[chopchop0]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...mp_138644.html

Before the midterms there were countless reports that Republican candidates across the nation were in danger of “losing” white college-educated women voters, a key bellwether demographic.

So how did the Sunshine State fare with these highly engaged voters? The answer is “crash and burn.”

When compared to Trump’s support in 2016, both Scott and DeSantis shed 18 percentage points’ worth of college-educated white women. According to 2016 exit polls, Trump won 60 percent of these women, while Scott and DeSantis won only 42 percent. That trend spells disaster for the GOP in 2020.

Conversely (and noteworthy) in 2016, only 37 percent of white college-educated Florida women voted for Hillary Clinton. But in 2018, Nelson won 58 percent of this politically active demographic while Gillum won 57 percent, a 20-point increase in just two years.

Another ominous sign for Florida Republicans revealed in last week’s midterm was that college-educated white women comprised only 13 percent of the electorate, down from 18 percent in 2016. But in 2020 — especially if Democrats nominate a candidate who energizes this bloc and manages to increase their electoral percentage back up to 18 percent or more — President Trump will have difficulty maintaining the 1.2 percent margin of victory with which he won the state in 2016.

Another interesting Florida midterm data point is that women constituted 55 percent of the total electorate compared to 45 percent for men. This 10-point gender gap is up four percentage points from 2016 when women bested men by only six points — 53 percent to 47 percent.

Democrats Nelson and Gillum won women by double digits, but both narrowly lost their races (we think -- stayed tuned). Nelson won women by 56 percent to 43 percent over Scott, and women supported Gillum over DeSantis by essentially the same margin, 55 percent to 43 percent.

So how did Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis eke out the slimmest of victories? The answer is men, men, men.

[bale002]

Two years is an eternity in politics.

Trump may not even be on the ticket.

The economy could be booming. The Fed could engineer a recession.

We could be at peace. We could be at war.


In any case, by law, the only category of voter is individual voter by electoral jurisdiction, of which there are several.

I do not read in the Constitution or electoral law about any other identity.


Finally, a serious individual cannot take these "polling" companies seriously. Ask Brexit, ask Trump, ask Nelson, ask Gillum, and a number of others.

We know what they really are.

[joee5]

Tough due to the election stacked in the favor of them cheating Dems?
This years election was a test to see how far and how much the Dems can get away with before getting caught.

[bmw335xi]

I think it’s clear that polls in Florida are heavily bias toward Democrats. What happened to Gillum’s and Nelson’s 5 point leads?

[kmarc]

LOLOLOLOL!!!!! The mid-terms aren't even over in some states and already the deep state fluffers are hard at it.

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I think it’s clear that polls in Florida are heavily bias toward Democrats. What happened to Gillum’s and Nelson’s 5 point leads?

All results were inside the 538 boxes which were within 1-2% on either side. Obviously - goes without saying that when the "winner" runs the state and the elections and invests tens of millions of his own money (more than the opposition), you get a small "house effect".

But, remember, that was before the new 1.5 million felons could vote. Scott made certain during his term to approve almost none of them. I think Scott reinstated a couple thousands in 8 years, while Christ had done 300,000 in 4 years. Big difference.

One of my big complaints about current politics is that incumbency means so much. This is perfect example. Who is Bill Nelson? I sure never knew! If the Democrats had told him to step aside and found a "Beto of Florida" it likely would have been no contest. But "tradition" means they had to let the existing guy run.

Given the margins in those races, it's hard for anyone to claim "victory". Florida had a 5.4% GOP lean. 5.3% of that was eaten away, even with the most boring candidate on earth (Nelson)...

Nothing happens instantly. But trends are important.
Here are the numbers:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/florida/

Note that Rick Scott was projected to get as much as about 52 to 53%. He was lower but still close to that range. That's the way statistics work.

Sports teams with a 30% chance of winning a particular game win every day....

[bmw335xi]

I agree that the party of crime sympathizers will get most of the ex-felon votes in FL. However, I doubt most of them will vote. The amount of energy of Democrats this election in FL was very high, maybe near max capacity. It will be interesting to see if the turnout is the same in 2020 and if the election is another nail biter less than 0.5%.

[beach43ofus]

The demographic shift in Florida doesn't benefit Republicans. I'm predicting this is their last hoorah. Then, comes the tax and spend party who kills the economy, and everything else in its path.

Detroit, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, New York..and soon Florida. Here comes the wrecking ball.

If you think you can vote the same way in Florida and get different results, then you are insane, and that is exactly what will occur.

Please be realistic with yourselves.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

The demographic shift ...

Everything shifts all the time ... plates, climate, people's voting preferences ...

[RedneckRebel]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

The demographic shift in Florida doesn't benefit Republicans. I'm predicting this is their last hoorah. Then, comes the tax and spend party who kills the economy, and everything else in its path.

Detroit, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, New York..and soon Florida. Here comes the wrecking ball.

If you think you can vote the same way in Florida and get different results, then you are insane, and that is exactly what will occur.

Please be realistic with yourselves.

Dems have been saying that about Florida for years.
Truth is, the more Florida changes, the more it stays the same.