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In due time, it could have been even richer but now it's too late.
Even less with the EU, monetary union.. The politicians in favour "junts pel si" need a boil or two, they have a few quacks there.
The real goal is the right to manage taxes, and not to send tax remittances or "solidarity funds" to Andalusia, Extremadura, etc. To have what the Basques have, with no violence.
Catalonia would be the 14th economy, behind Danemark and above Finland, but such scenario is not real since GDP will probably dwindle more than half after a possible secession.
More than half??? Really??? That's preposterous.
Why do people say with a straight face that one of the richest parts of Spain (with the Basque country) if it separates will become destitute?
What happens to the rest of Spain's economy if Catalonia leaves?
I'd surmise that if Catalonia were to separate, it would take hit in the first few years but still be in the same range (per capita) as Finland, Italy, Slovenia, etc.
As a matter of fact, I kind of am. I've been studying independence movements around the world (including in my own country) for about 25-30 years.
It doesn't have to "work for me" one way or the other, as I am not a proponent of Quebec independence.
Excuse me, I didn't know I was talking to an scholar, any white papers in the subject worth reading?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack
More than half??? Really??? That's preposterous.
Why do people say with a straight face that one of the richest parts of Spain (with the Basque country) if it separates will become destitute?
What happens to the rest of Spain's economy if Catalonia leaves?
I'd surmise that if Catalonia were to separate, it would take hit in the first few years but still be in the same range (per capita) as Finland, Italy, Slovenia, etc.
To be honest, I couldn't tell how much their GDP would shrink, but I can try a ball-part estimate. They would become the fifth economy in the region (and for region I am talking the Iberian peninsula) behind Madrid, Andalusia, Valencia and Basque Country. Catalonia is currently number one followed but those regions in that exact order, however an independent Catalonia will loose the European Union market which would leave them with barely 7 million internal market, not enough to become Finland or Italy (wth! comparing Catalonia's economy with Italy's. Italy is a heavy weight worldwide, in fact 8th economy by GDP, Catalonia doesn't come even close to that!). Local companies and multinationals with regional establishments in Catalonia have already said that they will follow the market, Valencia would become the harbor of choice for the Peninsula for the European market area, and their internal market is not rich (average annual income is not high). Catalonia will still have the tourism industry as long as they don't tax them to death for revenues, but that's not an industry of high margins and high salaries....
By the way, all of the above is very well known by the powers to be in Catalonia, as I said, there is a reason they have not become independent already.
How is it that Catalonia is supposedly the wealthiest part of Spain? Are there more corporations based there? Do the people worker harder and save more money than people in the rest of Spain?
- Barcelona is a very popular city, which attracts investment, tourists, etc. One might say Catalonia is Barcelona and surroundings
- There is a general north-south divide in Spain, maybe due to the different history. The north also has an industrial history. Catalonia is not the only successful region in Spain, the Basque country and Navarra are also doing well.
It shows for instance in the unemployment rate: http://www.abc.es/Media/201407/24/ta...s--478x478.jpg
Why do people say with a straight face that one of the richest parts of Spain (with the Basque country) if it separates will become destitute?
What happens to the rest of Spain's economy if Catalonia leaves?
I'd surmise that if Catalonia were to separate, it would take hit in the first few years but still be in the same range (per capita) as Finland, Italy, Slovenia, etc.
Nobody knows what could happen, but all those catastrophic claims (in both directions) are ridiculous.
Catalonia can survive perfectly as an independent country. Yeah, the first years would be a little hard but it can recover quickly. Say that the GDP will fall more than half is simply funny. Catalonia is one of the richest places in Southern Europe, and it would still be as an independent country.
And the independence of Catalonia would have little economic effect for the rest of Spain, since the weight of the Catalan economy is not as important as decades ago. And the same, the first years it could go through difficulties, but nothing more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mouldy Old Schmo
How is it that Catalonia is supposedly the wealthiest part of Spain? Are there more corporations based there? Do the people worker harder and save more money than people in the rest of Spain?
Well, actually is not the wealthiest, Madrid, Basque Country and Navarra are wealthier, and La Rioja, Balearic Islands and Aragon are not far behind.
There are several reasons why it is one of the richest parts, historical, political, economic or geographical. Like early industrialization, closer to European trade routes, skilled population, many corporations based there, Central government protectionism...
Unfortunately, saving money is not one of those reasons, Catalonia is one of Spain's most highly indebted areas, if not the most.
Why do people say with a straight face that one of the richest parts of Spain (with the Basque country) if it separates will become destitute?
What happens to the rest of Spain's economy if Catalonia leaves?
I'd surmise that if Catalonia were to separate, it would take hit in the first few years but still be in the same range (per capita) as Finland, Italy, Slovenia, etc.
I'm even more catastrophist...and I voted "Junts pel Si" (Independentist) because I know that independence is just a chimera, a fantasy.
Most people voted "yes" to Independence to squeeze Madrid by the ears and obtain a better tax law, the right to manage taxes as in the Basque country and Navarre (that's why they are richer, they don't send tax remittances to the south).
Catalonia would take a tremendous hit because, first of all, the new nation would be expelled from the EU (Junckers dixit)....EU is the main Catalan market, most large Spanish banks would retrench, including La Caixa (Europe's largest Saving and Loan and Catalan in origin).....
Companies, what is SEAT (VW) going to to with all the SEAT that produces in Martorell? Sell them to the Russians? What about Cava - Catalan Sparklings - their main markets in the EU...
What about tourism?
And the model in the oven is not a liberal one, just like Andorra, but a highly interventionist government with leanings to the extreme left...when Catalan nationalists are right....that would provoke a systemic failure and disaster that would add a new dimension, ethnic divide between catalans and Spanish immigrants that are a majority here and that are a little tad worried when they don't see any "Sánchez" or "González" in the new government, etc, etc,
How is it that Catalonia is supposedly the wealthiest part of Spain? Are there more corporations based there? Do the people worker harder and save more money than people in the rest of Spain?
That was in the past.. "els catalans de les pedres fan pa" (catalans make bread out of stone) (a very ancient saying).
During the last 40 years, industry has been shifting to Madrid and other areas due to political reasons....tax breaks granted by Spain to industries allocating to Madrid, the advantage of being were politicians are (very important here), the astronomical Spanish investments in Madrid....stupid and interventionist autonomical governments in Catalonia..many populist and irrational people, taxes, taxes, regulations..when thre were almost no taxes before....and billions sent to Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla la Mancha so they can live without having to work (PER) drinking their cañitas in a bar.
Just imagine how stupid those governments in Madrid were, that they built the first High Speed Train (AVE) between Madrid and Sevilla in 1992, and not between Madrid and Barcelona...Sevilla is a third rate city with no industry. Not to mention highways, etc.
Catalonia would take a tremendous hit because, first of all, the new nation would be expelled from the EU (Junckers dixit)....EU is the main Catalan market, most large Spanish banks would retrench, including La Caixa (Europe's largest Saving and Loan and Catalan in origin).....
.
Does anyone really believe that an independent Catalonia wouldn't be able to get admitted into the EU? The EU has Bulgaria and Romania in it, but they won't let Catalonia back in? Really????
Juncker won't be head of the EU forever, and he's just saying this in order to not weaken the position of his anti-separatist status quo buddy Rajoy in Madrid.
Money talks, BS walks. You can bet an independent Catalonia would be part of the EU fairly quickly. This is true of an independent Scotland as well BTW.
Last edited by Acajack; 10-03-2015 at 07:15 AM..
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