[lookingaround12345]

I was watching Fox today and they reported on record amounts of real estate brokers and agents leaving. Is Florida a bubble now? The smart money is saying it's become a crowded trade. What do you think?

Mods please change title to peak, how embarrassing I should pay more attention next time

This was meant for the politics wing and posted there. As such just delete it.

[Corrie22]

I wonder if it doesn't just balance out....

there was probably a record number of people that got into real estate when the boom started...

....so you'd have a record number leaving now

I seriously doubt there will ever be a real estate agent shortage in Florida

[wizrap]

I wonder if they’re leaving because they can’t find listings? I’ve gotten 3 solicitations from different realtors saying they have buyers for my house, all in the past week. And I’m in little ol’ Gainesville.

[Nerad]

Florida is one of the worst housing bubbles in the US

[beach43ofus]

Real estate experts project Florida's median prices to increase moderately in 2023 by just 2-4%.

Inventory is extremely tight, so yes, realtors can't get listings...transactions are down due to low inventory, not low buyer interest.

No bubble, but the peak's passed...until the next boom. New home builders are moving beyond supply chain issues, but I hear labor is still tight.

Our neighbor sold their home in 3 days for $1.1+M. ~4 yrs ago they paid ~1/2 of that. They're moving the coastal NC to be near family. They sold to cash buyers who are up-sizing from a nearby community. I see up-sizing a LOT here in SW FLA. Those <2,000 sq ft villa's seem fine, until guests visit.

[Nerad]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Real estate experts project Florida's median prices to increase moderately in 2023 by just 2-4%.

Inventory is extremely tight, so yes, realtors can't get listings...transactions are down due to low inventory, not low buyer interest.

No bubble, but the peak's passed...until the next boom. New home builders are moving beyond supply chain issues, but I hear labor is still tight.

Our neighbor sold their home in 3 days for $1.1+M. ~4 yrs ago they paid ~1/2 of that. They're moving the coastal NC to be near family. They sold to cash buyers who are up-sizing from a nearby community. I see up-sizing a LOT here in SW FLA. Those <2,000 sq ft villa's seem fine, until guests visit.

Make no mistake here. There is absolutely a housing bubble by its very definition. The low rate fueled excess demand.

Folks will hand wave, gas light, and try to even convince themselves that “it’s different this time”

People buying houses with no inspections, no contingencies, paying over asking. That is hallmark of a bubble.

The current housing price to earnings (income) is higher today than in 2006 right before the last housing bust. Affordability is gone, now add higher rate on top of it. The ONLY market variable to change at this point is housing prices.

Not my opinion it’s economics and these data follow with every housing boom/bust period.
It could be 3-4 years before the full price swing bottoms out even if we don’t have a collapse like 2008. If we go into true economic recession we’re all in trouble with housing prices.

[bale002]

By my definition, bubble also means fueled by debt.

Buyers since around 2010 have largely been flush with cash, and those who do borrow are actually qualified.

Supply and demand, then.

Are high prices curbing demand, in turn curbing price increases? Yes.

Will there by a sudden 20% drop in prices? A popping of the bubble, as it were?

I wouldn’t hold my breath.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by lookingaround12345

I was watching Fox today and they reported on record amounts of real estate brokers and agents leaving. Is Florida a bubble now? The smart money is saying it's become a crowded trade. What do you think?

Mods please change title to peak, how embarrassing I should pay more attention next time

This was meant for the politics wing and posted there. As such just delete it.

Of all news sources I wouldn't place lot of accuracy there. It isn't widely reported on otherwise so you might consider that, if possible.

[beachmouse]

Being a successful real estate agent over the long run is harder than people realize. I suspect that a lot of folks jumped into the business because when there are bidding wars for nearly every listing, it seemed like a quick path to wealth without having to do much work and now that they’re expected to actually come up with a marketing plan and understand how to take pictures to showcase a property and know the reliable handyman who can do some patch ups and touch ups before the house gets formally listed it’s kind of a shock how much effort can go into making a sale and hey, the nice office job for Florida Blue that’s got a guaranteed paycheck every month maybe isn’t so bad….

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by bale002

By my definition, bubble also means fueled by debt.

Buyers since around 2010 have largely been flush with cash, and those who do borrow are actually qualified.

Supply and demand, then.

Are high prices curbing demand, in turn curbing price increases? Yes.

Will there by a sudden 20% drop in prices? A popping of the bubble, as it were?

I wouldn’t hold my breath.

I agree with you, and so do the experts. I have not read any stories quoting experts predicting a large fall in prices here. The industry spokesperson said 2%-4% increase for FLA.