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Maryland suffers from a stigma vis-a-vis Virginia. I know because I personally chose Virginia over Maryland for that reason: higher crime, higher taxes, worse drivers, etc. I can’t really think of a single “major draw” that Maryland has over Virginia other than being cheaper for the lower classes.
Even a county like Moco is in serious decline now. When I moved to DC, Fairfax and Moco were the two crown jewels of suburban living. In the past 15 years, Moco has been stagnant while Nova has zoomed ahead. The end result is that this past year for the first time Prince William County (the “poor” county of Nova) now has a higher median household income than Montgomery County (the “rich” county of Maryland). Loudoun had zoomed ahead as the abode of wealthy metropolitans (with its wine country and hunting estates) and tech jobs have concentrated in the Dulles Tech Corridor while the Rockville equivalent has been extremely underwhelming.
Somebody who bought in Fairfax County in the 00s, when Moco/Fairfax housing prices were similar, now has $120k more in equity on the median home than someone who bought in Moco ($650k median in FFX vs. $530k in Moco).
As someone who was priced out of Alexandria, then Fairfax, and now Prince William is getting pricey, I don’t really see this as an inherently good thing. But I still won’t move to Maryland because of its inherent disadvantages. The only well managed counties in Maryland today are Frederick (too far from DC, though I adore the City of Frederick), Howard, and Harford. Even Anne Arundel seems to be losing its cachet other than the towering heights of places like Crownsville and Severna Park.
Meanwhile people are still getting priced out of MoCo, and increasingly, Frederick Co (not quite there yet but it is not exactly cheap now), so the doom and gloom of MoCo is exaggerated. BTW depends on year MoCo MHI is still higher than PWC.
At the end, Woodbridge/Dale City area feels a lot like Germantown/Gaithersburg anyway (except that there are probably way more jobs in Gaithersburg than eastern PWC, which basically commute north).
Plus of course people are priced out of PW - that's why people have to sit on that I-95 parking lot daily from Stafford Co/Spotsylvania Co/Fredericksburg - which grow at a much quicker pace than PW.
As for AA - what hurts it IMHO is the lack of areas being developed - it seems like other than a few pockets, there hasn't been large development since 2010 or so. Plus North County (Glen Burnie etc.) had been declining for years anyway.
For Harford - it is low COL (relatively) but there is simply nothing out that way other than APG. And it has been discuss, ad nauseam, about how Baltimore MSA overall is just stagnant, especially in areas that is not DC spillover friendly (looking at you, Howard County).
The hidden county is Carroll - but they just want to stay rural and not build anything. The southern part of that county is truly prime for sprawl, especially for people that are priced out of Howard County.
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Final note - looking at DMV (and also Baltimore) in general also show how the strong county governments of VA and MD affect developments. In states like Texas, for example, county can sometimes feel like just a line with sprawl mainly just following the interstates or major highway, hoping from one town to the next. Not so in MD, with MoCo and that stupid (imho) agricultural preserve really changing where sprawls are for miles.
Meanwhile people are still getting priced out of MoCo, and increasingly, Frederick Co (not quite there yet but it is not exactly cheap now), so the doom and gloom of MoCo is exaggerated. BTW depends on year MoCo MHI is still higher than PWC.
At the end, Woodbridge/Dale City area feels a lot like Germantown/Gaithersburg anyway (except that there are probably way more jobs in Gaithersburg than eastern PWC, which basically commute north).
Plus of course people are priced out of PW - that's why people have to sit on that I-95 parking lot daily from Stafford Co/Spotsylvania Co/Fredericksburg - which grow at a much quicker pace than PW.
As for AA - what hurts it IMHO is the lack of areas being developed - it seems like other than a few pockets, there hasn't been large development since 2010 or so. Plus North County (Glen Burnie etc.) had been declining for years anyway.
For Harford - it is low COL (relatively) but there is simply nothing out that way other than APG. And it has been discuss, ad nauseam, about how Baltimore MSA overall is just stagnant, especially in areas that is not DC spillover friendly (looking at you, Howard County).
The hidden county is Carroll - but they just want to stay rural and not build anything. The southern part of that county is truly prime for sprawl, especially for people that are priced out of Howard County.
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Final note - looking at DMV (and also Baltimore) in general also show how the strong county governments of VA and MD affect developments. In states like Texas, for example, county can sometimes feel like just a line with sprawl mainly just following the interstates or major highway, hoping from one town to the next. Not so in MD, with MoCo and that stupid (imho) agricultural preserve really changing where sprawls are for miles.
According to Redfin data, Montgomery County median home price was $503,000 in April 2020 (the first reading into COVID). It's now $532,000. That's a +5.7% increase in 3 years, which is an extremely low ROI compared to what the nation saw.
