[jbravo]

And finally on land being scarce:

Bloomberg reports on Florida. “Brian Tuttle owns so much land that he paid $3.6 million to get rid of 125 acres ready for development in the middle of Florida’s Palm Beach County. ‘In 2005, I was a brain surgeon, and in 2006, I was a moron,’ said Tuttle, who walked away from his deposit on the land rather than lose even more money buying it and building homes on it. ‘The only good news is that I’m not alone.’”

“If he chose to buy the land, he would pay $310,000 an acre, almost 10 times more than the $33,000 an acre he paid for his first parcel there in 2000. Two years later, land values have fallen by as much as 40 percent. Tuttle said it was impossible for him to make enough on the deal, so he chose to give up the deposit rather than buy the land.”

“‘I’m just this humble guy and I didn’t see prices going this low,’ Tuttle said. ‘The big guys didn’t see it either.’”

“These days, the speculators are looking foolish. In Florida, where they helped inflate land values as much as 10-fold from 2000 to 2005, prices have dropped by as much as 50 percent.”

“‘The land market has dried up,’ said analyst Alex Barron. ‘Most builders are on the sidelines because they expect prices to go down another 30 percent.’”

“St. Joe Co., Florida’s biggest private landowner, said yesterday the average price per acre of land it sold in the fourth quarter dropped to $1,900 from $4,100 in the third quarter.”



Bloomberg reports on Florida. “Brian Tuttle owns so much land that he paid $3.6 million to get rid of 125 acres ready for development in the middle of Florida’s Palm Beach County. ‘In 2005, I was a brain surgeon, and in 2006, I was a moron,’ said Tuttle, who walked away from his deposit on the land rather than lose even more money buying it and building homes on it. ‘The only good news is that I’m not alone.’”

“If he chose to buy the land, he would pay $310,000 an acre, almost 10 times more than the $33,000 an acre he paid for his first parcel there in 2000. Two years later, land values have fallen by as much as 40 percent. Tuttle said it was impossible for him to make enough on the deal, so he chose to give up the deposit rather than buy the land.”

“‘I’m just this humble guy and I didn’t see prices going this low,’ Tuttle said. ‘The big guys didn’t see it either.’”

“These days, the speculators are looking foolish. In Florida, where they helped inflate land values as much as 10-fold from 2000 to 2005, prices have dropped by as much as 50 percent.”

“‘The land market has dried up,’ said analyst Alex Barron. ‘Most builders are on the sidelines because they expect prices to go down another 30 percent.’”

“St. Joe Co., Florida’s biggest private landowner, said yesterday the average price per acre of land it sold in the fourth quarter dropped to $1,900 from $4,100 in the third quarter.”

[Milabs]

Originally Posted by Chimpie

Northern Florida is not less susceptible to storms. Just ask people in Tallahassee and Pensacola. They've seen their fair share of storms in the past few years.

About me: 30 y/o male, middle management, making 30k/yr.

I live in Sarasota, and there is no way I could own a house right now. Not even a condo.

To me, prices of homes are just way overpriced. 180-250k for a condo, and you don't have any real property. 200-300k for a basic 3 bdrm/2 ba house. Then there is insurance (the minimum you have to have). Good insurance is even more. Then taxes, then just the general cost of owning a home. To me it's just ridiculous.

So for now I'm happy renting, but even renting, if it was for my g/f and I splitting the rent I don't think I would be able to stay down here.

Good for you!! You know what you can and cannot afford. Sadly too many ppl with the income of yours think they can afford a 250K house and what's even more sadder yet is that there are lenders out there who will get these ppl financing for a home in that price range. The rate of forclosures in Lee County alone is going to skyrocket...there are ppl that are so upside down on their homes and are so deep in debt they would have to win the lottery just to see daylight.

I lived in Lee County when the house prices were normal..we saw this boom coming and got out. Yeah we sold our house for 70K and were lucky to get it only to see it sold 2 yrs later for 250K....lol..I laughed about that till I cried..that piece of crap starter home we had built in 89 was not worth that amount of money and it would a cold day in hell before anyone in that city (Cape) can convince me otherwise.

I see that houses are going down..good..it's a bout time..now maybe some of our teachers and cival servants will be able to buy homes they can afford...now I just hope they can afford the taxes and ins that go along with it.

[tallrick]

I really hope that land values fall at least 50 percent, maybe more. If they fall to 2000 levels I can go ahead and move inland to the rural area I purchased in 1993. Please fall further!

[Rhodes112]

Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home

The experts had predicted around a 25% drop from the peak and we are getting close to the bottom. They say the bottom will be in 2008 then prices will inch up slowly after the bottom. Sure if we get a major hurricane this will cause further drops. Prices in 1999 were a little less than half of what they were at the peak in 2005. A such drop would mean you can get an adequate 3/2 starter home in PSL or in central and north FL for near $100k. Is that what you are predicting house prices will drop to?

Being a seasoned investor I urge you to use the following formula for accurate valuation. Select a property, perform a public records search and identify the last sales date (prior to 2003), add 4-6% appreciation for each year since the last sales date. If the area is attractive and growing (good schools, roads etc.) then you can add a 10% premiun to the final number. Any appreciation above that is unsustainable and destined to reverse. Trust me.

