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Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232
Yes, but outside of perhaps a home court advantage officials aren't deliberately playing favorites. And while every election is often deemed "special" I've been following politics since 1980 and have never seen anything like 2020.
Much of the MSM has dropped all pretense of objectivity and I believe some (not all) polling outfits are doing the same.
Sure 2020 has Covid that other elections haven't had, but 2024 will bring its own set of variables we haven't encountered so far.
I think media and polls are businesses just like anything else. That somehow you think NYT or WP produce biased polls, but outfits such as Rasmussen and Trafalgar don't, well...... that just shows your bias.
They're all biased.....but that doesn't mean they're necessarily wrong.
Sure 2020 has Covid that other elections haven't had, but 2024 will bring its own set of variables we haven't encountered so far.
I think media and polls are businesses just like anything else. That somehow you think NYT or WP produce biased polls, but outfits such as Rasmussen and Trafalgar don't, well...... that just shows your bias.
They're all biased.....but that doesn't mean they're necessarily wrong.
The reputation of a polling outfit is everything. However, this year, right now I believe polls like the CNN 10 Biden lead in PA is cooked. Some (not all) polling outfits are deliberately doing what they can to help the Biden campaign and why I toss out the outliners. It's either faulty methodology or cheating. A day or two before the election is when we'll see the polls start falling in line with each other.
I don't think for a second the Biden camp believes the polls. I'm sure their internal polling shows Biden is indeed in trouble.
2024 will bring its own set of variables we haven't encountered so far.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,907 posts, read 2,071,641 times
Reputation: 4478
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232
The reputation of a polling outfit is everything. However, this year, right now I believe polls like the CNN 10 Biden lead in PA is cooked. Some (not all) polling outfits are deliberately doing what they can to help the Biden campaign and why I toss out the outliners. It's either faulty methodology or cheating. A day or two before the election is when we'll see Trumps roughly in line with the margin of error.
I don't think for a second the Biden camp believes the polls. I'm sure their internal polling shows Biden is indeed in trouble.
2024 will bring its own set of variables we haven't encountered so far.
Perhaps but right now it's 2020.
What do you base that on? Other than that you think they're outliers and in cahoots with Biden campaign?
Based on that logic, since Trafalgar and Rasmussen are outliers in the opposite, does that mean those two outfits are cooking the books for Trump?
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,907 posts, read 2,071,641 times
Reputation: 4478
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232
With regards to PA Traflasger (Biden up 2) and Rasmussen (Biden up 3) aren't outliners. Both in line with with other polling outfits.
What other polling outfits? CNN: 10 Quinn: 8. Civiqs: 6. Suffolk: 6. All better rated posters than Trafalgar or Rasmussen, since, you know, you say reputation is everything for pollsters.
Based on 538 PA is plus 6.3 for Biden. That means Trafalgar's plus 2 for Biden is as equally of an outlier as is CNN's plus 10. So CNN is biased, but Trafalgar isn't, per you?
What other polling outfits? CNN: 10 Quinn: 8. Civiqs: 6. Suffolk: 6. All better rated posters than Trafalgar or Rasmussen, since, you know, you say reputation is everything for pollsters.
Based on 538 PA is plus 6.3 for Biden. That means Trafalgar's plus 2 for Biden is as equally of an outlier as is CNN's plus 10. So CNN is biased, but Trafalgar isn't, per you?
Toss out the 9.
you know, you say reputation is everything for pollsters.
All that counts toward their reputation are the numbers posted on Nov. 1st or 2nd.
While I understand this is a totally different election than 2016, I still come back to the fact that the candidate is again Trump. One is still degraded, mocked and called a racist if they admit to voting for him. That has not changed, if anything, it has gotten worse. Heck, where I am from, you would be a social leper if you ever admitted to supporting the man lol... the secret Trump voters are lurking.... just depends how many. Its going to be a close race I predict.. Biden may still come out on top but the electoral college will be much closer then popular vote. No matter what polls say, I may still give the edge to Trump.
I don't like either candidate so will only be voting local and down ticket. Doesn't matter in my state anyway, Biden will win by millions.
Totally from observation in my neck of the woods and travels in PA, the Trump signs were more numerous in the earlier months. Now the Biden signs are being put up. What really has surprised me is the number of Libertarian Jorgensen Yard Signs I am now seeing.
To quote my life long Republican husband, "Hot Damn! "So THAT's his name?" ROFL You couldn't pay him to vote for a Democrat, BUT........... Which candidate does a Libertarian vote take away from?
BTW, received my mail in ballot a week ago Wednesday. Mailed it in on Friday. Got email from my County Board of Elections this Tuesday that my ballot had been received. Not enough time to be counted? I voted for Biden if you want to know.
To quote my life long Republican husband, "Hot Damn! "So THAT's his name?" ROFL You couldn't pay him to vote for a Democrat, BUT........... Which candidate does a Libertarian vote take away from?
Traditionally, I'd Libertarian votes take away more from Republicans than Democrats. In this election cycle, I suspect that is even more true than normal.
While I understand this is a totally different election than 2016, I still come back to the fact that the candidate is again Trump. One is still degraded, mocked and called a racist if they admit to voting for him. That has not changed, if anything, it has gotten worse. Heck, where I am from, you would be a social leper if you ever admitted to supporting the man lol... the secret Trump voters are lurking.... just depends how many. Its going to be a close race I predict.. Biden may still come out on top but the electoral college will be much closer then popular vote. No matter what polls say, I may still give the edge to Trump.
I don't like either candidate so will only be voting local and down ticket. Doesn't matter in my state anyway, Biden will win by millions.
This may be true, but polling outfits understand this phenomenon much better now than they did in 2016. The reluctant Trump poll responder is not a new thing now. 2016 will make 2020 polls better
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Why are so many people conflating the media with polling organizations? Fox News is about as far right as one can be without be out-and-out government-run propaganda, but their polls still more or less jive with other national pollsters.
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