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A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arkansas, taken Wednesday night, shows Boozman, the winner of Tuesday’s state GOP Primary, with 66% support in a match-up with Senator Blanche Lincoln. The Democratic incumbent picks up just 28% of the vote.
If Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter is his opponent, Boozman, currently the state’s only GOP congressman, earns 60% of the vote to the Democrat’s 33%.
This would be a nice pickup.
This is Boozmans first statewide candidacy - against 2 dems who are old pros.
Boozman does very well in the Third district, his home district, but he's not very well known in the rest of the state. Some voters who are eager to vote out the incumbent, and who are not pleased with Halter's liberalism, may find themselves disenchanted with Boozman as they get closer to election time. He's a nice guy, but will he represent the state, or simply go along with the Republican party? He's pretty much been a yes-man to the GOP since he was elected. Personally, I'd prefer someone a little more independent, and perhaps less inclined to say that God is directing all his votes. I don't know, but GOD and GOP are not synonymous in my mind.
Boozman does very well in the Third district, his home district, but he's not very well known in the rest of the state. Some voters who are eager to vote out the incumbent, and who are not pleased with Halter's liberalism, may find themselves disenchanted with Boozman as they get closer to election time. He's a nice guy, but will he represent the state, or simply go along with the Republican party? He's pretty much been a yes-man to the GOP since he was elected. Personally, I'd prefer someone a little more independent, and perhaps less inclined to say that God is directing all his votes. I don't know, but GOD and GOP are not synonymous in my mind.
DC, if this really was the total situation and he wasn't well known outside the third district do you really think he would have beat 7 others without any run off? We all know where you stand on the issues, we all have opinions and you certainly have every right to hold yours. In fact I respect your views, you know that. I will add, as much as you can't believe a Republican can beat any Democrat in this state, I think you are going to have to re-think this. By the time Lincoln and Halter get finished blasting each other, it might very well be over. Of course we all know anything can happen in 5 months, and no, I doubt Boozman will win by 20 percentage points, but I do think he will win and fairly easily. If Lincoln beats Halter many liberals will not bother to go to the polls in November..
DC, if this really was the total situation and he wasn't well known outside the third district do you really think he would have beat 7 others without any run off? We all know where you stand on the issues, we all have opinions and you certainly have every right to hold yours. In fact I respect your views, you know that. I will add, as much as you can't believe a Republican can beat any Democrat in this state, I think you are going to have to re-think this. By the time Lincoln and Halter get finished blasting each other, it might very well be over. Of course we all know anything can happen in 5 months, and no, I doubt Boozman will win by 20 percentage points, but I do think he will win and fairly easily. If Lincoln beats Halter many liberals will not bother to go to the polls in November..
Nita
Actually, yeah. 7 others split the vote up around the other part of the state. The 3rd District is and has been the Republican stronghold, so it's going to have the most cohesive voting pattern. And Boozman is the 3rd District's Representative. I think that Boozman consolidated his support in one of the most populous and politically active parts of the state, and the other seven split it up. Also, the other districts aren't Republican. Boozman didn't have to capture as many votes in those areas to dominate, he only had to dominate the 3rd District.
I never said I don't think a Republican can beat any Democrat in this state. My argument has been that people who live in the very Republican 3rd District have a tendency to over-estimate the Republican chances in the state overall, a state whose other three districts have consistently and dependably elected Democrats to the House of Representatives, and a state that's only had one Republican Senator since Reconstruction. People who live in the 3rd District where Republicans are so dominant that they regularly run for office unchallenged by Democrats, and rightly perceive the state to be conservative, don't always understand that in other parts of the state, the reverse is true, Democrats are so dominant in some places that they regularly run for office unchallenged by Republicans. Given that, I think that there is a tendency for Republicans, who are strongest in our most populous areas (a reversal of the national trend), to be over-confident.
That said, I think Lincoln as a centrist has much better odds against Boozman, and I think would serve us better in the Senate, simply because she has demonstrated repeatedly the backbone to stand up to her party. I've met Representative Boozman several times, and he's a very nice man. But when Arkansas' interests aren't served by the GOP, is Senator Boozman going to be able to stand up to his party? I don't see it.
