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Old 05-18-2010, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,984,873 times
Reputation: 7118

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Quote:
Just because a well entrenched incumbent is able to hold the seat for a long time it does not mean its of that incumbents party.
Sorry, but for 32 years - it's a democrat seat.

And the state is also Blue, for almost 20, in case you selectively ignore that FACT as well.
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Old 05-18-2010, 10:52 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,205 posts, read 19,490,239 times
Reputation: 5308
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Sorry, but for 32 years - it's a democrat seat.

And the state is also Blue, for almost 20, in case you selectively ignore that FACT as well.
Yes, the seat had a well entrenched incumbent Democrat. That does not mean the district is staunchly Democratic, just like back in 2005 it didn't mean the seats Chris Shays and Nancy Johnson were representing were staunchly Republican even though both were in the seat for well over 20 years.
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Old 05-18-2010, 10:53 PM
 
Location: Aloha, Oregon
1,089 posts, read 656,166 times
Reputation: 208
Boy oh boy, there is so much spin coming from the right in this thread I'm getting dizzy.
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Old 05-18-2010, 11:04 PM
 
13,186 posts, read 14,991,400 times
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Don't think for a minute Spector is out. He could run as an independent as Lieberman did and very well still win it.

* Actually thinking about this again. Lieberman won because there was no credible GOP candidate in the race. That may not be the case this time.

Last edited by padcrasher; 05-18-2010 at 11:13 PM..
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Old 05-18-2010, 11:19 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,205 posts, read 19,490,239 times
Reputation: 5308
Quote:
Originally Posted by padcrasher View Post
Don't think for a minute Spector is out. He could run as an independent as Lieberman did and very well still win it.

* Actually thinking about this again. Lieberman won because there was no credible GOP candidate in the race. That may not be the case this time.
I'm pretty sure PA law doesn't allow someone to run as an Independent who lost in a Primary.
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Old 05-18-2010, 11:57 PM
 
2,654 posts, read 5,470,010 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlassoff View Post
Wow, professor! Such superb analysis! Where did you get your political science degree?

I think tonight has proven there IS anti-incumbent sentiment out there. However all things being even it looks like the Dems are going to retain Murtha's seat in the special election-- in a Republican district.

So perhaps the republican celebration is premature... while there is anti-incumbent sentiment, there is not a new rush of pro-republican sentiment.
Hey professor, Murtha was a dem and held the seat for 30 years. How's that a "Republican district"
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Old 05-19-2010, 12:04 AM
 
13,186 posts, read 14,991,400 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OC Investor2 View Post
Hey professor, Murtha was a dem and held the seat for 30 years. How's that a "Republican district"
If you're not able to educate yourself why this is a Republican district, not to mention it's an OPEN SEAT and Murtha is dead...you should be investing in very low risk investments......CD's and Money Markets. Anything else you're asking be slaughtered like a pig..OC Investor.....LOL
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:00 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,984,873 times
Reputation: 7118
Quote:
Originally Posted by padcrasher View Post
Don't think for a minute Spector is out. He could run as an independent as Lieberman did and very well still win it.

* Actually thinking about this again. Lieberman won because there was no credible GOP candidate in the race. That may not be the case this time.
Because the GOP promised NOT to campaign against Joe.
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:01 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,984,873 times
Reputation: 7118
Quote:
Originally Posted by padcrasher View Post
If you're not able to educate yourself why this is a Republican district, not to mention it's an OPEN SEAT and Murtha is dead...you should be investing in very low risk investments......CD's and Money Markets. Anything else you're asking be slaughtered like a pig..OC Investor.....LOL
Of course it's not a republican district, not when Murtha, a staunch pelosi supporter had been ensconced in the seat for three decades, not when democrats hold a 2-1 advantage in voter registration.
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Old 05-19-2010, 06:55 AM
 
24,438 posts, read 23,103,140 times
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So what happened with Specter and Obama? Specter did use Obama in his last minute ads and he lost. But Obama also refused to stump for Specter and he lost. So did Obama hurt him or help him? I think Obama was told to stay away given that Specter was trailing and it wasn't close enough to make a difference either way. Voter turnout in Philly was low compared to the rest of the state.
Obama won in that he stayed away and avoided getting blamed completely for Specter's defeat. Rendell didn't do Specter much good either. Expect Obama to stay away from any close elections this fall. He's getting more like Bush every day.
The bottom line: People voted for the candidate and pretty much ignored what the party leaders told them. That's always a good sign.
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