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Shelby (if he runs, announcement expected soon), Murkowski, Boozman, Crapo, Grassley (if he runs, he would be 95 when his term ends), Young, Moran, Hoeven, Lankford, Scott, Thune, Lee, and Blunt (given MO's shift to the right in recent years) should all be fine...
Shelby and Grassley are both in their 80's and if they decide not to run then GOPers have two new senators to try for. Given that Joni Ernst's seat was at times a tossup (she won by 7% despite most polls saying a clear tossup) I would guess Grassley's seat could potentially be competitive, although both, especially Alabama's should be R holds.
Kennedy should be a favorite in LA, but Dem Governor John Bel Edwards is term limited and could run against Kennedy (a fair bit of speculation), so that could be an interesting race.
That leaves Johnson's, Rubio's, Portman's, Toomey's, and Burr's seats. I think Rubio should win (Florida Republicans have done well in recent years), but if maybe Ivanka Trump or Matt Gaetz (Trump favorites) runs, Rubio may have a tough time getting out of the primaries. Val Demings is maybe the only Democrat that could win here, but if it's Gaetz or Ivanka, Dems might have a better shot. Johnson's seat will be tougher to defend, but who steps up in the Democrat primary is an interesting question.
Portman's seat will probably stay in Republican hands (it's hard to find a Democrat like Sherrod Brown who would be popular in Ohio) but if it's Jim Jordan or some other Trump favorite, the seat could be competitive. If a more center-right politician that's somewhat like Portman runs, GOPers should feel confident.
Toomey's seat will be pretty hard for Republicans to defend. Given the state has gone a bit to the left since 2016, that momentum might be tough for GOP personnel to hold. Conor Lamb, Joe Sestak, Joe Torsella could have a go against the GOP, where they might have a harder time coming up with a solid candidate.
Burr's seat will be interesting. The GOP have a slate of people who could run (Lara Trump, Mark Walker, Tim Moore, Pat McCrory, Dan Forest, or Ted Budd could all run), and the Democrats have a solid slate as well (Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Roy Cooper (term limited in 2024, so I think he would probably finish that out and then challenge Tillis in '26), Josh Stein, Anthony Foxx). The GOP if they could get someone somewhat center-right like Burr is should win IMO, but the list of GOP contenders are mostly all Trump-level right and could be exposed by someone like Jeff Jackson. Stein, Foxx and Smith may have a bit harder go of it.
Well stated. I think that as you said the question will be who are the Rs representatives going to be? If the winners of primary are Trump Q types then the Dems chances will increase in states like Florida, Ohio and NC which lean to Republican side.
True. The Democrats only have to defend the Warnock Georgia seat. They have better chances at picking up North Carolina and Pennsylvania if they choose good candidates. Wisconsin could also be in play since Ron Johnson is not a good senator for a state that went for Biden. Florida could be interesting if Ivanka runs in primaries and bloodies Marco.
I agree with your assessment of Ohio, if the R’s choose Jordan it could be a race for the Ds
The Warnock seat will be a easy win for the democrats as Stacey Abrams is running for Governor against Kemp. She was the main reason for the state turning blue, it took Brian Kemp using every dirty trick in 2018 to win the race. Since then she has signed up over 400k new voters of color & this really showed up in the senate runoff races.
Democrats have to get behind one candidate early & run a really good campaign in Ohio. Tim Ryan is about the only guy who can pull this off.
One thing which hasn't been mentioned is Jamie Harrison as the new DNC chair, the guy broke all fund raising records running against L. Grahm in South Carolina. Winning a seat is much easier when you have unlimited funds.
State senator Jeff Jackson announced he's running for Burr's seat in 2022 in NC. Extremely popular in Charlotte. joins Erica Smith and possible Josh Stein and Anthony Foxx in the Dem primary.
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Originally Posted by bellhead
The Warnock seat will be a easy win for the democrats as Stacey Abrams is running for Governor against Kemp. She was the main reason for the state turning blue, it took Brian Kemp using every dirty trick in 2018 to win the race. Since then she has signed up over 400k new voters of color & this really showed up in the senate runoff races.
Democrats have to get behind one candidate early & run a really good campaign in Ohio. Tim Ryan is about the only guy who can pull this off.
