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Once again, I'm talking about the actual vote in this thread.
Targetsmart is just an estimate.
We don't really know reliably how the vote is trending between parties in non-party reg states.
O.k.
However, the fact NBC news (which hates Trump) mentions those three states in their article tells me it (Targetsmart reporting) might well have some legitimacy
However, the fact NBC news (which hates Trump) mentions those three states in their article tells me it (Targetsmart reporting) might well have some legitimacy
The party numbers for Wisconsin come from no where. The state election commission says on their own website, they don't collect any demographics. All they release are number of ballots sent and number returned.
The party numbers for Wisconsin come from no where. The state election commission says on their own website, they don't collect any demographics. All they release are number of ballots sent and number returned.
So, you're saying the NBC article used info which has no validity. O.k. I don't know anymore than what the article reported.
However, the fact NBC news (which hates Trump) mentions those three states in their article tells me it (Targetsmart reporting) might well have some legitimacy
From your own link
Quote:
More than 29 million people from 45 states had voted as of Tuesday morning, either by mail or in person. Nearly half of those votes — almost 14.2 million ballots — had come from Democratic-affiliated voters. Republican-affiliated voters had returned almost 10.1 million ballots. And while not every Democrat will vote for former Vice President Joe Biden and not every Republican will vote for President Donald Trump, Democrats have a 14-point edge in returned ballots for which party affiliation is known.
The early voting data are provided by the political data firm TargetSmart. Nationwide numbers on party affiliation are based on a combination of state-provided registration data, when available, and TargetSmart's model of party affiliation.
If we estimate 150M total votes this cycle, that means we're already at 23% voted.
And those votes were cast in a Biden +10 environment.
Trump would need to win the remaining 77% of the votes by at least +4 to win the popular.
That would mean he would need a 13-14 point bump from his current position.
Since the EC favors him, the actual number he needs is slightly less.
If Biden and Trump split the remaining 77% equally, that would be a 3 point loss in the overall popular for Trump, probably about the limit he could have a chance at.
So we're looking at minimum 9-10 point bump Trump needs at this point.
Also, every day it remains a Biden +10 environment, the polling increase Trump needs will increase. I will periodically update the math in this thread.
At 45M votes cast, we could be looking at 30% of the final turnout in.
As Biden has dropped to +7.7 in the RCP average, I’m going to be conservative and say these votes maybe only went +6 for Biden. Given that, Trump needs to lose the remaining 70% by no more than 2 points to achieve a minimum floor of a 3 percent loss in the popular vote. At Biden +7.7, that means Trump needs a minimum of a 5 point bump to no worse than -2 in the average, and he needs it fast.
Things are somewhat odd here in AZ. I received my second mail-in ballot yesterday. Home many more duplicates is the recorder’s office sending out?
Are you going to vote twice?
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