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These all indicate a Trump landslide come November. Biden has to get 7-8 points up in the aggregate of polls to have a decent shot at winning, he's not going to get there.
These all indicate a Trump landslide come November. Biden has to get 7-8 points up in the aggregate of polls to have a decent shot at winning, he's not going to get there.
You are comparing to the poll disparity from 2020 and prior. Many pollsters have since changed their methodology to account for the prior disparities. Starting in 2022, Dems outperformed the polls by a good margin in nearly every election. Maybe the pollsters swung too far toward Republicans with their new methodology starting in 2022. If that's the case, Biden wins easily and Trump cries that the election was stolen yet again.
.... Listen, the swing state polls have been very close the whole time. But I'll remind you guys of something, which is that if this race is tied in the national popular vote going into election day and those numbers hold, Joe Biden is going to be defeated and Donald Trump is going to be president. The national popular vote -- and we've never had it quite like this, it's been going on now for, you know, three of the last four cycles or started with George W. Bush.
Donald Trump lost California to Biden by 5 million votes. He lost New York by 2 million. That's 7 million votes. So that popular vote, Biden can't be tied with Trump in the head-to-head national vote or he loses. The Democrats know that and the campaign knows that. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...for_biden.html
You are comparing to the poll disparity from 2020 and prior. Many pollsters have since changed their methodology to account for the prior disparities. Starting in 2022, Dems outperformed the polls by a good margin in nearly every election. Maybe the pollsters swung too far toward Republicans with their new methodology starting in 2022. If that's the case, Biden wins easily and Trump cries that the election was stolen yet again.
2022 was better but still overstated Dem votes overall. Also, Trump didn't run in 2022 which lowered enthusiasm for a huge base of Republican voters, he's back in 2024 which will invigorate Republicans across the board. Trump is on pace to landslide Joe.
Comforting Lies Democrats Need to Stop Telling Themselves About November
Quote:
The best you can say about this data, from a Biden Booster perspective, is that it always bounces around by a few points.
...And while there are plausible theories about why Biden’s polling might get better soon, and while it wouldn’t be especially surprising if it happened, there’s no particular reason to expect it to happen.
..These men are completely known quantities engaged in the first presidential rematch since 1956. Even someone who has been in a coma since late 2019 would have pretty firm opinions about them. But the Democratic optimists would have you believe that an electorally significant chunk of voters will soon change their minds.
...The trouble with this theory is that it should already be working its magic, and there is no evidence that it is.
The problem for using the red wave that wasn’t as a template for 2024 is that Democrats outperformed narratives and expectations more than polls in 2022.
There was very little in the available polling on election night 2022 that suggested Republicans were on the verge of a 2010-style midterm romp. In fact, the final generic ballot polling average on the much-maligned RealClearPolitics was that Republicans would win the national House vote by 2.5 points. They ended up winning it by 2.8 https://news.yahoo.com/three-comfort...104500704.html
Regarding polls - 538 writes:
Quote:
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support or biased yet again against Republicans, the polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.
Of course, some pollsters were more accurate than others. And today, we’ve updated the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings to account for each pollster’s performance in the 2022 cycle. Our ratings are letter grades that we assign to each pollster based on historical accuracy and transparency. (You can read exactly how we calculate pollster ratings here.) They’re one of many tools you should use when deciding how much stock to place in a poll. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/
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