when will housing peak return to Florida? (Miami, Cape Coral: buying a home, unemployment)

[twobums]

There was a time that Moody's was oh so optimistic when it came to housing.... not any more. Check out the map.


Home prices won't regain peak this decade: Moody's - MarketWatch


That is a big OUCH-Y for Florida.

[faithfulFrank]

Although interesting, I think it is too general.
There are differences in regions, heck, even neighborhoods and counties.
Too many other factors come into play that can impact any one area.

I do agree that in many areas it will take a long time. If those "peak" prices were abnormal and unfounded, why should those prices return, unless by years of normal inflation?

Frank

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by faithfulFrank

Although interesting, I think it is too general.
There are differences in regions, heck, even neighborhoods and counties.
Too many other factors come into play that can impact any one area.

I do agree that in many areas it will take a long time. If those "peak" prices were abnormal and unfounded, why should those prices return, unless by years of normal inflation?

Frank

But this is the Fort Myers/Cape Coral forum. You know the area. The one that Time, The New York Times, The New Yorker and The Economist point to when they want to illustrate the housing bust and boom.

If anything, it could be worse for this area than what is shown on that map.

I understand that you have a home in The Villages, which is very far away from Fort Myers/Cape Coral. And I understand that area is doing very well and that the map is probably not reflecting The Villages success story. But that has nothing to do with the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area and I don't want people that are looking for relocation information to get confused. Their economic future is at stake.

Of course, that is probably what you are saying!

[nhkev]

moody's has a great track record don't they? Hopefully you didn't take advice from any of their other analyst's when they rated companies like AIG triple A ratings. And you tell me not to watch CNBC????? I think what they did is just take current values and figure if there was normal appreciation of say 4% how long it would take to get back to peak years. but there are so many variables that can happen. But with all that 15 yrs to get back to Peak levels isn't unreasonable in a market that should have never had the peak values to begin with.

[twobums]

all the big boys got it wrong, nhkev ~ everyone of them and for a long long time. Sadly, unsophisticated investors believed them and kept running up the market.

Take in all the info you can, keep the best and forget the rest. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

BTW none of this housing info should scare someone who is buying a home to raise a family. That is what RE should be about ... not making a quick buck in just a few years.

[nhkev]

I find analysts have become as good at predicting where the market is going as well as a meteorologist is at predicting the weather in new england. I like to back test analysts to see what they were saying 6 months ago and did they predict a 58% increase in the S&P or were they shorting the market. Cnbc used to disclose perfomance ytd and last 5 yrs of the fund managers that spoke on air.... they stopped doing that for some reason.

[twobums]

Hahhaha! You are so smart to have noticed CNBC dropping the ball... you are spot on. Good for you!

[faithfulFrank]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

But this is the Fort Myers/Cape Coral forum. You know the area. The one that Time, The New York Times, The New Yorker and The Economist point to when they want to illustrate the housing bust and boom.

If anything, it could be worse for this area than what is shown on that map.

I understand that you have a home in The Villages, which is very far away from Fort Myers/Cape Coral. And I understand that area is doing very well and that the map is probably not reflecting The Villages success story. But that has nothing to do with the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area and I don't want people that are looking for relocation information to get confused. Their economic future is at stake.

Of course, that is probably what you are saying!

That is what I'm saying....that generalizations are generally wrong because they are too general. I do understand that Ft Myers is ground zero for this whole thing.

Just to set the record straight......my Florida home is about 13 miles south of The Villages....I'm not in The Villages, but yes, the whole area is doing better I think then the Ft Myers area. My point is that when you just look at states, that is too general. Just as NYC is FAR different then western NY, so is Ft. Myers different then the panhandle or Miami, etc,etc.

A home is first to live in, never spend more then what you make, save, save, save. Let the law of compounding interest work for you instead of against you. People think they no longer have to live within their means....very sad.

That being said, I've owned income property for years, but still adhered to sound conservative principles, and that served me well.

Frank

[nhkev]

in ten years who knows where unemployment, interest rates, gov't programs, population growth or decline, median income , average rents, gasoline and other commodity prices, Crime, effects of climate change, new constuction rates, in addition to catastrophic events. Someone would have to know the answer to all these things, and more to predict home prices in ten years.

[hiknapster]

Yes. You just never know.

The economy may be flat in swFlorida, like it has been for decades. Or these low prices may create a mini-bubble.