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She formally announced today that she will resign her Senate seat in "September or October" to challenge Rick (pretty hair) Perry in the Republican gubernatorial contest. I've been gone for a year and still follow TX politics, but not carefully, so I have a couple of questions:
1. Do you think KBH can beat Perry in the R primaries?
2. Is there anyone of any "statewide" standing that he could appoint that would satisfy all wings of the party?
3. Since he's got to play a pretty "close" game on who he picks; too moderate and the "base" might desert him in the primary, too "base" and he loses the moderates, do you think he's losing sleep over the decision?
4. Can he appoint himself? Thereby guaranteeing a win for both of them.
5. How many "moderates" from CO, CA and NM would have to "move" to TX to elect a D to the Senate seat when it comes up?
6. When does it come up?
7. Does Rick see this as a chance to "just move on down the road"? (You have to live, or have lived in TX to get know what this means!
Good luck TX. A chance to elect a smart, classy governor instead of the idiot/coke-head/gym-rat and the plain idiot that you've had since (?) '96.
1. Right now the polls have Perry ahead. A few months ago, they had KBH ahead. Strangely, the shift happened almost immediately after the secession comments.
2. He's expected to appoint either Florence Shapiro (a state senator) or David Dewhurst (the Lt. gov).
3. Not sure.
4. I don't think he could. Even if he could, I don't think he'd want to.
5. A lot
6. The special election will be held next spring. The exact date is up to Perry.
7. LOL - nope.
KBH is going to have a tough time in the primary due to her support of the bailouts. She has two nicknames - "Kay Bailout" and "Kamnesty Bailey." I never understood the Kamnesty nickname. Her voting record is strongly against illegal immigration. Perry, OTOH, has supported many pro-illegal immigration policies, including granting in-state tuition to illegals at public universities and being a vocal opponent of the border fence. Yet people still think Perry is more against illegal immigration that KBH.
There's also the abortion issue - the single-issue anti-abortion voters will vote for Perry. That will cost KBH some votes in the primary.
For her to win, it's most likely going to take a large number of Dems voting in the R primary. (TX has open primaries; anyone is free to vote in either primary; we don't have registration). I know several Dems who are plannning to vote in the R primary for KBH, then for the Dem in the general election - simply to try and get Perry out.
Personally, I'll be voting for KBH in the primary (and the general election if she wins the primary). Perry has done some good things for TX, yes, but at this point he's making himself and the state a laughing stock. I'm sick of it.
If Perry wins the primary, I'll bite my tongue and vote for him in the general election, merely to keep a Republican in the governor's office - not because I am a Perry supporter.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 07-30-2009 at 08:45 AM..
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfgod
She formally announced today that she will resign her Senate seat in "September or October" to challenge Rick (pretty hair) Perry in the Republican gubernatorial contest. I've been gone for a year and still follow TX politics, but not carefully, so I have a couple of questions:
1. Do you think KBH can beat Perry in the R primaries?
2. Is there anyone of any "statewide" standing that he could appoint that would satisfy all wings of the party?
3. Since he's got to play a pretty "close" game on who he picks; too moderate and the "base" might desert him in the primary, too "base" and he loses the moderates, do you think he's losing sleep over the decision?
4. Can he appoint himself? Thereby guaranteeing a win for both of them.
5. How many "moderates" from CO, CA and NM would have to "move" to TX to elect a D to the Senate seat when it comes up?
6. When does it come up?
7. Does Rick see this as a chance to "just move on down the road"? (You have to live, or have lived in TX to get know what this means!
Good luck TX. A chance to elect a smart, classy governor instead of the idiot/coke-head/gym-rat and the plain idiot that you've had since (?) '96.
golfgod
I think Kay Bailey is screwing up big time. I think that when she started hinting at running for governor she assumed that Perry would step down due to aspirations of a higher office. It doesn't look like that is going to be the case. Texas, as a whole, is actually doing pretty well under pretty conservative leadership (by the way, I'm not ascribing the relative success of this state to Good Hair) and I can only guess at her motivations for this run. Maybe she genuinely believes that she can do a better job, but I think she views this as a milestone in her career that is very much "according to plan". That's all fine and I doubt anyone would expect anything more from any politician, but I am very concerned about what looney will be selected to fill that seat (what if its BILL F-ING WHITE???? He's too dirty for state legislature and you can bet he'll wallet whip the process since it's his only shot at a real political career) and the absolute mountain of campaign cash that will come from Democratic legislators in safe districts/states when the seat is up for re-election.
Don't get me wrong, I hope she wins - but she's killing herself if she can't unseat the Texas governor who has held that office longer than any other governor in the history of the state and may be exposing everyone to some substantial risk by abandoning her senate seat (although when the term is up I think this nation will be swinging right of center again and it isn't as though Texas ever trends too far left).
Thanks for the update on what's going on. My subsriptions to my local paper and "Texas Monthly" have both expired and the one radio show I do listen to online doesn't cover that much state politics. Mabye I should buy an ipod or something and download Jeff Ward from 590 in Austin.
I know that Dan Patrick (who is my former neighbor and an all around d**k-head) had aspirations of running statewide which is why he was buying a couple of more radio stations. But the last I saw he was sitting in a very gerrymandered distict, representing parts of Austin while living (I guess still) in Katy.
I think Kay may be tired of the commute and it's probably not as much fun being in the minority. I always thought she was a classy lady.
I wish Molly Ivins was still with us .... she's probably having a great laugh.
OH SO DO I. She had a lot to say about Perry long before he was governor and she would be having a blast with him lately. I miss her blistering wisdom so much. She was my favorite.
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