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Long a bellweather state, Ohio has seen a rightward drift over the decades. Just how much this is due to redistricting vs actual movement among the population is debatable. Ohio has only four Democratic held districts in The House. On the other hand Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, still serves as US Senator (no doubt due to his strong anti-free trade positions).
While Clinton won the national popular vote by 2%, she lost Ohio by 8%; a lot of ground for a Democrat to make up given the current polarized political climate. Still, Biden has a chance of winning it, given Ohio's overall drift toward the Democrats in recent months.
In Ohio, and surely in other states as well, the "blue collar" vote is split between the "mining vote" and "manufacturing vote". Much of eastern Ohio, like West Virginia, is coal mining country. Traditionally Democratic but currently Republican, these eastern counties saw the sharpest turn toward Trump in 2016.
With blue collar voters, Biden seems to be at the very least less unpopular than Clinton was, and so has a chance to win back these voters, especially the manufacturing vote in NE Ohio. Biden would also need to win votes not only in the Cleveland area, but around Dayton as well. It may even pay for Biden to campaign in Cincinnati and very republican farming areas in NW Ohio.
As of now, Ohio still has a somewhat better chance of swinging toward Trump, but if it happens, it will be by a much thinner margin than in 2016. However, if Biden wins this state instead, Trump will have little, if any, chance of holding onto the White House, unless he flips another marginally Democratic state into his column (New Hampshire? Maine? Minnesota? Nevada?). Regardless, the election will test the state's importance in future races. If it votes for Trump, it's assured this state will be considered reliably "red", especially if Biden wins anyway, and thus lose attention in future elections.
Democrats have been abandoning blue collar whites. So the midwest has moved towards the Republicans.
In January the Democrats were planning on not spending any money in Ohio. They have basically written Ohio off as a red state, although they may believe they can win the presidential election.
Biden will need to take two big states back from Trump. I don't think Ohio or Florida are one of those two states but he does have multiple other scenarios that work.
Biden has to win 3 big states back from Trump and hold all his states. And one of those states probably needs to be Pennsylvania. If everything is the same but Biden wins MI, WI and AZ, its 269-269 and Trump wins in the House.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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I think Ohio is becoming a reliably red state. GOP gaining in Midwest but loosing ground in South and interior west. I just took a trip all the way through the state on I-75 it was a sea of Trump flags. Literally caravans of cars and motorcycles with Trump flags. Columbus and Cleveland are solid blue but not enough population to offset rest of state.
Biden has to win 3 big states back from Trump and hold all his states. And one of those states probably needs to be Pennsylvania. If everything is the same but Biden wins MI, WI and AZ, its 269-269 and Trump wins in the House.
That's assuming Biden doesn't pick-up NH, which he's up big in.
Not necessarily, OH and FL are demographically and economically completely different states. Trump could easily lose one and win the other. I don't think it's such a strong indicator anymore.
Also, keep in mind that Biden could lose both FL and OH and still have several paths to winning the election.
"could" and "might" are speculation.
The cold, hard facts are that Ohio is 29 for the last 31.
So are you, you're making presumptions thinking OH will determine the winner of the presidential election when it is just as likely it will not.
No one knows for sure.
But I'm basing it on the indisputable fact that it is 29 for the past 31.
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