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RCP takes a straight up average of the last few polls (in this current case with Nevada the last four) while 538 takes more of an aggregate approach. It will average polls as well, but also takes into consideration other factors.
An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.
What I noticed in 2020 were a number of polls which tightened just before the election. I suspect they had been tinkering with their polling data to give a paying client what they wanted. Or they lean politically to the left or right.
But now that election day has arrived their final numbers give a more accurate reading because these are the numbers polling outfits are judged on.
Lot of close races but in a mid-term the party in power generally is not leading. I consider that to be somewhat if a sign that this fall Republicans are going lose most of these.
Laxalt is ahead in the last four polls. Polling almost always underestimates GOP support. Masto-Cortez is toast barring Democrat dirty tricks, which I’m sure are coming.
In Nevada the polls have generally been slightly better for the GOP than the final result
In 2018 when Laxalt ran for Governor, the RCP average had him up by 0.7, he lost by 4.1
In 2018 the race for Senate showed a tie on the RCP average between Heller and Rosen, Rosen won by 5
2016 RCP average had Trump up by 0.8, he lost by 2.4.
What I noticed in 2020 were a number of polls which tightened just before the election. I suspect they had been tinkering with their polling data to give a paying client what they wanted. Or they lean politically to the left or right.
But now that election day has arrived their final numbers give a more accurate reading because these are the numbers polling outfits are judged on.
Outside of internal polling that gets released, I really wouldn't suggest it has much to do with tinkering. However, trying to find out who is a likely voter or not is certainly not an exact science, though might get a little easier as you get closer. You also tend to have more undecideds when you are further out, if they tend to break heavier to one side or the other it can certainly have an impact (even polls at the end will show some undecided so the same thing could happen if the undecideds lean heavier to one side or the other)
Masto is garbage. She is for open borders. Cortez Masto and 11 other senators introduced the Home Ownership Dreamers Act, legislation that mandated that the federal government was not authorized to deny mortgage loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or the Agriculture Department solely due to applicants' immigration status
So according to her, illegals can take mortgage loans and the government guarantees the loans. Crazy. She has bad ideas after bad ideas.
Masto is garbage. She is for open borders. Cortez Masto and 11 other senators introduced the Home Ownership Dreamers Act, legislation that mandated that the federal government was not authorized to deny mortgage loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or the Agriculture Department solely due to applicants' immigration status
So according to her, illegals can take mortgage loans and the government guarantees the loans. Crazy. She has bad ideas after bad ideas.
That's because Vegas runs all their hotels on illegal labor those hotel owners want to keep it that way. They aren't the only ones most of the hospitality industry uses illegal labor along with construction, and lot of other businesses. Even Trump uses illegal labor he only used E-verify in states that require it like everyone else.
That's because Vegas runs all their hotels on illegal labor those hotel owners want to keep it that way. They aren't the only ones most of the hospitality industry uses illegal labor along with construction, and lot of other businesses. Even Trump uses illegal labor he only used E-verify in states that require it like everyone else.
What does that has to do in forcing banks to guarantee loans to illegals or forcing banks giving loans to illegals? That's insane.
What does that has to do in forcing banks to guarantee loans to illegals or forcing banks giving loans to illegals? That's insane.
Don't have to be a legal citizen in get a home mortgage I know illegals who own homes there are banks who do loan to illegal immigrants called a ITIN mortgage. https://www.stilt.com/blog/2018/08/c...nts-buy-house/
Don't have to be a legal citizen in get a home mortgage I know illegals who own homes there are banks who do loan to illegal immigrants called a ITIN mortgage. https://www.stilt.com/blog/2018/08/c...nts-buy-house/
If the bank wants to take the risk it's their call but the government shouldn't force banks to accept their loan applications and have the government guarantee it. They are illegally in the country. Masto shouldn't be giving more incentives for foreigners that come to the country illegally with loans guaranteed by the taxpayers.
non-citizens especially illegals are high-risk borrowers based on two factors: the duration of their stay in the country and a potential lack of credit and once they leave the country, there is NO jurisdiction to make them pay the loan back. It's a bad idea.
What Masto is doing is forcing the banks to not reject their loan application based on their immigration status in the country when that alone is a big factor of deciding the risk of the borrower plus she is adding incentives for millions of people around the world to come illegally.
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