Sweden reinstates conscription (facts, time, areas, Finland)
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Interesting to see this happen. Seems like Russia is becoming more and more of a worry - what do you think Ariete? Do you think Russia would actually attempt something in the Nordics?
Attempting a military invasion? No. But it will keep influencing us in different ways. Information war, cyber attacks, political pressure, violating air space, espionage. The same things they have been doing for quite a while.
Attempting a military invasion? No. But it will keep influencing us in different ways. Information war, cyber attacks, political pressure, violating air space, espionage. The same things they have been doing for quite a while.
I understand that Sweden is not in NATO, but taking in consideration that Americans are sending a signal that they want to cut their military spending in Europe on one hand, and on another hand since the local military in Scandinavian countries don't seem to have enough of *volunteers,* the next logical step is probably the draft.
Although I still can't wrap my mind around how Crimea can be related to all that. I mean what is a "resurgent Russia?" What it supposed to be? Did anyone think that if Americans were planning to take over Russian navy base in Crimea, where Russian ships were stationed from...1758 ( or whatever,) Russians would have said "sure no problem, go right ahead"? And since Russians took the preventive measures against such scenario, it meant right away that Russia was "resurgent," and somehow Sweden ( or Norway,) felt immediately *threatened* ?
But Russia was "resurgent" already back in 2008, when it backed the Ossetian "separatists" against Georgia, where Americans (once more) were advancing their own interests.
I mean how come Sweden didn't feel threatened right away after this Russian resurgence?
Is it because Trump was not in the office yet?
This incoherent rant makes no sense. Why would the Americans "take over" something in Ukraine, and what does this even mean? Where are the Americans right now in Ukraine? Nowhere.
Ukraine had leased the Sevastopol naval base to Russia until 2042, and would've probably continued the lease with another 99 years.
Crimea is extremely relevant. Russia has for the first time since 1945 changed the borders of Europe by military force. It did so because it was possible, and Ukraine didn't have a credible defence. The aim of Finland and Sweden is to prevent that Russia won't even consider an invasion.
I wonder if Russia is really the main reason for this move.
That's pretty obvious it is. The one thing a (part) conscript army is good for is territorial defence from a neighbour, and Norway, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Poland, or the Baltic states are not likely intruders. It is less of use in e.g. Afghanistan or other places in the world Sweden has had forces.
A full-scale invasion is highly unlikely, and would have to go through Finland and/or NATO member Norway and/or by a naval landing. If a future Russian leader were to decide to do something like that Swedish forces on their own would be unlikely to be able repel such an invasion, surrender would likely come within 1-2 weeks even without nuclear blackmail. This isn't much of a concern in the Nordic countries in part because it is so unlikely and in part because it is a losing move by Russia. Also Sweden was during the Cold War as it is now practically a de facto NATO member. Even an invasion through Finland is likely to involve NATO.
The more likely scenario is Russia applying pressure on the Baltic states. A full-scale invasion would be far more overwhelming. It would not take 1-2 weeks, but 1-2 days until surrender, something which is too quick for NATO to come with significant reinforcement. Such a scenario would be likely to affect Finland and Sweden as well even though neither are members of NATO, and even if Russian military operations were staying out of their territory.
Then there are less outright "temporary" intrusions, as listed previously.
So what could Swedish conscripts do? Short term not a lot. 4000 conscripts aren't many. That's the same as Denmark, half as many as Norway, a seventh of Finland. All three countries have half the population of Sweden. It gives military units a bit more flexibility, and the country access to more soldiers in case of a full mobilisation, neither of which are likely to have a major impact in such an event.
A conscript army is necessary for Finland to fullfill the 'total defence' doctrine, which means that the whole society will be mobilised for the war effort. The aim is to inflict so much losses against the attacker that no gain can be justified for the losses taken.
A Finnish-Russian war would neither be some fancy TV war like Iraq with drones flying and filming the thing, but total brutal war of annhilation like Vietnam. And Russia knows this.
A Finnish-Russian war...they'd never attack Finland if not sold previously by former allies.
No, in Irak the cream of the crop of Russian technology was annihilated in hours by Americans, the "famous" Mig 28 did not even dared to take off. The "famous" Russian tanks were annihilated by copters in a couple of days.
Leaving atomic arsenal aside, NATO could perform OPERATION BARBAROSSA II in three weeks.
Britain has traditionally played a significant role in NATO's Northern Flank with 3 Commando Brigade Royal Marines being committed to it's defence, however with the withdrawl of British Forces from Germany, there may be a concentration of Britain's efforts on the Northern Flank coupled with rapid reaction forces.
The Swedish and many other countries in Europe are improving their defences and increasing defence spending and this should be welcomed by other allied countries and the US.
Sweden and Finland are currently considering whether to joint the British Led Joint Expeditionary Force.
That is probably gonna happen. Finland has already agreed to join a similar task force led by Germany, but these differ a bit and the English proposal has been said to be "interesting".
I understand that Sweden is not in NATO, but taking in consideration that Americans are sending a signal that they want to cut their military spending in Europe on one hand, and on another hand since the local military in Scandinavian countries don't seem to have enough of *volunteers,* the next logical step is probably the draft.
Although I still can't wrap my mind around how Crimea can be related to all that. I mean what is a "resurgent Russia?" What it supposed to be? Did anyone think that if Americans were planning to take over Russian navy base in Crimea, where Russian ships were stationed from...1758 ( or whatever,) Russians would have said "sure no problem, go right ahead"? And since Russians took the preventive measures against such scenario, it meant right away that Russia was "resurgent," and somehow Sweden ( or Norway,) felt immediately *threatened* ?
But Russia was "resurgent" already back in 2008, when it backed the Ossetian "separatists" against Georgia, where Americans (once more) were advancing their own interests.
I mean how come Sweden didn't feel threatened right away after this Russian resurgence?
Is it because Trump was not in the office yet?
You must stay up at night pondering how the US is going to get you. Watch out of the black helicopters.
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