[INeedAChange]

Please vote for when you think this will occur

[chisoxfan]

I didn't cast a vote because there are a few variables that are likely to affect the real estate market in the months to come, such as: Will we have a mild hurricane season or an active one? Will homeowners insurance rates keep rising? Will whatever property tax legislation that winds up passing (or not) make it easier for first-time home buyers, local residents who want to stay in the area but downsize, etc.?

My inclination is to say 1-2 years, but it wouldn't be a surprise if it's two years or more in Broward, especially in the condo market. Inventories are astoundingly large and it will take a while to work through that in any case.

[SKB]

For any up swing, I think we are looking at 10+ years.

[FlaRan]

10 years is depressing! I live in Broward and I am praying for two years. I agree that it is very regional. In South Florida there are jobs available, this leads to a need for housing. If the state legislature can ease our tax burden and not make it prohibitive for someone to buy a first home or become a "move-up" buyer, then I would estimate two years max for a turnaround in those areas with larger employment centers (Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville). If you own in an area more geared toward second homes and snowbirds, it will be longer.

[LKJ1988]

Maybe if home prices drop down 35% to 50% we would see a upswing.

[SKB]

I think after the crash is over prices will remain flat for many many years.

[MrTudo]

Depends on how many if any hurricanes make landfall .

Frankly, if even a cat 1 hurricane hits anywhere in Fla this year, we're all screwed.

What blows me away is the shoddiness of construction and the ignorance behind such construction. We were hit in the eye of Huricane Charley and "for the most part" were ok. Lost part of the roof, elec was out, fence gone, some trees snapped including parts of our giant heritage oaks in the front but were ok. See what happened in mississippi? And that was only 140mph winds. When we were looking in the Pensacola area, specifically Navarre, we were stunned by the absolute stupidity of builders like Adams homes who built these cheap frame houses ( and the stupidity of people who paid a lot of money for them ). Imagine if Katrina or another one hits there again. Bam!

At least we have a concrete block and steel house and we spent extra to reinforce the roof .

[JimKing]

The reason it is hard to start the clock is that the market has not bottomed yet. We are still a year or so away from really getting started.

We have tons of denial, dead cat bounces that will cause folks to call the markets recovery, a brief emotional uptick if they pass that tax relief fiasco, and the majority of bad loans will not reset for 12-24 months.

I think we will see very small ups and downs over the next few years. But once all these long term negative factors converge, the long term fate of most Florida real estate will be down, down, down.

My call is for 3-4-5 bedroom houses in the worst markets to be 50-70% below their peaks, when adjusted for inflation, in 10 years. Condos in the worst markets will be 60-80% below their peaks.

[Hondax]

Originally Posted by SKB

I think after the crash is over prices will remain flat for many many years.

SKB,

When(not if) more people start coming back to Florida than are leaving, inventories will drop and prices will climb and we will be right back where we left off in 2005,....unless Florida pulls back the reins on speculative building and stiffer rules are mandated by lending institutions. It seems the property tax issue is on track to a reasonable fix which is another important key to helping the floodgate of retirees in the future.

Florida still is the undisputed "final destination" champ of retirement states.....and retirement glory awaits 9,000 of us every single day. You can delay the Juggernaut for a couple years but any longer seems inconcevable....one man's opinion.

[HockeyMom72]

Originally Posted by INeedAChange

Please vote for when you think this will occur

It isn't just Florida. It is NATION wide.