In real terms, median prices have gotten cheaper in Moco, though of course desirable homes in the best areas (Bethesda, Potomac, Darnestown) have done quite well. But the county overall has been a clear underperformer.
Prince William County was at $405,000 in April 2020. It's now $520,000. That's a +28.4% increase in 3 years. At this rate, PWC will have more expensive housing than Moco by this year as well (in addition to MHI).
As someone who's only now able to afford a $500k home, I'll just say I'm not exactly happy about it. Had I been born 3 years earlier, I'd have $115k in profit right now instead of having nothing and waiting for a correction that may/may not ever arrive. I'll give DC 5 more years to 'correct' before I pull the trigger and just move to suburban Chicago or Philadelphia.
The dark red Texas counties that have lost significant population relative to their past population may have an aggregate population of 50,000 residents, and probably less than that. It's like much of the rest of the Great Plains. There's a huge outmigration pattern and its going to continue until there's no one living in these areas.
Understood, though it still seems like "there are massive portions of Texas that have basically been written off and are losing population" is a conveniently overlooked/ignored talking point.
Glad that there's posts for something other than DC real estate here, but I don't see much significance here.
Texas, like just about every state is getting more urban/suburban while the rural population is shrinking.
It would be headlines if Texas population was shrinking, but tge rural counties have been shrinking for decades. No news there.
Yep. Basically the only rural counties in TX that gain people are the area near Permian Basin due to the oilfields anyway.
And even metro areas depends. For example, Tyler TX (Smith Co) is growing quite nicely, but nearby Longview (Gregg Co)? Not as much. The big metro areas (Houston, DFW, SA, Austin) are of course gaining, but even El Paso isn't growing too much. Then there are places like Beaumont (Jefferson Co) that is flat.
Last note? I believe somebody upthread already mention it, but Harris Co (Houston) and Dallas Co both have net negative domestic migration anyway, not different than basically all other large metro areas all around the country.
Go to the job growth thread. Metro Baltimore is the only top 50 MSA that's had a net loss of jobs the last 12 months. Demand issue, not supply.
Demand issue in Howard County? When they are selling brand new $900k SFH there? (and they're sold out in a few months)
Compare to VA in general, MD is just not really handing out building permits left and right...ok except maybe Frederick County, which sees that big population boost for a reason .
And compare to sunbelt, a LOT of the first ring suburban county are also build out in the NE anyway - which is why you don't see huge population boost in, let say, Westchester County NY either. Meanwhile, places like Kaufman County TX? There are acres and acres of farmlands that are being paved over. I wish they actually do that in MD or NOVA which always push housing price down.
Compare to VA in general, MD is just not really handing out building permits left and right...ok except maybe Frederick County, which sees that big population boost for a reason .
That's because there are no jobs there. Metro Baltimore jobs are down .5% over the last 12 months, every other top 50 is positive.
The Baltimore area is exceptionally cheap, even Howard County has the same median house price as suburban Collin County, TX, Harford, Owings Mills, and other suburban parts of metro Balt are much lower. One reason it's so cheap is the lack of jobs.
That's because there are no jobs there. Metro Baltimore jobs are down .5% over the last 12 months, every other top 50 is positive.
The Baltimore area is exceptionally cheap, even Howard County has the same median house price as suburban Collin County, TX, Harford, Owings Mills, and other suburban parts of metro Balt are much lower. One reason it's so cheap is the lack of jobs.
That doesn’t make it exceptionally cheap. Collin County is the most expensive area of DFW and with Rockwall and Fort Bend County alternate as the wealthiest county in Texas. If you want to compare to a suburban county literally any other county in DFW would be more realistic, except for Rockwall. I think Tarrant County especially outside Fort Worth is more realistic for the average DFW suburbia or Denton. Collin County is the center of the North Dallas relative unaffordability crisis, in which outside of actual demand housing is just expensive.
That's because there are no jobs there. Metro Baltimore jobs are down .5% over the last 12 months, every other top 50 is positive.
The Baltimore area is exceptionally cheap, even Howard County has the same median house price as suburban Collin County, TX, Harford, Owings Mills, and other suburban parts of metro Balt are much lower. One reason it's so cheap is the lack of jobs.
Not even close...(2021 number is the latest available). Howard County especially is VERY expensive.
And before you tell me "Stop nitpicking single county", well, Denton County is cheaper than Collin, and Kaufman County is even cheaper. There are no jobs in DFW metroplex I guess? (Which is...ehh...no).
BTW, Philly metro is even cheaper - and places like Montgomery County (PA) and Bucks County and Chester County has MHI >100k but median housing price in $400k. But there are no jobs in Philly area also? (Which is, well, not even close to being the case).
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