But it will be up to the voters, not to me (as I'm sure you're very glad!). Boozman's chances are very good. I think it will be a close race, but closer with Lincoln as his opponent than Halter (he's been helped in the primary by the support of national unions and moveon.org, but his statements that he is the candidate that doesn't owe anything to special interests is belied by his financing). I also respect your opinion, but having lived in Arkansas for much longer, I have a different perspective, one I think looks at Arkansas as a whole rather than looking at Arkansas from just the 3rd District.
DC, if this really was the total situation and he wasn't well known outside the third district do you really think he would have beat 7 others without any run off? We all know where you stand on the issues, we all have opinions and you certainly have every right to hold yours. In fact I respect your views, you know that. I will add, as much as you can't believe a Republican can beat any Democrat in this state, I think you are going to have to re-think this. By the time Lincoln and Halter get finished blasting each other, it might very well be over. Of course we all know anything can happen in 5 months, and no, I doubt Boozman will win by 20 percentage points, but I do think he will win and fairly easily. If Lincoln beats Halter many liberals will not bother to go to the polls in November..
Nita
I did a very quick overview of some of the results of the Primary. I didn't really punch any numbers and did it very quickly in my head from just a glance, however it does appear close to 40% of Primary voters were from his district. He also dominated that area, winning 65-80%+ in his district, probably getting overall around 70% in his district, with probably around 40% outside of it.
Actually, yeah. 7 others split the vote up around the other part of the state. The 3rd District is and has been the Republican stronghold, so it's going to have the most cohesive voting pattern. And Boozman is the 3rd District's Representative. I think that Boozman consolidated his support in one of the most populous and politically active parts of the state, and the other seven split it up. Also, the other districts aren't Republican. Boozman didn't have to capture as many votes in those areas to dominate, he only had to dominate the 3rd District.
I never said I don't think a Republican can beat any Democrat in this state. My argument has been that people who live in the very Republican 3rd District have a tendency to over-estimate the Republican chances in the state overall, a state whose other three districts have consistently and dependably elected Democrats to the House of Representatives, and a state that's only had one Republican Senator since Reconstruction. People who live in the 3rd District where Republicans are so dominant that they regularly run for office unchallenged by Democrats, and rightly perceive the state to be conservative, don't always understand that in other parts of the state, the reverse is true, Democrats are so dominant in some places that they regularly run for office unchallenged by Republicans. Given that, I think that there is a tendency for Republicans, who are strongest in our most populous areas (a reversal of the national trend), to be over-confident.
That said, I think Lincoln as a centrist has much better odds against Boozman, and I think would serve us better in the Senate, simply because she has demonstrated repeatedly the backbone to stand up to her party. I've met Representative Boozman several times, and he's a very nice man. But when Arkansas' interests aren't served by the GOP, is Senator Boozman going to be able to stand up to his party? I don't see it.
But it will be up to the voters, not to me (as I'm sure you're very glad!). Boozman's chances are very good. I think it will be a close race, but closer with Lincoln as his opponent than Halter (he's been helped in the primary by the support of national unions and moveon.org, but his statements that he is the candidate that doesn't owe anything to special interests is belied by his financing). I also respect your opinion, but having lived in Arkansas for much longer, I have a different perspective, one I think looks at Arkansas as a whole rather than looking at Arkansas from just the 3rd District.
some of what you say is probably pretty true, but I see it a little different.
Did you say a Republican couldn't? Acutally you did pretty mcuh but I would have to go through a lot of responses to find out where. I am thinking it might have been when Halter got into the race, but I am not sure. You may not have said, a Republican couldn't but you pointed out it never happens in so many words.
Yes, the Republican strong hold his all of NWA but how do you explain the popularity of the Republican party right now in Snyder's district? There is a very good chance the Democrats will lose there.
Yes, you certainly have lived here much longer than I but that isn't really the point nor is the point what is better for AR. Of course we all care about what will help our state, as it should be, but we are discussing the upcoming election and who will win..
I did a very quick overview of some of the results of the Primary. I didn't really punch any numbers and did it very quickly in my head from just a glance, however it does appear close to 40% of Primary voters were from his district. He also dominated that area, winning 65-80%+ in his district, probably getting overall around 70% in his district, with probably around 40% outside of it.
AS was said at a recent meet and greet of candidates, if you have to consintrate on any area, make sure it is NWA, they are the ones that vote. This is something we all need to think about. It is sad in some ways, but a fact. I so have to add though, everyone has to take in to consideration, there isn't even going to be a run off, that tells us something. BTW, I did not vote for him..
Nita
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