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Capitulation: Intrade $$ "market based" prediction. The Fat Lady is already on stage.
-- image: Creative Commons --
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Originally Posted by PollingReport.com
Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.
The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.
Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.
Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.
[RNC deputy chairman Frank] Donatelli argues that nearly every pollster has over-sampled Democrats,
thus exaggerating Obama's support while understating that for McCain.
Donatelli argues that nearly every pollster has over-sampled Democrats, thus exaggerating Obama's support while understating that for McCain.
Huh? Does oversampling Democrats simply mean that more people identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans this time around? Why is that supposed to be wrong if that's what the true distribution is in the population? If there are more Democrats than Republicans in the population, then the polls should reflect that.
This is kind of like complaining that the polls oversample whites than blacks, therefore the polls are inaccurate. Using the GOP's logic, Obama should then complain about this. He should demand that blacks be given equal weighting to whites in the polling. That would make for an even bigger Obama advantage.
NEWS FLASH: there is no oversample; there really are more whites than blacks in the general population, just as there are more self-identified Democrats than self-identified Republicans.
Huh? Does oversampling Democrats simply mean that more people identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans this time around? Why is that supposed to be wrong if that's what the true distribution is in the population? If there are more Democrats than Republicans in the population, then the polls should reflect that.
This is kind of like complaining that the polls oversample whites than blacks, therefore the polls are inaccurate. Using the GOP's logic, Obama should then complain about this. He should demand that blacks be given equal weighting to whites in the polling. That would make for an even bigger Obama advantage.
NEWS FLASH: there is no oversample; there really are more whites than blacks in the general population, just as there are more self-identified Democrats than self-identified Republicans.
The question is what ratio of Dem/Rep will actually turn out to vote
The have oversampled democrats, as well as trying to guesstimate this "new" voter turnout. Forget the national polls - they are meaningless right now, and amount to little more than a hope and a prayer from the liberal media.
The battleground states are all really close. Virginia, Fl and Oh have tightened. Even MN and PA. It's anybody's guess who will take these states.
I still can't believe with all the bad news, it this close!
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The question is what ratio of Dem/Rep will actually turn out to vote
Take NC for example. Every election, there are always more dems than reps. Since it is usually a red state, we can say with certainty that the democrats in NC have historically voted republican - same for FL - they always show a democrat advantage as far as registration.
Typically, tuborg, reps come out to vote more often than dems.
It's great to see these states we don't usually hear about at election time coming into play .
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How Republicans map out their victory
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