Have two party systems died?

[J.Thomas]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

I wouldn't say the two-party systems are dying. I look at it differently; what's happening is that extremist groups are rising and gaining a bit of traction due to immigration issues, mainly, and/or ethnic politics, however you want to describe it. Those elements were always present in society, but the immigration crises in Europe and the US are giving them a platform they feel is legitimate, so they're coming out of the woodwork and asserting themselves in a way that wasn't acceptable before. In the past, it was more of an underground current, and now it's come above-ground.

How long the trend lasts is anybody's guess. I think (I hope) these "new" parties or movements will remain a fringe phenomenon in most places, but the rise of nationalism/xenophobia, whatever you want to call it, is a bit worrisome.

They need to polish their images.

Just put a cloak on it.

[improb]

Originally Posted by lukas1973

In Germany (after WWII) we had for most of the time just 3 parties. The conservatives CDU/CSU, the social democrats SPD and the liberals FDP. Until the reunification CDU/CSU and SPD normally achieved election results of more than 40%. The FDP normally about 5-10%. In the early 80s the greens Grüne entered many state parliaments and also the federal parliament. At the beginning they weren't considered able to govern at least not in the federal government. But that has changed. At the moment we have 4 "staatstragende" (underpinning the state) parties. CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP and Grüne. All those parties make a reasonable policy. And they are able to form a coaltion with each other. By the reunifiation we get our 5. party, the Left party "Die Linke" the successor party of the former SED (Socialist Unity Party of East Germany). They are able to govern in East German states, but not on the federal level.
Now we seem to get a 6. party, the AFD. It's an extreme right-wing party or a national-conservative party. So far mostly elected by protest voters. They still don't have a party program. It's not clear whether this party will remain or disappear. When they only try to get protest voters, then they will disappear, but I guess that they will develope a party program. Most likely that they will become a national-conservative party to the right of the CDU/CSU. The CDU under Merkel has adopted several more social democratic positions, it seems that there is now a place for a party right of the CDU. But it would take quite a lot of time until this party will be able to govern.
Most of the political work is done in commissions, that normally ensures that new parties will change their absurd positions to more reasonable positions. We have seen it by the Grüne, also by Die Linke and most likely we will see it by the AFD.
Germany is a rather consensus-oriented country. People expect that politicians cooperate with each other and find a solution together.
The second chamber in Germany, the Bundesrat has 69 votes. In many German states the Grüne are part of the state governments. The Grüne could block 41 of the 69 votes. Many laws need approval in the Bundesrat. The grand coalition out of CDU/CSU and SPD constantly has to talk with the Grüne for legislation. That works very well. Much better than for example in the 90s, where the SPD constantly blocked the CDU/CSU+FDP coalition.
One should think that more parties could mean unstable governments, but that doesn't seem the case in Germany. The differences between the 4 "staatstragende" parties CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne and FDP, aren't that big any more. It seems very different to the situation in the U.S.

Here is a nice YT video about political campaign ads in the U.S., the UK and Germany:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG_76NAzo9Y

Has FDP ever polled higher than 15% or won anywhere near the same numbers as SPD and CDU. If not, i have a hard time considering what you used to have a three party system, especially when both CDU and SPD achieved 40% without problems

Anyway, the ability to compromise and to find a middle ground is something which has often been lacking in Italy and that makes me admire German politics. I have lost count of the Italian coalition governments that had fallen after a couple points because of the unwillingness to compromise. That carries until now when Five Star Movement refuses to support any policy the government carries (just so they couldn't be talked of as part of the establishment or helping it in anyway ), even the ones they and their electors agree on

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

I wouldn't say the two-party systems are dying. I look at it differently; what's happening is that extremist groups are rising and gaining a bit of traction due to immigration issues, mainly, and/or ethnic politics, however you want to describe it. Those elements were always present in society, but the immigration crises in Europe and the US are giving them a platform they feel is legitimate, so they're coming out of the woodwork and asserting themselves in a way that wasn't acceptable before. In the past, it was more of an underground current, and now it's come above-ground.

How long the trend lasts is anybody's guess. I think (I hope) these "new" parties or movements will remain a fringe phenomenon in most places, but the rise of nationalism/xenophobia, whatever you want to call it, is a bit worrisome.

I don't know, it isn't only groups that are skeptical of immigration issue. Neither Ciudadanos nor Podemos are against immigration, the same goes for the Greens and SNP in Britain, Five Star Movement in Italy, ecc. Right wing parties with anti-immigration policies are just a little part of a more complicated puzzle

[bale002]

Originally Posted by improb

... anti-immigration policies are just a little part of a more complicated puzzle

I agree.

All the moving parts are integrated in some way or another: e.g. the organization of production and distribution, energy policy, trade policy, immigration policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, wages, regulations, weapons policy, war policy, etc., all in a context of a new paradigm of information system and telecommunications technology.

What are the contours of a body politic nowadays?

In the countries of early industrialization, the body politic as a nation-state was already several centuries in the making and it will not simply pass away with barely a murmur, it may take another century or two and with a lot of shouting, pushing and shoving.

Stark either/or propositions are relatively rare in life, more common is both ... and ..., both ... and ..., both ... and ... like walking and chewing gum at the same time.

In other words, it is not a question of globalization or not, for example, but at what pace and shape.

After some 25-30 years of relatively rapid speed, the pace is slowing, for many reasons including certain natural laws of economics which transcend policies.

And that has ramifications for trade, immigration, other demographics, the organization of production and distribution, moneyness, government spending and taxation, wages, regulations, etc., and in short, the contours of bodies politic.

It appears that in the countries of early industrialization, as well as other countries, where average people participate in shaping the body politic through the vote, both two-party systems and proportional representation systems are changing against the backdrop outlined above, and the outcome is still uncertain.

In the next few months and years, Europeans, generally speaking, will have to make decisions on their internal path to integration, whether to speed it up, slow it down, and, if so, in what shape, or perhaps in some cases withdrawal.

And overall throughout the world, there are forces going in the direction of de-gearing, perhaps unhinging and withdrawal, and forces that want to, well, force a more rapid pace of integration.

We'll see.