2010 Predictions (Harry Reid, house seat, health care, voting)

[Smash255]

Decided to make a thread on predictions for the House and Senate Elections next year. Make predictions on how many seats you think either the GOP or Dems will pick up in each chamber. You can give ranges, but try to keep the ranges within 5 or so in the house (6-10, 25-30, etc) and about 2-3 in the Senate (1-2, 5-7, etc). Also try to be specific in which seats you think will flip, especially if you think the change will be large (for example if you think 40 house seats will flip while I don't expect you to name all 40 seats at this point you should be able to name more than 5).

I have a brief overview about the House and Senate races, how many seats are up, retiring members, etc,

The Dems currently hold a 81 seat advantage in the House 258-177, currently 18 members of the House have stated they will not be running for re-election, all of those who have made that announcement at this time are seeking another office 12 of them are Republicans, 6 are Democrats.

Republicans not seeking re-election

Mike Castle DE-AL
Adam Putnam FL-12
Nathan Deal GA-9
Mark Kirk IL-10
Jerry Moran KS-1
Todd Tiahrt KS-4
Pete Hoekstra MI-2
Roy Blunt MO-7
Mary Fallin OK-5
Jim Gerlach PA-6
Gresham Barrett SC-3
Zack Wamp TN-3

Democrats not seeking re-election

Artur Davis AL-7
Kendrick Meek FL-17
Neal Abercombrie HI-1
Charlie Melancon LA-3
Paul Hodes NH-2
Joe Sestak PA-7

The Senate, the Dems currently have a 58-40 edge in the Senate, which becomes 60-40 once the two Independents who Caucus with the Dems are included. Currently 37 of the 100 seats will be up for re-election, 19 are currently held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. A possibility of a 38th race exists, depending if Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson decides to step down from her Senate Seat in order to Primary Gov. Perry in Texas. She was expected to step down, but has recently decided to delay it, so it remains to be seen whether her seat will be up for re-election or not. Currently out of the 37 Senate seats up for re-election, 9 are retiring from the Senate.

However, only 8 of these will be open on Election Day in November, as Massachusetts has a Special Election in January and the winner will seek re-election in November. The Massachusetts seat is currently held by Democrat Paul Kirk who was named an interim replacement to the late Ted Kennedy until the January Special Election. Out of the eight seats which will be open on Election Day, six of them are currently held by the GOP, two by the Democrats.

The breakdown of the other 37 Senate seats currently up for election is as follows

Retiring Democratic Senators

1. Ted Kaufman- Delaware
2. Roland Burris- Illinois
*3 Paul Kirk- Massachusetts

*Special Election to be held in Jan to replace Kirk, winner will run as an Incumbent in November

Retiring Republican Senators

1. George Lemieux- Florida
2. Sam Brownback- Kansas
3. Jim Bunning- Kentucky
4. Judd Gregg- New Hampshire
5. Kit Bond- Missouri
6. George VoVoinvich- Ohio

16 Democrats are running for re-election, 12 Republicans are running for re-election. As stated earlier winner of the January Special Election in Massachusetts will be running for re-election as well.

Democrats running for re-election

1. Blanche Lincoln- Arkansas
2. Barbara Boxer- California
3. Michael Bennet- Colorado
4. Chris Dodd- Connecticut
5. Daniel Inouye- Hawaii
6. Evan Bayh- Indiana
7. Barbara Mikulski- Maryland
8. Harry Reid- Nevada
9. Kirsten Gillibrand- New York
10. Chuck Schumer- New York
11. Bryan Dorgan- North Dakota
12. Ron Wyden- Oregon
13. Arlen Specter- Pennsylvania
14. Patrick Leahy- Vermont
15. Patty Murray- Washington
16. Russ Feingold- Wisconsin

Republicans running for re-election

1. Richard Shelby- Alabama
2. Lisa Murkowski- Alaska
3. John McCain- Arizona
4. Johnny Isakson- Georgia
5. Michael Crapo- Idaho
6. Charles Grassley- Iowa
7. David Vitter- Louisiana
8. Richard Burr- North Carolina
9. Tom Coburn- Oklahoma
10. Jim Demint- South Carolina
11. John Thune- South Dakota
12. Bob Bennett- Utah

Anyway predict away.

[nmnita]

boy, I don't know nor does anyone at this time: Of course it goes without saying the Republicans will pick up some seats, this almost always happens in off years, the party in control loses some seats.

I am not going through the entire list, nor do I know the situation in all of them. Mass having a special election probably won't help the Republicans.

I know Lincoln, here in AR is in trouble from both sides and I have felt for a long time Reid is gone in NV and Dodd certainly will have his hands full. I don't see many Republicans in trouble, but I don't know all of them.

It is an interesting survey to say the least. I will be anxious to see how others feel.

Nita

[CityPerson09]

I've been saying that I think DE-AL is most likely a Dem pick up, probably LA-02 as well.

VA-05 with Perriello may be a Rep. gain, he seems to be voting in lock step with the Dems while in a slightly Republican District. ID-01, AL-02 given how conservative those districts area and the narrow margin of victory. OH-15 also may be another Republican pick up just looking at the razor thin victory margin.

