by 10 million plus?
Is it possible for a candidate to receive 52% plus such a majority yet still lose the EC?
I suppose it is possible that the East and West Coasts could go for Biden while the middle hands a win to Trump.
If Biden wins there will be calls of cheating and corruption but if Trump wins we will see a nation wide meltdown by the Left that will be worse than what we saw in 2016. I expect the impeachment process to begin day 2 of his second term.
Honestly it’s largely justified if he does lose by like 7% and Biden gets the majority of the vote.
Which is possible considering the polls are saying ~5% margin is the 269-269 split which could be off by a couple points
Trump could lose 750,000 votes in Texas and flip 0 EC votes. Which is looking close to what may happen. If AZ and MN both flip you’d have an extension on the EC/PV split
Seems pretty obvious that Swing state polls are closing but national polls are not budging.
It’s one thing to lose the election like Bush v Gore or Clinton v Trump where the loser won the popular vote by less than 2.5 points and had under 50% of the vote.
But if Biden gets 52% of the vote, wins by 7-8% or about 10,000,000-11,000,000 votes and loses in the EC. We are going to enter a public legitimacy crises. And it’s going to be ugly.
I don’t think people quite understand how unrepresentative the system truly can get because the smallest states are actually split between the parties but this isn’t even the worst theoretical alignment.
Watched a docu on the 2016 fiasco in the EC. This went to the Supreme court. The court ruled that electorates cannot vote different from what their constituents decide. They cannot scratch out the winning candidates name and write in their own choice as happened several times in 2016. If a state decides Democratic the Electorates MUST vote Biden or face a stiff fine and/or possible jail time.
The issue is less about small-states vs. large, but about winner-takes-all. One candidate could have overwhelmingly lopsided majorities in a bevy of states, but score 49.999% in just enough other states, to end up with the minority of electors.
I agree, that an overwhelming popular-majority for Biden is unlikely. The country is too evenly split. But it is still possible for Biden to exceed FDR's 1932 popular-vote percentage (around 58%), and still lose the election.
If Biden wins there will be calls of cheating and corruption but if Trump wins we will see a nation wide meltdown by the Left that will be worse than what we saw in 2016. I expect the impeachment process to begin day 2 of his second term.
Democrats won't necessarily hold onto the House if Trump wins re-election by the landslide margin that many of his supporters expect, since most voters will choose the same party for president and Congress. Not too many people are going to re-elect both the president and their own Democratic member of Congress who has impeached him already.
Watched a docu on the 2016 fiasco in the EC. This went to the Supreme court. The court ruled that electorates cannot vote different from what their constituents decide. They cannot scratch out the winning candidates name and write in their own choice as happened several times in 2016. If a state decides Democratic the Electorates MUST vote Biden or face a stiff fine and/or possible jail time.
The court ruled that state penalties for faithless electors are constitutional. Only 14 states actually cancel an elector's vote that differs from the elector's pledged candidate, and just five have any sort of criminal penalty attached to doing so.
Trump could lose the popular vote by more than 2%, and still get 270 electoral college votes to win re-election.
Clinton was a better candidate than Biden, and Clinton had a well organized capaign machine, that Biden doesn't have.
After the debates (if Biden debates), there will be more clarity. Biden's been flushed out of his basement now, so expect him to say, & do, some odd things. The more people see of Joe, the less they'll like him.
The Dem's low turnout will decide the outcome....again. Biden is no Obama...Obama generated great enthusiasm and turned out the Dem voters big time. Biden doesn't have that ability.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cape Cod Todd
Do you really think Biden is that popular? To win by 10 million plus?
Is it possible for a candidate to receive 52% plus such a majority yet still lose the EC?
I suppose it is possible that the East and West Coasts could go for Biden while the middle hands a win to Trump.
If Biden wins there will be calls of cheating and corruption but if Trump wins we will see a nation wide meltdown by the Left that will be worse than what we saw in 2016. I expect the impeachment process to begin day 2 of his second term.
With the antiquated EC, it's theoretically possible for a candidate to win the 48 'winner take all' states by a grand total of 48 votes and the votes for the losing candidate count for nothing.
That's a good thing HOW, especially in a country that sends men and women off to unnecessary wars of choice to fight to bring democracy to other countries when we have none ourselves?
With the antiquated EC, it's theoretically possible for a candidate to win the 48 'winner take all' states by a grand total of 48 votes and the votes for the losing candidate count for nothing.
That's a good thing HOW, especially in a country that sends men and women off to unnecessary wars of choice to fight to bring democracy to other countries when we have none ourselves?
Go back to elementary school.
The whole purpose of the electoral college is so that the big states couldn't dominate the smaller states.
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