Is This the year? (Cape Coral, Pine Island: rental car, short sales, real estate)

[nhkev]

I figured (wrongly) in last year that the 16,000 new homeowners to the area would give a big boost to the economy. I based this off a fact that a new homeowner usually spends 3x's that of an existing homeowner. This is because they have to buy furniture, lawn mowers, tv's , appliances etc.

On the surface this did not appear to happen last year the numbers were pretty much slightly down or flat the last 3 years.

Since the begining of last season I estimate there have been another 14,000 or so home sold. One thing that maybe different this year is the stock market is a lot higher than it was a year ago. consumer confidence seems to be higher, and although unemployment is high and house prices are still low the consensus seems to be both are stabilized and the double dip camp is a lot smaller.

Could this be the season where people start to open their wallets? I know equalrights for all gave some good anecdotes of businesses in the area but sept and couple weeks before and after are the slowest months of the year historically for airport traffic, tourism sales, and home sales. He has also only been there a year so since April has watched the area get slower and slower which is normal for the area. November is the first month when things start to pick up. As far as the locals that have been there for a couple of years are you noticing a pickup or not.

The only anecdote that I have read has been that there has been a shortage of rental cars.

[kroeran]

while the UK is still mired in debt and the crisis, Canada is doing well, the wave of retirees is building, and the dollar is at par - which is surreal after spending a few decades always having to pay the exchange difference.

Regardless of what is going on elsewhere, SWF Florida and eastern Canada are made for each other, (Montrealers go to east coast Florida, westerners to Arizona) and I hear a lot of the recent sales at Paseo are to Canadians.

The limitation is that there is no promotion in Canada. My belief is that local builders and agents would get 10* the return on their advertising dollar if they were to spend this money in the Toronto and Ottawa markets this season. The other limitation is the lack of a direct flight from Ottawa to SWF airport.

[hiknapster]

This was a brutal recession. In the past 100 years, nothing has been this bad except The Great Depression.

The ship slowly turned in June 2009. We have had a very slow recovery. Like molasses. And it always takes time for a recovery to be felt. A lot of time. And it will take longer than usual, this time around.

But I honestly feel that we will start to feel like we are headed for, or in better times, next summer, barring any unforeseen catastrophe, of course. Whether swFlorida sees that first or last, I have not decided on. I think probably last. But there is a natural motion to life and what goes down eventually comes up, and down again, unless an asteroid hits us.

Hey, you never know.

[rikoshaprl]

The Fed devaluing the dollar should be good for home buying. People get to pay off their mortgages with devalued dollars. And rates are so low.

[justNancy]

I guess it depends on your situation. If you own gold, then turning the dollar into toilet paper is great. It's also good for the stock market.

Devaluation only works if people can earn enough money to spend. With unemployment so high and wages frozen, I doubt it will have much of an effect. After all, they've been lowering the rates since 2008 and the economy has just gotten worse.

IMHO much of our purchasing power is from the strength of the dollar, not the weakness, yet the government plays games with our livelihoods. Retirees who wanted FDIC coverage are being devastated by these low rates as their long term CDs that were earning 5% or better are maturing and cutting their incomes by so much, they're being forced to switch to uninsured annuities, bonds, mutual funds, precious metals or other investments.

By shipping our jobs overseas, the power of the American worker has been devalued, not just the dollar. By caring more about building manufacturing plants in Mexico and China instead of in the heartland, families have been devalued, "made in America" pride has been stripped away. You can't even buy an American flag any more that's made in the USA.

Lower rates have done NOTHING to stimulate the economy.

[nhkev]

I'm not sure if I agree with you or not Nancy but what a great,well thought out and well put opinion. Not to get too much off topic but in some cases I would agree with all your points with the exception that Riko puts out. When there is little debt a strong dollar/ low inflation is the rule, but in this situation when everyone is way over leveraged while everything else gets inflated debt gets deflated. A couple things that the low rates have helped are this....

The next wave of foreclosures due to arm resets didn't really happen because when their rates went adjustable they didn't skyrocket out of control. It helped a lot of people refinance at the lower rates given them true monthly savings, I had a good interest rate on my last house at 5.875 when I moved to Mass I got 4.5% over the life of the loan a huge difference.

The next shoe to drop (commercial real estate) was suppose to cripple the economy worse than housing. This really didn't seem to happen because a lot of the deals were able to be refinanced.

In time the inflation is like a tide that rises all boats (including housing) should help with homeowners that are underwater.

And because some other large countries manipulate their currencies we almost have to manipulate ours lower to keep a little more competitive with them. this of course only works if no one else follows. kind of like a gas station that lowers it's price by 5 cents to get more volume and then the competitor across the street reduces theirs by 6 cents and they have a pricing war.

It also has raised the stock market which has made a lot of investors retirees "feel" richer. And with the wealth effect should raise consumer confidence. This is a much fear based recession and the avg person doesn't really understand currency/monetary policy ( I certainly don't) what they know is when they look at their quarterly statements when they go up their happy.

[nhkev]

now back on topic..

here is some good signs that this could be a little better this year.

Cape Coral retailers have high hopes | news-press.com | The News-Press


We’re running 2 percent up from a year ago and are much higher for the month of November,” he said. “(Corporate) has shipped 10 percent more merchandise already this year compared to last.”


The Target on Pine Island Road is expecting a big day in the black as well as the store already hired 50 new employees to take care of the seasonal shopping rush.


“We’re seeing the increase (in sales) already,” said Target executive director Cheryl Schreiber. “We’ve had increases all year and we expect to stay on track.”

[chadman154]

I have been watching florida real estate for over 2 years from my snowy home in wi. I personally think the year to buy is summer - fall of 2011. Real estate is still scheduled to fall, the government looking to intervein doesnt help one bit. I creates a bandaid and postpones the problem.

The homes that i found 2 years ago were on short sales at 129,900 and this year were still selling short at 89,900 with no buyers in sight. I wonder if the banks in FL are even foreclosing on all the homes that are in default.

[nhkev]

maybe another sign of an uptick this year.




http://http://www.news-press.com/article/20101122/BUSINESS/101122039/1075/Southwest-Florida-International-Airport-sees-increase-in-travelers (broken link)

[stahltkd]

Originally Posted by nhkev

maybe another sign of an uptick this year.




http://http://www.news-press.com/article/20101122/BUSINESS/101122039/1075/Southwest-Florida-International-Airport-sees-increase-in-travelers

Also add in that there is now a non-stop from Rochester to RSW (when everyone else is eliminating routes)