Could homeless migration eventually doom the sunbelt? (apartments, renters)
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I've spent a lot time in LA and NYC this year and the difference is pretty drastic as far as homelessness is concerned. Yes maybe maybe in the 70's and 80's Los Angeles really caught up and even outshined New York City, drawing millions all over America. But to be honest those days are long gone, I know not a breaking story but it's absolutely everywhere in LA right now. I'm not saying NYC knows how to handle it better but clearly having a winter season would help solve a ton of problems without blinking.
If we're unable to come up with a solid answer here I see all this moving south. And really what I saw in LA was homeless tent cities in the suburbs on neighborhood streets, would you want to let your son or daughter "play outside" with that nonsense going on? This is one issue where I think the North might end up looking a little more enticing than it has been in the past.
I think some have even become desensitized to it, whereas an outsider like me might be stunned people are just starting to get used to it. That could be my only explanation to why this isn't in National emergency mode.
Here in Seattle it got worse in the past five years or so, and then jumped again during Covid. The first might have been largely about housing prices, and the second due to lost jobs, social distancing in shelters, etc. Public policy priorities shifted to homelessness a couple years ago, then ran into the temporary Covid thing. I suspect real progress would have been made without Covid.
As Covid diminishes, it'll either get worse as renters are forced to pay back rent, or better as the recent measures are the bigger effect. The volume of evictions will be a big driver. Landlords will hopefully let most tenants pay over time.
Local measures have been pretty widespread, and I'm guessing we'll see real improvement in the next year or two. Big ones I'm aware of:
1. The State of Washington recently required that any location zoned for a hotel also allow a shelter and transitory housing. Suddently they're not shut out of most places.
2. Hundreds of millions have recently gone to buying new micro apartments and old hotels to turn them into homeless housing. I think we're in the four figures of units. Many are in areas affected by #1.
3. Behavioral Health has a ton of new funding. Most notably, the UW just broke ground on a new provider-training and treatment hospital.
4. Also related to #1, suburbs and satellite cities have been making progress on new shelters and transitory housing, so it's not just the inner city pulling its weight. Part of that is county and state leadership.
5. The number of small-house units has also been growing.
Much of the issue as shown by NY vs. LA is that's (a) roofs and (b) dispersal both matter. NY's shelters are generally well outside the core, and most homeless sleep inside. LA's homeless are concentrated and very often outside. Seattle's approach (and probably the others') is that services and supervision also matter...it's better to be in a tent city with a staff than to be next to the freeway without one.
Location: San Diego CA>Tijuana, BC>San Antonio, TX
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San Diego struggles with homelessness as well, the plus side here is that unlike LA, our city doesn't allow tents on sidewalks to stay up day and night which inconveniences the homeless who then choose to hide under bridges and in the canyons.
Location: San Diego CA>Tijuana, BC>San Antonio, TX
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Yes, it's just that the infographic is divided up by county. SF City is essentially the entire County.
With the exception of Phoenix, these are some of the most expensive cities in the US.
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
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Miami is less tolerant and the street presence outside of a few pockets is far less than what I experienced when I lived on the West Coast and backed by data below:
Florida has experienced the largest decrease in homeless of any state since 2007 with the number of homeless on the streets of Miami decreasing from 8000 earlier this century to under 900 as of end of 2020 (a 13% decline from previous year).
Doom? The South is already full of poor people. The Sun Belt consists mainly of States with the highest levels of poverty. The 15 states (+DC) with the highest poverty are all either below the Mason-Dixon line (MS, LA, KY, AR, WV, AL, OK, TN, SC, TX, NC, DC, GA) or in the Southwest (AZ, NM).
In other words, greater San Francisco was #3 at 26,000.
Yep. And greater Los Angeles is #2 at about 70,000.
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