Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Biden is rapping up the Midwest states not looking good for Trump even with the protesting in Wisconsin. Voters continue to move toward Joe Biden with a 50.1 average to Trumps 43.4 average. Rasmussen even shows Biden +8 in WI. Trump is losing this election maybe the debates will turn it around I doubt it best bet 2024.
Keep in mind- if Biden continues to cut into Trumps lead with White voters and keeps (much less improves) his standing with suburban women, that will flip Wisconsin and make MN more Dem. If he pulls to 50% with white women it will mean a 3-4% increase of minority groups for Trump will not be adequate. Trump won Wisconsin with 47% of the vote in 2016, so he can be beaten without peeling away any of his supporters. He also had about 2500 fewer votes than Romney had in 2012. Simple math says the more voters who show up, the less likely Trump is to win the state again. Biden has a lot more avenues/voter groups to find additional votes than Trump.
I was responding to this if you pay attention to the thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnywhereElse View Post
That poll was taken September 1-2 and involved 1,000 likely voters (combination phone and online). Did you notice how few people are actually being polled in all of the polling? It seems that they are decreasing the number of people being polled over 2016. Sort of "quickie" polls.
I think after the disaster that polling was in 2016, most don't take polls that seriously. I think many of us depend on things like the number of unemployed, which is a verifiable number.
Boy you sure want to believe those polls when they are going your way, don't you?
Show me a poll where Trump is leading in any state which gives him a path to 270+ EC votes. I'm not like Trump supporters who only agree with a poll that shows Trump leading. If Trump had gained millions of new voters after 2016 he would be leading in the polls at least by 2-4% in battleground states. Biden has a larger lead and more constant lead then Clinton did. I'm not saying Trump can't squeak by with less then 100k votes in a few states it's possible.
If you cherrypick enough, you are bound to find singular polls in enough states for Trump to win. Let's say we start with the RCP Electoral Map (with toss ups) as Trump's base.
Trump is at 125 with the usual suspects (WV, WY, ND, SD, NE, KY, TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, OK, MO, KS, ID, MT)
I'm going to use RCP for this. Any state where Trump has a +1 poll, I'll add to this list.
Add TX: Plenty of polls have him up in TX. Add 38 and he's at 163.
Add GA: Plenty of polls have him up in GA. Add 16 and he's at 179.
Add IA: Plenty of polls have him up in IA. Add 6 and he's at 185.
Add AZ: One poll has him up by 1 in AZ. Add 11 and he's at 196.
Add OH: One poll has him up by 1 in OH. Add 18 and he's at 214.
Add NC: Two polls has him up by 2 in NC. Add 15 and he's at 229.
Add FL: One poll has him up by 4 in FL. Add 29 and he's at 258.
I can't find RCP polls for NE and ME congressional districts, but we'll throw Trump a bone and give him those.
So, that puts him at 260. I can't find any other states with at least one poll that has him leading. I guess my initial premise was wrong.
For laughs, let's do this same exercise for 2016 using the last polls we had on RCP.
We are going to spot Trump the same states I did for 2020, but add TX and NE2 to give him 164 to start.
Add FL: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 29 and he's at 193.
Add GA: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 16 and he's at 209.
Add NC: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 15 and he's at 224.
Add OH: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 18 and he's at 242.
Add IA: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 6 and he's at 248.
Add NV: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 6 and he's at 254.
Add AZ: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 11 and he's at 265.
Add ME2: Trump was up in RCP average. Add 1 and he's at 266.
Add PA: Trump was up in 1 poll. Add 20 and he's at 286.
Add MI: Trump was up in 1 poll. Add 16 and he's at 302.
Add NH: Trump was up in 1 poll. Add 4 and he's at 306.
Add CO: Trump was up in 2 polls. Add 9 and he's at 315.
So a big difference between 2016 and 2020:
In 2016, just using polls that had the RCP average got Trump to 266. And then in PA and MI, he did have some polls with him leading. And Wisconsin was a surprise. That got him to 306.
In 2020, polls where Trump is leading in RCP average only gets him to 185.
That means he'd need a bigger upset in 2020 than in 2016.
1,000 voters is in no way indicative of how a few million will vote. I still don't get why the Dems are still humping the poll numbers after 2016... desperation I guess? I don't put any stock into polls... AFAIK Trump has never led a poll... but somehow defeated the GOP field of candidates and then defeated Killary and became POTUS...
P.S. I've never been asked to take part in a poll either. Do I need to change my party affiliation to Democrat for that to happen? Anyone know?
#TRUMP2020
What happend with Trump in Wisconsin???? You completely quit posting in POC Trump got beat by Dementia Joe Biden from his basement.
Polls were way off. The average of WI polls had Biden up by 7%. He's didn't even win by 1%.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