[Rhodes112]

Originally Posted by LeavingFlorida05

Rose colored glasses? Hah. Look at my forum name. I can't wait to leave, but I have legitimate reasons. You're just making things up. You have no evidence to back your claims. You're like the homeless guy walking down the street wearing a sign saying "The End Is Near".

My comment regarding the scarcity of land is nonsensical? Really? I would educate you on the basics of economics, but I think I would be wasting my breath. Keep screaming about how the world is ending. You might get someone to believe you.

In the meantime, try to provide some evidence of your claims. So far, you have none.

““St. Joe Co., Florida’s biggest private landowner, said yesterday the average price per acre of land it sold in the fourth quarter dropped to $1,900 from $4,100 in the third quarter.”

“Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant in Deerfield Beach, Florida, said land prices in his region will keep falling. He said investors are waiting for prices to hit bottom, probably in the second half of this year. ‘It’s going to be pretty ugly,’ McCabe said. ‘Lots of people will lose money and a lot of paper wealth will be going away.’”

“Margie Bushnell is one land speculator who said she’s willing to wait to get the price she desires. The 77-year-old widow from Flagler County, Florida, owns a half-acre parcel on Highway A1A in the coastal town of Hammock. The carrying costs are killing her, she said. She’s paying property taxes of $4,500, triple what she paid when she made the purchase three years ago.”

“‘It’s an extremely lot of money,’ Bushnell said. ‘I’m retired and it’s hard for me to come up with that.’”

“Bushnell is offering the land on a free on- line advertising site. A year ago, her price was $699,000. Now she’s asking $650,000. She said in a half-whisper that the land, zoned mixed commercial and residential, could be had for $595,000. She’s ready to wait another year for a buyer at that price.”

“How much did Bushnell pay for the half-acre in 2004? $80,000.”

The News Press. “A meltdown in the Southwest Florida housing market has forced a hiring freeze of building inspectors and permitting staff in Lee County and Cape Coral.”

“‘We’re hearing that things could be slow possibly for another year, so I don’t think we’ll be filling (openings) any time soon,’ said Mary Gibbs, director of Lee County’s Department of Community Development.”

“‘When we had the boom, we had tons of overtime. So we cut out the overtime. We had some temporary help. We cut out the temporary help,’ Gibbs said.”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Bob Bach Sr., vice president of research nationally for Grubb & Ellis Co., and another expert, though speaking to a crowd of commercial real estate brokers, spent a lot of time talking about the state of residential real estate, given the nationwide slowdown in existing-home sales and the slump in new-home construction.”

“Mark Vitner, chief economist for Wachovia Corp., the nation’s fourth-largest bank, said a recent uptick in home sales doesn’t mean the residential market’s troubles are over. ‘I don’t think so,’ Vitner said. ‘There’s evidence the market still hasn’t hit bottom.’”

[jbravo]

Rhodes112
We read the same forums.

[pslOldTimer]

Originally Posted by Rhodes112

Being a seasoned investor I urge you to use the following formula for accurate valuation. Select a property, perform a public records search and identify the last sales date (prior to 2003), add 4-6% appreciation for each year since the last sales date. If the area is attractive and growing (good schools, roads etc.) then you can add a 10% premiun to the final number. Any appreciation above that is unsustainable and destined to reverse. Trust me.

I agree that's what it probably should be. But, you might have a long wait for the reversal. I paid $7,200 per acre for 5 acres in Okeechobee in October, 2002, a total of $36,000, and I was concerned I paid too much. Your formula, at the highest rates, would make the property worth about $50,000, today. Unfortunately, that's the minimum price you will pay, per acre. Land is still selling reasonably well in Okeechobee at $50K per acre and higher in 5 to 15 acre parcels; a little higher for parcels around 2.5 acres. The assessment on my property is currently $99,000, and we all know how reluctant they are to come down.

One thing your formula ignores is demand. People are starting to move up from South Florida to areas like Okeechobee. They don't care what it cost in 2002; all they know is that even at $50K per acre or more, it's a lot cheaper than down in Palm Beach County.

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by Milabs

I lived in Lee County when the house prices were normal..we saw this boom coming and got out. Yeah we sold our house for 70K and were lucky to get it only to see it sold 2 yrs later for 250K....lol..I laughed about that till I cried..that piece of crap starter home we had built in 89 was not worth that amount of money and it would a cold day in hell before anyone in that city (Cape) can convince me otherwise.

I see that houses are going down..good..it's a bout time..now maybe some of our teachers and cival servants will be able to buy homes they can afford...now I just hope they can afford the taxes and ins that go along with it.

Actually we have a similar story but not this dramatic. Dad sold his first house for $105k(he isnt sure but was about that) in 1995. That thing was worth over $300k at the peak in 2005. I think you gave away that house for $70k if it got flipped for $250k just 2 years later. I occasionally see sellers asking too low and they either sell in days or everyone assumes theres problems when there is little or no problem. You are right $250k is insane for your house. The investor who paid that is gonna lose his shirt as that house halves in price.

[aaammmyyy]

relastate got realy steep for a while, but it looks like it's reached it's peak, and is now plumitting rapidly.

[justin3079]

If any body thinks Florida is special there wrong. I was born here and this state has went to crap. The schools suck, the housing is high ,the economy sucks, there is no jobs, the taxes are high, theres no seasons, and we keep moving imigrants right in to florida. There is plenty of land in florida (look around) we are in a depression and it just started, get ready for it to get worst. My house is worth less than its original appraisal by 15000 dollars.