Ap poll - 10/22/08 - all even in the homestretch (democratic, Republican, liberal)

[CarolinaCowboy]

Almost all the straight forward polls that simply ask......"who do you plan to vote for?" all show McCain leading!

Keep in mind these fact:

1. The major polling samples are taken by mostly by 18-30 year old liberal polsters. Are they honest?

2. The polls set all sorts of criteria as to whom they poll.

3. A higher percentage of under aged 30 being polled then ever before

4. 15-22% more Democrats being polled then ever before

All straight up polls, show McCain ahead and quite comfortably.

[sanrene]

Maybe because of their methodology. Their poll seems to be an outlier.

Really? How so?

Battleground is 2, down from a high of 13 last week. So you have anywhere from 1 to 14, something for everybody.

Let's not forget that the polls have anywhere from 3 to 16% MORE democrat respondents than republicans.

[honeyinhouston]

Keep dreaming Republicans...lol

[helenejen]

Also, from the same article:
"The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points."
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

Who knows what is really accurate, but stop cherry-picking.

[Mister Mappy]

Originally Posted by CarolinaCowboy

Almost all the straight forward polls that simply ask......"who do you plan to vote for?" all show McCain leading!

Keep in mind these fact:

1. The major polling samples are taken by mostly by 18-30 year old liberal polsters. Are they honest?

2. The polls set all sorts of criteria as to whom they poll.

3. A higher percentage of under aged 30 being polled then ever before

4. 15-22% more Democrats being polled then ever before

All straight up polls, show McCain ahead and quite comfortably.

Do you have a source, or is this just your opinion?

[sanrene]

Associated Press has a very vested interest in having people remain engaged in the Presidential battle (ad space, readership, etc.).

Oh, right. And ABC, CBS, NBC, NYTimes don't? Hilarious!

Check this poll out on RCP;

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/...08_release.pdf

Obama +5, right? This is the kind of stuff I'm always ranting about - 13% MORE dems than reps - and ONLY a five point lead? Please.

15% Strong Republican
10% Republican
13% Lean Republican
10% Pure Independent
15% Lean Democrat
10% Democrat
26% Strong Democrat
1% Don’t know

[sanrene]

Oh, look. It made it in. Better now Tuborg?

Wednesday, October 22

National FOX News Obama 49, McCain 40 Obama +9
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
National Hotline/FD Obama 47, McCain 42 Obama +5
National IBD/TIPP Obama 46, McCain 42 Obama +4
National Associated Press/GfK Obama 44, McCain 43 Obama +1
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
National F&M/Hearst-Argyle Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5

I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[helenejen]

Originally Posted by CarolinaCowboy

4. 15-22% more Democrats being polled then ever before

And the resulting percentages are weighted accordingly. Pretty basic stuff.

[Mister Mappy]

Sanrene, why is it that polls matter to you again?

[magellan]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Oh, right. And ABC, CBS, NBC, NYTimes don't? Hilarious!

Check this poll out on RCP;

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/...08_release.pdf

Obama +5, right? This is the kind of stuff I'm always ranting about - 13% MORE dems than reps - and ONLY a five point lead? Please.

No, I would agree that all of the media outlets are going to be swayed toward showing an even match up until election night (and then they'll blow it by doing exit polls in Eastern states).

If you know anyone who works in media, they are making a goldmine in political advertising right now.