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The consensus of polls in Arizona points to a Biden edge at this crucial moment in the race. If Biden is ahead, Mark Kelly is probably even doing better.
Trump appears to be on track to deliver once-red Arizona to Biden. This is wonderful. But, what’s more amazing will be the senate race. If McSally loses to Kelly, she will have the unique honor of delivering BOTH previously GOP senate seats to the Dems in back-to-back elections. Wow, that’s gotta be historic. Lets hope she is ready to make history.
The consensus of polls in Arizona points to a Biden edge at this crucial moment in the race. If Biden is ahead, Mark Kelly is probably even doing better.
There have been 18 polls since late July and McSally has never been in the lead in any of them.
It was probably not a good idea to appoint the loser of an election to an open seat. It's like the will of the voters is being ignored.
Biden has consistently held that narrow lead since March. He's RCP +4.5 right now. Unless there's a national shift towards Trump, Biden is a slight favorite to win Arizona.
The consensus of polls in Arizona points to a Biden edge at this crucial moment in the race. If Biden is ahead, Mark Kelly is probably even doing better.
Trump appears to be on track to deliver once-red Arizona to Biden. This is wonderful. But, what’s more amazing will be the senate race. If McSally loses to Kelly, she will have the unique honor of delivering BOTH previously GOP senate seats to the Dems in back-to-back elections. Wow, that’s gotta be historic. Lets hope she is ready to make history.
This is a bigger deal than I think most people realize. After 2016, no one could dream up a Senate map where Democrats could have the majority again. They could get close, 47 or 48 (the Doug Jones win in Alabama was a real shocker, but is just a temporary gain).
If there was a Blue Wall for Democrats in the Rust Belt (now since gone), there was a Red Wall in the Senate - thanks in part to two seats in Arizona that would have never gone blue in our lifetimes.
Enter Donald Trump. And enter McSally. Not only did she lose a seat to the Democrats for the first time since 1988, but she was then gifted McCain's seat that has been Republican since 1962. And she might give up that seat as well.
If she loses in November, I don't think we will hear of Martha McSally running for any political office again. Democrats had no chance in hell of making a run at Senate Majority for a long time, but thanks to her, it might just happen.
More like Trump 51 Trump 40. That is nothing but fake poll.
Where do you come up with this stuff? I'm dying to see what happens if Trump loses the election 338-200 and Trumpers argue that "no, he really won 338-200, you just read it wrong!"
You are claiming these polls are off by 20 points. Sounds desperate. Nationally, polls were off by 1.1 points which is well within normal. Two sets of state polls were way off. One being Wisconsin in Trump's favor. The other being... Nevada. Which was wrong in Clinton's favor.
The polling errors go in both directions. Trump just happened to have polling errors in his favor in the states he needed. I do expect polls to be off again. Hence the margin of error. But I would not expect polls to be off only in Trump's favor by 10+ points in the states he needs.
The portion of America that is still thinking straight sees 3.5 months of riots under Trump's watch, high unemployment and a dereliction of duty by the President in the face of a national threat.
The idea that AZ is somehow going from Biden +10 but is really Trump +10 is based on nothing except hope. Polls aren't off by 20 points. With 50 days left, Trump can close that gap. If we wake up on Election Day and the average of polls is showing Biden at +10 in Arizona, Biden will win Arizona after the votes are counted. RCP average has Biden up by 5.6 in Arizona. That's not 10, but it is large. Trump needs to shrink that down to have a shot.
I'm fully expecting a made-up bombshell to drop around Halloween from Bill Barr. Trump won in 2016, in part, due to Comey reopening the investigation into Clinton. He'll pull a power play and try and repeat that in some form. So, if people want to say the polls are wrong because Trump is going to abuse his power for his political gain - then sure, polls are off. But then you'd have to admit American Democracy is dead and it wasn't the Democrats who caused it.
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