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I don't. Trump won in 2020 by 8%. All the current polls between Trump vs Biden has Trump winning Ohio by 8% today. DeWine for governor is up by 17%. This is a red wave year and Biden is unpopular in Ohio. How is Ryan going to win with a Democrat platform? I don't see it.
Ohio is not a red state like Texas but is been getting more to the red side in the last 8 years.
Republicans will win 4 times in a row the governorship.
House Delegation is 12 to 4 GOP.
State Senate is 25 to 8 GOP
State Legislation is 64 to 35 GOP
Trump won Ohio by 8% both times each. He is up by 8% in Ohio for 2024. I don't see how Ryan wins with a Democrat platform.
I strongly would prefer to see Ryan defeat Vance, but it’s tough sledding for Democrats in Ohio. I think it is more likely that Ryan will lose than win, but there are few things that are helping him:
(1) He is absolutely running ahead of Biden against Vance. If you look at the preferred 538 polls he is only 1 to 2 points behind Vance as opposed to being down by 8 points like Biden was to Trump. So, in most polls he is down, but he is getting more votes than Biden did, and most of the polls show that the results are within the margin of error.
(2) Trump was at a minimum a controversial President. I think is fair to say that this election is a referendum on Trump (not entirely, but certainly in part). While Ohio does lean heavily R, the senior Senator is Sherrod Brown….a pretty darn liberal guy. So, Ohio will elect a D.
(3) Ryan will likely get some decent support from white, suburban women because of the Dobb’s decision. Again, it may not be enough to put him over the top, but all other things being equal, I think it helps his chances on the whole.
(4) Finally, Vance is basically a carpetbagger. While he grew up in Ohio, he is a Silicon Valley millionaire, and came back to Ohio to win a Senate seat. Nothing unusual about that, but Ryan is a genuine Ohio guy….probably helps that he is on the home team.
So, I think all of the above works in Ryan’s favor, but still going to be tough for him to win. He has a decent chance to win, but he is not the favorite. Will be interesting to see the results come in on election night.
Are we all going to ignore when Ryan called out Vance for metaphorically snuggling up with Alex Jones, Vance denied it and within 30 minutes there was tape released of Vance doing just that?
Yes, of course the MAGAs will ignore that. We are on City-Data after all.
"Ryan is an advocate of economic protectionism, unionization, and steps to reduce income inequality. A critic of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and globalization, he has criticized George W. Bush's and Barack Obama's trade policies while supporting many of the tariffs passed during the Trump administration. Ryan supports tougher measures against China and its ruling party, accusing the nation of currency manipulation and outsourcing American manufacturing jobs." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Ryan_(Ohio_politician)
Radical Marxist, eh?
Yes, of course, because he has a “D” after his name. LOL.
(2) Trump was at a minimum a controversial President. I think is fair to say that this election is a referendum on Trump (not entirely, but certainly in part). While Ohio does lean heavily R, the senior Senator is Sherrod Brown….a pretty darn liberal guy. So, Ohio will elect a D.
My guess is that Brown won't be able to get re-elected in 2024, when Ohio will inevitably vote for Trump by a large margin in the third consecutive election. Many of the voters who used to support him and other Democrats now regard the party as dominated by "woke radical Marxists" and are no longer willing to split their tickets. Judging from primary election outcomes across the country this year, Trump's endorsement will essentially determine who takes that Senate seat in January 2025.
Many of the voters who used to support him and other Democrats now regard the party as dominated by "woke radical Marxists" and are no longer willing to split their tickets.
Proof that "many of the voters who used to support him and other Democrats now regard the party as dominated by "woke radical Marxists...?"
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75
Judging from primary election outcomes across the country this year, Trump's endorsement will essentially determine who takes that Senate seat in January 2025.
Trump clearly impacts the primaries.
Ohio is a red state and yet the GOP has had to dump at least $30 million dollars from out of state to prop up Vance. Given the state's historical voting in recent elections, Vance should have this locked up easily. No doubt that Vance was top of mind when Mitch went off on the GOP's poor candidates.
His actions are what matter to me, and his actions (votes) prove that he's a radical Marxist.
Which radical Marxist laws has he supported? Please do be specific.
While you're at it, please document that Ryan has voted "with Pelosi almost 100% of the time".
I'll be amused to see your definition of "almost".
Quote:
Originally Posted by anthony_c55
Please define the term in your own words. Also please elaborate on the difference between a "radical Marxist" and a "Marxist" and lastly, what specific policies are you referring to?
My guess is that Brown won't be able to get re-elected in 2024, when Ohio will inevitably vote for Trump by a large margin in the third consecutive election. Many of the voters who used to support him and other Democrats now regard the party as dominated by "woke radical Marxists" and are no longer willing to split their tickets. Judging from primary election outcomes across the country this year, Trump's endorsement will essentially determine who takes that Senate seat in January 2025.
Interesting. You may be right. You may be wrong. We will know in a couple of years.
Interesting. You may be right. You may be wrong. We will know in a couple of years.
I'd actually prefer to be wrong - but the outcomes of recent elections have convinced me that more Americans than ever before are not open to voting for politicians from the opposing party, especially for federal office. This is likely to benefit Republicans in the Senate, since there are more right of center than left of center states. But yes, we'll see what happens in 2024.
I'd actually prefer to be wrong - but the outcomes of recent elections have convinced me that more Americans than ever before are not open to voting for politicians from the opposing party, especially for federal office. This is likely to benefit Republicans in the Senate, since there are more right of center than left of center states. But yes, we'll see what happens in 2024.
I think this is an accurate assessment. I think Ryan will do well- might even get to 47% but ham sandwich with an R next to its name would hit at least 49% on Ohio. Any semblance of intelligence would carry said ham sandwich over 50%.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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I'd guess the reduced gap between how Ryan is polling vs Biden in 2020 is mostly related to Roe decision but Ohio has become red enough that Vance probably still wins but closer.
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