Predict the 2020 Presidential Election Popular Vote (unemployment, 9/11, voters, patriot)
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What are your predictions for the Presidential Election 2020 popular vote?
Here are mine--
Donald Trump:
2016 popular vote: 62,984,828
2020 predicted popular vote: 64,550,000
Joe Biden:
2016 Hillary Clinton popular vote: 65,853,514
2020 predicted Joe Biden popular vote: 62,700,000
I think Trump's voter enthusiasm is through the roof, partially due to the Democrat's ANTIFA and BLM destructive riots, and the abolish/defund police proposals.
I think a lot of would-be Democrat voters are turned off this election, and won't vote, in part due to bad candidate in Biden, his worse VP candidate in Harris, and just frustration due to everything going on.
Given the environment we have today (which might change):
Biden: 70,700,000 million votes
Trump: 60,300,000 million votes
That would result in a Biden +8 victory which shortchanges him a little from his current +10.6 on RCP. It also factors in a few more independent/third party voters coming into the fold and voting for either Trump or Biden instead. I based this on data we have available to us now instead of "gut feeling." National polls have accurately predicted the Electoral College winner in 17 of the last 19 elections. Sometimes they are a few points off nationally (I shortchanged Biden in Trump's favor). However, given what information we have today, I think that's a fair prediction.
If polls tighten between now and November 3rd, the margin would shrink.
What are your predictions for the Presidential Election 2020 popular vote?
Here are mine--
Donald Trump:
2016 popular vote: 62,984,828
2020 predicted popular vote: 64,550,000
Joe Biden:
2016 Hillary Clinton popular vote: 65,853,514
2020 predicted Joe Biden popular vote: 62,700,000
I think Trump's voter enthusiasm is through the roof, partially due to the Democrat's ANTIFA and BLM destructive riots, and the abolish/defund police proposals.
I think a lot of would-be Democrat voters are turned off this election, and won't vote, in part due to bad candidate in Biden, his worse VP candidate in Harris, and just frustration due to everything going on.
Chime in with predictions and opinion.
with everything that's going on in the world I would be borderline shocked if the Dem's turnout was lower than in 2016. Trump will lose a lot of voters. Biden +8 or +9 and he'll be around the 315-320 range in EVs
Given the environment we have today (which might change):
Biden: 70,700,000 million votes
Trump: 60,300,000 million votes
That would result in a Biden +8 victory which shortchanges him a little from his current +10.6 on RCP. It also factors in a few more independent/third party voters coming into the fold and voting for either Trump or Biden instead. I based this on data we have available to us now instead of "gut feeling." National polls have accurately predicted the Electoral College winner in 17 of the last 19 elections. Sometimes they are a few points off nationally (I shortchanged Biden in Trump's favor). However, given what information we have today, I think that's a fair prediction.
If polls tighten between now and November 3rd, the margin would shrink.
You think 5 million MORE people are voting for Joe Biden?
If Biden were a sharp, fresh, engaging Democrat candidate, I could see those numbers possibly being ballpark. But Biden is a DC swamp critter, low energy, dementia laced. Not a good candidate.
Law & order are on the minds of voters, and that is going to be a vote for Donald Trump, despite his less than stellar communication style and his own shortcomings.
What are your predictions for the Presidential Election 2020 popular vote?
Here are mine--
Donald Trump:
2016 popular vote: 62,984,828
2020 predicted popular vote: 64,550,000
Joe Biden:
2016 Hillary Clinton popular vote: 65,853,514
2020 predicted Joe Biden popular vote: 62,700,000
I think Trump's voter enthusiasm is through the roof, partially due to the Democrat's ANTIFA and BLM destructive riots, and the abolish/defund police proposals.
I think a lot of would-be Democrat voters are turned off this election, and won't vote, in part due to bad candidate in Biden, his worse VP candidate in Harris, and just frustration due to everything going on.
Chime in with predictions and opinion.
Donald Trump 67,500,000
Joe Biden 67,000,000
Increase will be due to increased population and a reduction in the 3rd party vote, not turnout. 3rd parties got over 5% of the vote last time. It will be down below 2%.
I don't think there's any doubt that Biden will win the popular vote. The "voter enthusiasm" angle really is not going to affect anything, and Biden is doing better at this point than Hilary did and she won the popular vote last time.
Voter enthusiasm for Biden is low, while Trump's is high--
You think 5 million MORE people are voting for Joe Biden?
If Biden were a sharp, fresh, engaging Democrat candidate, I could see those numbers possibly being ballpark. But Biden is a DC swamp critter, low energy, dementia laced. Not a good candidate.
Law & order are on the minds of voters, and that is going to be a vote for Donald Trump, despite his less than stellar communication style and his own shortcomings.
I think Trump loses voters to Biden. And I think more Americans turn out to vote. In 2008, 69M Americans voted to oust Republican leadership from our country after 8 years of a hot mess where Bush was mainly saved in 2004 by high patriotism after 9/11 and some lingering patriotism for his wars. It seems that we are leaning in that sort of direction once more.
Thinking that there'd be 1 million more voters for a Democrat after the last four years where anyone outside of the echo chamber that is CD P&OC and Fox News would likely realize Trump did not live up to his expectations... Our population has increased by 10% over the last 12 years. Thinking that Biden could gather just 1.5% of that increase doesn't seem like that big of a stretch.
And the dementia line of attack is dead. Biden showed he is more than capable of handling Trump. That gambit seems to have backfired on Trump.
I think Trump loses voters to Biden. And I think more Americans turn out to vote. In 2008, 69M Americans voted to oust Republican leadership from our country after 8 years of a hot mess where Bush was mainly saved in 2004 by high patriotism after 9/11 and some lingering patriotism for his wars. It seems that we are leaning in that sort of direction once more.
Thinking that there'd be 1 million more voters for a Democrat after the last four years where anyone outside of the echo chamber that is CD P&OC and Fox News would likely realize Trump did not live up to his expectations... Our population has increased by 10% over the last 12 years. Thinking that Biden could gather just 1.5% of that increase doesn't seem like that big of a stretch.
And the dementia line of attack is dead. Biden showed he is more than capable of handling Trump. That gambit seems to have backfired on Trump.
Ehh, maybe, but I don't think so.
I think Democrats have a lighter turn out this year. Don't forget, Biden is a terrible candidate.
Dementia line is dead? I disagree--Biden has plenty of early dementia signs--it doesn't just disappear because of the debate. Biden has early dementia for sure, and should not be running for President.
Folks don't like Biden, and don't like Harris either.
Biden will get the coast vote (east/west) and Illinois. I think he'll struggle to hit 220 EVs.
What are your predictions for the Presidential Election 2020 popular vote?
Here are mine--
Donald Trump:
2016 popular vote: 62,984,828
2020 predicted popular vote: 64,550,000
Joe Biden:
2016 Hillary Clinton popular vote: 65,853,514
2020 predicted Joe Biden popular vote: 62,700,000
I think Trump's voter enthusiasm is through the roof, partially due to the Democrat's ANTIFA and BLM destructive riots, and the abolish/defund police proposals.
I think a lot of would-be Democrat voters are turned off this election, and won't vote, in part due to bad candidate in Biden, his worse VP candidate in Harris, and just frustration due to everything going on.
Chime in with predictions and opinion.
If Trump enthusiasm is through the roof because of the pandemic, 200,000+ American deaths and massive unemployment, think of the what the Republicans will have to do in 2024 to drum up the same level of enthusiasm. Maybe start an unwinnable war, reinstate the draft, pollute the environment faster? This year is a banner year in terms of American ineptitude. How will you top it in 4 years?
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