The House is a much harder beast to guesstimate than the Senate because of the number of races, I think a GOP net gain of 7-15. There are a lot of Dems holding seats that Dems shouldn't be holding. I wish I had enough time to look at all the races.

[LauraC]

My Congressman is running for Governor. That's why he is giving up his House Seat. My Governor is leaving because of term limits.

I'm afraid other than the Florida primary race (Crist/Rubio) and the Nevada race (Reid). I'm not up on the races enough to comment at this time.

Thank you for the info, though. I'll do some homework.

[Smash255]

Anyway some of my predictions

First the House

Dem pickups
DE-AL, IL-10, LA-2, PA-6

Rep pickups
AL-2, ID-1, LA-3, MD-1, MS-1, VA-5

That comes out to GOP +2. Overall I would say a 5-8 seat GOP gain. Outside of a few other districts I do not see where the GOP will be able to possibly pick up seats. Obviously as more time goes on, if we get more retirements, and we get a stronger picture of who the challengers are we will have a better picture, but as of now its hard to see all that many seats that actually have a decent chance of flipping.

As for the Senate.

Dems pickup the open seats in New Hampshire & Missouri, GOP picks up Dodd's seat. I also see Sestak knocking off Specter in the Primary and winning the General. Overall a one seat Dem pick up. That isn't to say I don't see the potential of other pickups.

Dem incumbents who are vulnerable are Bennett in Colorado, Reid in Nevada, and Lincoln in Arkansas. The Delaware seat is also one to watch, and if Beau Biden decides not to run I think the GOP is likely to pick the seat up. He hasn't made an official decision yet (will make it in Jan), but I think it is likely he will run.

As far as other GOP possibly vulnerable seats. The open seat in Ohio, is certainly one that the Dems might be able to pick off, probably the Dems best chances outside of NH & MO. The LA seat with Vitter's could be vulnerable though I expect him to hold on. Burr's seat in NC, I think he is likely to hold on, the possible strongest challenges have decided not to run, though this could be interesting if anyone changes their mind. The Florida seat, likely to go th the GOP either way, but Crist would likely be safer for the GOP.

Now this is just my preliminary prediction, I will likely make adjustments to it as more possible retirements are known and the various races shape up. If you want to be critical feel free, but at least have the ability to back up your criticisms.

[CityPerson09]

Do you think Dodd is more likely to get knocked off over Reid or Lincoln? I know Dodd is unpopular but Reid is the majority leader and the NRSC and RNC are going to pound away at him and it could be a more nationalized race with more conservatives sending money to Nevada. Obviously Lincoln has been close to front and center over health care and if the conservatives in Arkansas rally hard enough she could be an easy take down.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by CityPerson09

Do you think Dodd is more likely to get knocked off over Reid or Lincoln? I know Dodd is unpopular but Reid is the majority leader and the NRSC and RNC are going to pound away at him and it could be a more nationalized race with more conservatives sending money to Nevada. Obviously Lincoln has been close to front and center over health care and if the conservatives in Arkansas rally hard enough she could be an easy take down.

It is quite hard to knock off the Majority Leader, granted Daschile was knocked off, but it was close, with a very strong challenger, in a much more Republican state. Also the state GOP is having numerous problems of their owns with the scandals of both Gibbons & Ensign.

As far as Arkansas while it has become Republican on the Presidential level, the state is still fundamentally Democratic at the local and state level (outside of the NW portion of the state). The state is socially conservative, but outside the NW portion is not economically conservative. While the attacks on health care might hurt Lincoln a bit, they are unlikely to hurt as much in Arkansas as it would in other southern states.

As far as CT goes, I'm really not sure to be honest what will happen. Early on it looked like Dodd was in trouble than he rebounded, but now he is down a bit again. So its hard to say what will happen. Also Simmons is a moderate, and probably the only Republican outside of Gov Rell (who is a bit further left) that can win statewide. If Simmons does not win the Primary, I think it will be unlikely for the GOP to pick it up. Simmons is also a much stronger challenger than anyone Reid or Lincoln are currently facing.

[Sunny-Days-in-Florida]

Way to early to tell.

The only concrete loss in Harry Reid. I see him as a goner even this early.

Other then that, things can change many times between now and then.

And either way.

To much happening to even take a guess.

I cannot ever remember so much going on in America during the mid term elections like it is today.

1994 comes close but not with the major events going on like today.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by Sunny-Days90

Way to early to tell.

The only concrete loss in Harry Reid. I see him as a goner even this early.

Other then that, things can change many times between now and then.

And either way.

To much happening to even take a guess.

I cannot ever remember so much going on in America during the mid term elections like it is today.

1994 comes close but not with the major events going on like today.

I think despite his current weak standing Reid will hold on, the challengers don't appear to be that strong. Also the Nevada State GOP is in **** poor shape and its two most prominent members are up to their eyeballs in scandal.

[case44]

I predict there will be a whirlwind sweep all across the board, and although I can't predict the exact numbers, I believe you will see a major shift back to a Republican majority in both the House and Senate in 2010. Many Americans are going to let it be known at the polls that we will not have a Socialist agenda running things in this country. Let's get back our freedom, and I think that will be the tone of a good many folks when it comes time to make our selections. Election Day will be a telling story.