November 3 Polling Thread (thought, Republicans, liberal, Barack Obama)
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Pennsylvania appears to have stabilized and not tightening anymore
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.htm (broken link)
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/02 -- -- 51.3 43.7 Obama +7.6
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Tracking Poll of PA shows Obama up by 52%-46%. While McCain is shown gaining ground, he is picking up undecideds and not taking votes from Obama... as this is the third straight day Obama has 52%.
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey
Of all the polls out late tonight -- and I do hope to have some sort of midnight update to the polling thread -- the one that ought to give Democrats the most reassurance is the new poll out from NBC and the Wall Street Journal, which gives Barack Obama a 51-43 lead. What's to like about this particular survey?
Firstly, all of the interviewing was conducted today (Sunday) and yesterday, so it's about the freshest set of data that we have.
Secondly -- and this is an underrated factor -- the NBC/WSJ poll always behaves intuitively. It goes up when the other polls go up, and goes down when the other polls go down:
Great read on the cell phone factor that Obama supporters may like Pollster.com: The Cell-Phone-Only Difference: A Final Look
If you make no CPO adjustment and give each state to the candidate currently leading, Obama wins 367 electoral votes, narrowly losing Indiana, Montana, and Georgia and narrowly winning North Carolina and Missouri. Making a conservative CPO adjustment by adding 2% to Obama's margin in each state pushes Indiana and Montana into Obama's column, giving him 381 electoral votes. Finally, if you make a 4% CPO adjustment to Obama's margins in each state (based on the differences in the national trends), Georgia suddenly shifts into Obama's column, giving him 396 electoral votes. Of course, it is important to keep in mind that the cell phone only population is not evenly distributed across the 50 states so not all states will be affected in the same way. But if you believe that there is a cell phone only effect that the state trends are not capturing, then states like Virginia, Nevada, and Ohio are not even that close right now and Obama has a good chance of winning in Indiana, Montana, Georgia, and possibly even Arizona.
Short read on translating polling data into real votes via the ground game or lack of. In Ohio, Obama's ground game outguns McCain's - Los Angeles Times
But on Friday night, only nine volunteers manned the 24 phones in the McCain campaign office. The phone bank began operating on a daily basis just two weeks ago. And since then, only five people have shown up on most weekdays to canvass local neighborhoods.
Obama's campaign, in contrast, has flooded this GOP bastion with volunteers.
ABC News: Daily Tracking Poll: Not Just Economy and Bush; Palin Is Trouble for McCain Too
Barack Obama's strong close in the 2008 campaign has been boosted by more than the shell-shocked economy and the Bush legacy. There's also Sarah Palin, and the concern she incites, especially among voters who are worried about John McCain's age. Forty-six percent of likely voters now say having Palin on the ticket makes them less likely to support McCain -- up 14 points in just the past month and more than double what it was in early September. And among those who call the candidates' age an important factor in their vote, more, 61 percent, say Palin makes them less likely to back McCain.
Just out..GWU/Battleground (http://www.tarrance.com/files/2-way-ballot-trender-11-2.pdf - broken link) tracker...Obama-50% McCain-44%, a 2 point gain for Obama from yesterday.
New Marist (http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/US081103.htm - broken link) national poll..Obama-53% McCain-44%, a 2 point gain for Obama from their previous poll.
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