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Since the day I joined this forum I found myself at odds with numerous members regarding the state of the housing market. Most of which believe that we have only begun to see a crash of grand proportions, as many of you know I disagree. Over the last month or so I have been watching the stats
Here are some recent headlines:
Mortgage Bankers Association recent reports:
Recent firmness in mortgage applications and an increase in new-home sales suggest the housing slump may be nearly over…. indexes of applications for home purchases and refinancing have been rising steadily since summer and The four-week moving average for the MBA's purchase index has risen 12% since August while the four-week average for the group's refinancing index has soared more than 41% since July.
The Commerce Department:
said yesterday that new-home sales rose 3.4% in November to an annual rate of 1.05 million units Builders sold new homes at a faster rate last month than they did in October, shrinking the backlog of unsold homes on the market, the Commerce Department reported yesterday The number of new homes on the market last month dropped 1.4% to the lowest level since May The median sales price of a new home rose by 3.2%, reaching $251,700.
Yesterday’s Commerce department report said Last month, there were 545,000 new homes on the market, or the equivalent of a 6.3-month supply at current sales rates, according to the Commerce data, down from a recent high mark of a 7.2-month supply in July
December 28, 2006 it looks like the housing market and home sales appear to have stabilized, " said Thomas Lawler, a former economist for Fannie Mae
Sales of existing homes rose for the second consecutive month in November, a sign of rebounding demand:
The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes last month increased 0.6% from October to an annual rate of 6.28 million units. Spurred by lower interest rates and home prices, sales have now increased in back-to-back months for the first time in more than a year. Together with a recent upturn in the rate of new-home sales, the modest rise in existing-home sales indicates that home-buying activity may be stabilizing after a yearlong downturn
Some Miscellaneous good news:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 12500 for the first time Wednesday
consumer sentiment climbed to 109.0 in December -- the highest since April
Earlier on Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said the number of workers applying for first-time jobless benefits rose 1,000 to 317,000 last week, suggesting stable labor-market conditions. Wall Street economists had expected claims to rise to 320,000.
So I guess that I will hear plenty of statistical data to refute these news reports such the “all I can see in my neighborhood is all those for sale signs up and down the block” or there are lots and lots of people selling for lower than last year or even a reply by a member with some pictures of a bunch of for sale signs on a corner (probably staged for the picture’s effect).
The economy is stronger than most of you give it credit and the housing market Is far from adjusting 20-30-40-or 50% as many of you had hoped. Correction – Yes. Collapse – far from it.
I’m looking for a good debate… Aside from the “in my neighborhood” examples and the “Lot and Lots” vague kind of answers which no one considers valid are there any of you who care to explain why you think the housing market is headed for a big bust.
Since the day I joined this forum I found myself at odds with numerous members regarding the state of the housing market. Most of which believe that we have only begun to see a crash of grand proportions, as many of you know I disagree. Over the last month or so I have been watching the stats
Here are some recent headlines:
Mortgage Bankers Association recent reports:
Recent firmness in mortgage applications and an increase in new-home sales suggest the housing slump may be nearly over…. indexes of applications for home purchases and refinancing have been rising steadily since summer and The four-week moving average for the MBA's purchase index has risen 12% since August while the four-week average for the group's refinancing index has soared more than 41% since July.
The Commerce Department:
said yesterday that new-home sales rose 3.4% in November to an annual rate of 1.05 million units Builders sold new homes at a faster rate last month than they did in October, shrinking the backlog of unsold homes on the market, the Commerce Department reported yesterday The number of new homes on the market last month dropped 1.4% to the lowest level since May The median sales price of a new home rose by 3.2%, reaching $251,700.
Yesterday’s Commerce department report said Last month, there were 545,000 new homes on the market, or the equivalent of a 6.3-month supply at current sales rates, according to the Commerce data, down from a recent high mark of a 7.2-month supply in July
December 28, 2006 it looks like the housing market and home sales appear to have stabilized, " said Thomas Lawler, a former economist for Fannie Mae
Sales of existing homes rose for the second consecutive month in November, a sign of rebounding demand:
The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes last month increased 0.6% from October to an annual rate of 6.28 million units. Spurred by lower interest rates and home prices, sales have now increased in back-to-back months for the first time in more than a year. Together with a recent upturn in the rate of new-home sales, the modest rise in existing-home sales indicates that home-buying activity may be stabilizing after a yearlong downturn
Some Miscellaneous good news:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 12500 for the first time Wednesday
consumer sentiment climbed to 109.0 in December -- the highest since April
Earlier on Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said the number of workers applying for first-time jobless benefits rose 1,000 to 317,000 last week, suggesting stable labor-market conditions. Wall Street economists had expected claims to rise to 320,000.
So I guess that I will hear plenty of statistical data to refute these news reports such the “all I can see in my neighborhood is all those for sale signs up and down the block” or there are lots and lots of people selling for lower than last year or even a reply by a member with some pictures of a bunch of for sale signs on a corner (probably staged for the picture’s effect).
