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While the narrative espoused in much of the media talks of Florida population growth leading the nation, lazily the topic of outbound residents is not discussed and nearly equals inbound with the overall growth rate currently between 1% and 3%, depending upon the source referenced and calendar year involved. The term "halfbackers" has been around for a while and references those who move from the Northeast US to FL primarily and upon experiencing FL's day to day realities move halfway back somewhere in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic typically. Th economic component of wage-to-housing inequity in the past couple years has redefined destinations somewhat further as MSAs like Atlanta, Charlotte, Charleston and Nashville are having similar issues to what is seen in FL's big cities now. Is this the foreseeable beginning of sizable population growth for second and third tier cities in the Southeast as the middle 60% are being squeezed out or avoid FL altogether, and if so some predictions?
Last edited by kyle19125; 12-28-2022 at 10:50 PM..
I voted for South Carolina as it’s an underrated state. Greenville and Charleston are both great in their own ways, but upstate SC is very affordable and really a beautiful place. Check out Table Rock State Park and see if you don’t agree.
Personally, I’d be looking more at places like California, Washington, and New England (CT, MA). They used to be expensive, but Florida has caught up to some degree so they’re more appealing now.
Last time I checked, pretty much all of the states except Georgia had net migration in their favor wrt Florida, and Georgia was still pretty close, and Alabama being at basically parity. Even Mississippi is gaining from Florida. Numbers more lean towards the South Carolina and Tennessee as the big net gainers.
2019 numbers I had looked at (periods only used for spacing, state moved to is the row, from is the column):
I hesitated to vote for Tennessee because of Memphis. Replace Memphis with Cookeville-Crossville and you've got it. And Knoxville definitely should be in there. Essentially Nashville-Knoxville-Cookeville/Crossville-Tri Cities-Chattanooga, probably in that order. Memphis is almost always on the losing end of in/out-migration.
Within Georgia outside the Atlanta metro, I think the more popular destinations are on the coast (including greater Savannah) and the northern mountains. The latter region offers a climate and environment that doesn't exist in Florida.
The middle Georgia "Fall Line" cities of Columbus, Macon and Augusta in general have slower growth, and more of the transplants come from surrounding rural areas or from distant places via the military (there are large bases close to each principal city). While their quality of life amenities and economic opportunities are certainly developing, I don't think Florida transplants (especially those originally from the North) would prioritize such places over some of the higher profile locations in Georgia and elsewhere in the Southeast.
I voted for South Carolina as it’s an underrated state. Greenville and Charleston are both great in their own ways, but upstate SC is very affordable and really a beautiful place. Check out Table Rock State Park and see if you don’t agree.
Personally, I’d be looking more at places like California, Washington, and New England (CT, MA). They used to be expensive, but Florida has caught up to some degree so they’re more appealing now.
Personally I agree with places like New England and would argue low-cost Midwest options are going be more appealing than higher-cost West Coast cities. I feel like some are discovering larger cities like Cincinnati, Columbus and Kansas City offer a lot minus the big price tag.
Last time I checked, pretty much all of the states except Georgia had net migration in their favor wrt Florida, and Georgia was still pretty close, and Alabama being at basically parity. Even Mississippi is gaining from Florida. Numbers more lean towards the South Carolina and Tennessee as the big net gainers.
2019 numbers I had looked at (periods only used for spacing, state moved to is the row, from is the column):
I had actually thought about including Mississippi given the renewed interest in cities like Gulfport, Hattiesburg and Laurel but felt skipping over Louisiana wasn't fair despite its issues.
Georgia is going to be a blue state in a decade and that’s going to collapse its appeal to retirement Boomers. Its Gold Coast is also the least desirable imo (though St Simons and Tybee present some options).
Alabama’s coast is underrated, but way too small to really become an alternative to Florida. That area will boom (as is already happening), but Alabama won’t really be seen as a retirement state.
I hesitated to vote for Tennessee because of Memphis. Replace Memphis with Cookeville-Crossville and you've got it. And Knoxville definitely should be in there. Essentially Nashville-Knoxville-Cookeville/Crossville-Tri Cities-Chattanooga, probably in that order. Memphis is almost always on the losing end of in/out-migration.
I agree, late night brain fart regarding Knoxville's omission. Cookeville is more an extension of Nashville however and no longer a bargain. Crossville is more part of the Knoxville metro and not large enough to be a standalone here. In terms of Memphis, I also agree it should have been left off.
Georgia is going to be a blue state in a decade and that’s going to collapse its appeal to retirement Boomers. Its Gold Coast is also the least desirable imo (though St Simons and Tybee present some options).
Alabama’s coast is underrated, but way too small to really become an alternative to Florida. That area will boom (as is already happening), but Alabama won’t really be seen as a retirement state.
I think NC, SC, TN is the right answer.
I heartily disagree. The GA Gold Coast's attention to preservation versus destruction (as seen in FL) will make it an attractive option in my opinion. Cities like Brunswick, St Mary's and Kingsland are close enough to the beautiful beaches around St Simon's and the Golden Isles while maintaining close proximity to booming Jacksonville and its top-tier medical offerings (Mayo Clinic, UF-Shands and Baptist Health). The weather is also generally FL-like....sunny/mild to hot with a month or two of chilly exception.
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