One thing which hasn't been mentioned is Jamie Harrison as the new DNC chair, the guy broke all fund raising records running against L. Grahm in South Carolina. Winning a seat is much easier when you have unlimited funds.
Jamie Harrison was able to fundraise for the same reason Amy McGrath was, everyone hated his opponent.
Biden picking him for DNC doesnt make much sense. There were better state leaders, and candidates who did well.
Could change, but Newsom would likely appoint someone to the seat to the 2022 Midterms. Harris's term ends in 2022 so would not be a Special Election unless one is called before then (do not know yet who would be appointed or if they would run for re-election, so do not know yet if this would technically be open or not come 2022).
Hopefully, newsome will only be a bad memory by then.
No, they won't. President Trump held on to his 8.5 percent margin in Ohio and Iowa. Those seats will not go Democratic. He gained in Florida, from one percent to 3.3 percent. A Democrat has now not won the governors race, senate race, and several state wide offices in Florida since 2012. North Carolina MAY be closer due to the influx on New Yorkers and Californians. Conversely, if they like their democratic run high taxed states so much, why do they insist on moving to low taxed red states and then vote for the same democrats who ruined the states they left?
Ohio elected an R to the Senate after giving Trump the same margin in 2016.
Florida has a Dem for Ag secretary and aside from Rubio and Trump 2020 they tend to have one point races. That means their elections will be largely decided by candidate and political climate.
I think a lot of people who are not from a metro area in the South have problems understanding the electorates in these areas. NC is basically coming down to rural areas vs urban metros in almost equal numbers. Those metros attract huge numbers of Southerners who like the south but do not want to live with the social or economic issues prevalent in their smaller cities or towns. Asheville (and increasingly Wilmington) are liberal cities. Charlotte and Raleigh attract huge numbers of college grads who have been trending D across the country. We also tend to have different Dems than you would see in the Northeast, west coast, or even the Midwest. The Southern states also attract huge numbers of conservative Northern transplants.
If I had to guess a D winning Ohio will be dependent on Rs picking a bad candidate while the Ds pick a great one. Similarly Florida would require primarying Rubio with a Gaetz like candidate. NC will not see either candidate go over fifty or under 47- the 2020 D Senate candidate hit 46.9 in the midst of a sex scandal while the R incumbent only went 48.6. It was 1.5% Trump state after being a 4 point state in 2016. The Governorship went 51-47 to the Dem and the Lt Governer
Look, I get you dont like being wrong, but you are. Thats a fact. I even explained why
You arent getting a Republican district in the Baltimore/DC suburbs unless you gerrymander in favor or Rs.
Your argument assumes a gerrymander rather than proving one, and the bigger flaw is that it has the same problem as Maryland.
precincts are irrelevant to gerrymandering, so im not sure what you actually tried to sayt here.
About 33% of Maryland vote went to Trump but only 1/8 districts in Maryland are held by a Republican. More likely 2-3 should be held, if not gerrymandered in favor of one party.
Harford County is a red county in Baltimore's suburbs.
It is geographically more connected to Baltimore County/Baltimore City and well part of its MSA with a MARC line running through it linking it to Baltimore, than it is to the eastern shore of Maryland. It could be argued that it is gerrymandered making a super red Republican district 1, so that the other districts below it are more blue.
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About 33% of Maryland vote went to Trump but only 1/8 districts in Maryland are held by a Republican. More likely 2-3 should be held, if not gerrymandered in favor of one party.
Harford County is a red county in Baltimore's suburbs.
It is geographically more connected to Baltimore County/Baltimore City and well part of its MSA with a MARC line running through it linking it to Baltimore, than it is to the eastern shore of Maryland. It could be argued that it is gerrymandered making a super red Republican district 1, so that the other districts below it are more blue.
Maryland isnt like Texas where R's win little counties 80-20 and then lose the large cities 60-40. Half of Trumps 976,000 votes came from 4 counties ; He lost the 3 most populous of those 4 counties 62-35, 56-41 and 79-19, the 4th was Hartford, which he only won by 56-45 by a net 13,000 votes.
In short, You would have to do the very thing you are against to get a 2nd R district, put people together who have nothing in common or are geographically far apart
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