The economy is stronger than most of you give it credit and the housing market Is far from adjusting 20-30-40-or 50% as many of you had hoped. Correction – Yes. Collapse – far from it.
I’m looking for a good debate… Aside from the “in my neighborhood” examples and the “Lot and Lots” vague kind of answers which no one considers valid are there any of you who care to explain why you think the housing market is headed for a big bust.
I have seen it in my area houses are closing and a funny thing is. We get a flyer in the door every month from a Realtor with houses for sale and those sold. The prices are going back up. One house that didn't sell for $399 is now $449. Whether it will sell or not who knows but there have been a lot of sales in the area this last month.
The prices are going back up. One house that didn't sell for $399 is now $449. Whether it will sell or not who knows but there have been a lot of sales in the area this last month.
Funny this should come up....just last night I was checking on the homes for sale in my area and noticed that prices had increased about 20K over what they have been recently. Also, most of the homes that had been for sale in my neighborhood have sold and already closed or pending. Very few new for sale signs out. I guess that's a good sign...but probably too early to tell.
Interesting article in the Orlando Sentinel today.. It seems homes sales statewide in Nov. '6 were down 30% from Nov. '05. The median sales price statewide was also down to $242,500 from $250,400 a year ago.
Hardest hit was Naples with a 45% plunge in sales and a 13% decline in median sales price - down to $415,200. Orlando sales were down 36% from the same time last year but the median price was up 4% to $263,600.
Certainly nationwide, the worst seems to be over, at least based on all the data that's come out this week. Florida is a little different right now because of the home insurance disaster, and you also have Detroit which is a disaster right now. I'm still in complete agreement with Shores that 2007 will at minimum be a stable housing market...
Location: Finally made it to Florida and lovin' every minute!
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Here in Northern New York, we tend to see such trends about 6 months - 2 years after the rest of the country. So we're slow up here!
Anyway, we're hoping that the housing market doesn't drop until after we sell. We're putting the house up in about 2 months in anticipation of closing late summer. Luckily, we've had some good economic news up here, too, so we're keeping our fingers crossed.
Depends on the location. In Texas I read that houses are going up 4% a year but that state never had much of a bubble and you can still get houses as cheap as $30k to $50k in Texas. Florida has a 9% drop forcasted for 2007 nonwithstanding a hurricane or further increases in insurance. Zillow keeps zestimating the houses less and less each passing month!
Certainly nationwide, the worst seems to be over, at least based on all the data that's come out this week. Florida is a little different right now because of the home insurance disaster, and you also have Detroit which is a disaster right now. I'm still in complete agreement with Shores that 2007 will at minimum be a stable housing market...
there’s a huge credit bubble out there right now’ with about $2 trillion worth of adjustable-rate mortgages that will have to be adjusted to current market rates in the next two years. That could trigger a wave of foreclosures as people have to give up houses they no longer can afford, Its not over yet,I think its just starting. But thats just me.
The prices are going back up. One house that didn't sell for $399 is now $449. Whether it will sell or not who knows but there have been a lot of sales in the area this last month.
Funny this should come up....just last night I was checking on the homes for sale in my area and noticed that prices had increased about 20K over what they have been recently. Also, most of the homes that had been for sale in my neighborhood have sold and already closed or pending. Very few new for sale signs out. I guess that's a good sign...but probably too early to tell.
The Orlando Sentinel. “The weakest metro area was Naples, with a 45 percent plunge in sales and the median falling 13 percent to $415,200. ‘It’s difficult to sell an existing home because of all the competition from new home builders,’ said Dean Palombi, a broker in east Orlando. Palombi said the area he specializes in, Stoneybrook, Eastwood, Waterford Lakes and Avalon, probably has at least 1,000 homes for sale within five miles. But most sellers, he said, either will not or cannot slash their prices.”
“‘Part of the reason is that a lot of people went in and financed at 90 percent and they can’t just give it away for 20 percent less,’ he said.”
The News Press. “The number of existing homes sold in November in Lee County was 637, down from 1,084 in December 2005. ‘They’re continuing to wait to see how low this market will go,’ said agent David Drabik. ‘They’ll go out and look and want to make an offer and they’ll go home and say, ‘I’ll think about it.’ They’re waiting to hit the absolute market bottom.’”
“Although prices have fallen, analyst Jack McCabe said, ‘it’s a much better time to rent. You can rent a property for 55 to 70 percent of the ownership costs would be, even factoring in your federal income tax deduction.’”
Zillow keeps zestimating the houses less and less each passing month!
I wouldn't believe anything on Zillow. I live in a new subdivision. They have the exact same house listed for 100K difference in price. For example one model built in our community is a 4/3 with a large loft 2800 square feet. Down the street from me there are two of these homes across the street from one another. Zillow has one 'zestimated' at $485,000 and the house across the street at $380,000. These are the exact same houses. I can find examples of this over and over. I read how they 'say' they arrive at these 'zestimates' but it certainly doesn't seem to work out in reality. I would be very upset were I trying to sell one of these homes that Zillow. I have written Zillow several times concerning the discrepencies in my area but never got a reply.
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