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Will there be a 2070 projection or beyond? These projections are a bit far fetched in my opinion but still interesting nonetheless. I doubt San Antonio or Austin or any city or metro can sustain the same type of growth rate decade after decade.
Last edited by SweethomeSanAntonio; 05-13-2023 at 06:28 AM..
That post is really long, can yall truncate it when yall are quoting please?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SweethomeSanAntonio
Will there be a 2070 projection or beyond? These projections are a bit far fetched in my opinion but still interesting nonetheless. I doubt San Antonio or Austin or any city or metro can sustain the same type of growth rate decade after decade.
I agree. Houston and DFW for example has been adding about 100k people a year for the last 50 years (with the exception of a few in the 80s) so the raw growth has been consistent for decades but the percentage growth decreases as the base population increases.
I would put money on DFW gaining at least 1.2M this current decade, but the percentage growth will be far less than in the 00s. The growth the last 2 decades have been around 1.2M a decade, but the rate went from 23% in the 2000s to 19% in the 2010s despite the 2010s being actually slightly higher in raw numbers.
I think it is safe to say that Houston and DFW will gain about 4M in the next 40 years so the estimates are not that far fetched
Something like 35-40% of the world’s population live in the tropics. I don’t think is the subtropical weather is the deterrent you think it is.
This percentage is only gonna go up as well. The ideal temperature/climate it seems is a place that is coastal, relatively hilly with mountains nearby, between 65-90 degrees most of the year, not particularly rainy, and a river that goes throughout the city. I feel like that is probably the best you can get out of it for humans.
That post is really long, can yall truncate it when yall are quoting please?
I agree. Houston and DFW for example has been adding about 100k people a year for the last 50 years (with the exception of a few in the 80s) so the raw growth has been consistent for decades but the percentage growth decreases as the base population increases.
I would put money on DFW gaining at least 1.2M this current decade, but the percentage growth will be far less than in the 00s. The growth the last 2 decades have been around 1.2M a decade, but the rate went from 23% in the 2000s to 19% in the 2010s despite the 2010s being actually slightly higher in raw numbers.
I think it is safe to say that Houston and DFW will gain about 4M in the next 40 years so the estimates are not that far fetched
I think the estimates are fine for metros but the distribution is off. Especially for suburban counties. A lot of suburban counties max population is probably going to stall for a bit, because once these counties get a substantial buildout the density isn't going to increase much. By the time Fort Bend, Montgomery, Williamson, Denton and Collin County start hitting 1.5 million people counties like Brazoria, Liberty, Waller, Johnson, Ellis, Kaufman, Bastrop, Parker, Chambers, Galveston, Rockwall, Hays, Bell, Comal, Kendall, Guadalupe, Caldwell, etcetera, will be seeing major growth towards 500,000 for the smaller counties, and even more for the larger ones like Bell and Brazoria.
Also a lot of the central counties of Texas will grow because Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth actually have city politics and city policies at the center of their counties. So those cities will fund much more infill than the large suburban counties around them made up of mini cities. So central counties will see a lot more buildout growth and a lot more growth as it relates to density, while Fort Bend, Denton, Williamson, Montgomery and Collin will see lots of parcels ripe for development existing for years within their boundaries in already developed areas.
Something like 35-40% of the world’s population live in the tropics. I don’t think is the subtropical weather is the deterrent you think it is.
It's not. People vote with their feet. If anyone can tell you with a straight face they enjoy the notion of shoveling a foot of snow out of their driveway, they are bs'ing themselves and stay where they are out of accident of birth, and not wanting to make a dramatic change in their lives.
It's not. People vote with their feet. If anyone can tell you with a straight face they enjoy the notion of shoveling a foot of snow out of their driveway, they are bs'ing themselves and stay where they are out of accident of birth, and not wanting to make a dramatic change in their lives.
I despise heat and humidity, and will gladly take snowy winters any day of the week, as I've lived in multiple northern climate areas over time and plan on retiring to one. Most people that live in snowy climates have snow blowers, as using a shovel to clear snow is an archaic technology to say the least. Demographics of many rural northern areas of the US also skew very heavily toward a high percentage elderly population. Many areas of the northern Great Lakes region and northern New England have 25-35% of the total population over age 65, so a large number of people are not leaving for the Sunbelt, but there are certainly younger people leaving those places as well for better opportunities in metropolitan areas- that skews the remaining population that lives in those places to generally be older than the national average.
Again 40 years away...But I did quick math in excel for Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. I used growth rates from 2010-2020 and applied it through 2060, ~9.5% for NC, ~10.6% for GA, ~3% for PA...
My results show higher totals for all...
Georgia: 15,970,405
North Carolina: 15,008,300
Pennsylvania: 14,634,653.
And why is PA always undercounted in census predictions? I say they will be too close to firmly define. If the growth rates slow slightly in GA and NC and increase slightly in PA, then the order changes.
Anyways, more of a rhetorical post...
I actually foresee the order being NC, PA, and then GA in the future with NC having a sizeable lead above PA but then GA being just a hair behind PA. I agree that the U.S. Census Bureau always has problems with undercounting PA for unknown reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by unusualfire
We do not know that. It think the lower cost cities can boom if they play their cards right and advertise.
I would hope so. I am truly rooting for both Cleveland and Pittsburgh to bounce back. Pittsburgh feels like it has bounced back and is improving, but our continued population decline negates that.
One of the most ignored factors and cases against the idea that growth will continue uninterrupted in currently fast-growing Sun Belt states is the sustainability of its infrastructure.
I just don't see how much less dense and sprawly metropolitan regions can sustain millions more people with the current trajectory of traffic and very little investment in alternative transportation modes. It's literally impossible: https://fortune.com/2023/03/14/sunbe...onomic-growth/
Moreover, politically, the GOP has an increasing lock in governing all Sun Belt states (even the most Democratic-leaning state of GA), so investments in alternative transportation modes, and the power of localities to do so, looks dim. Make no mistake, these regions are not growing in any fashion like Northern/Midwestern cities have in the past, with much greater built-in walkability and propensity to concentrate growth in already-developed areas.
Sun Belt states have yet to truly understand what real growing pains look like, which will take away any competitive advantage they once had.
One of the most ignored factors and cases against the idea that growth will continue uninterrupted in currently fast-growing Sun Belt states is the sustainability of its infrastructure.
I just don't see how much less dense and sprawly metropolitan regions can sustain millions more people with the current trajectory of traffic and very little investment in alternative transportation modes. It's literally impossible: https://fortune.com/2023/03/14/sunbe...onomic-growth/
Moreover, politically, the GOP has an increasing lock in governing all Sun Belt states (even the most Democratic-leaning state of GA), so investments in alternative transportation modes, and the power of localities to do so, looks dim. Make no mistake, these regions are not growing in any fashion like Northern/Midwestern cities have in the past, with much greater innate walkability and propensity to concentrate growth in already-developed areas.
Sun Belt states have yet to truly understand what real growing pains look like, which will take away any competitive advantage they once had.
Yes, most of those Sunbelt developments are so auto-centric it seems like the majority of the built environment is not human scaled, but sprawl scaled.
People want warm weather throughout the year, and these numbers reflect that. I will maintain this simple notion to my dying day. The general public will pay more if it means being exempt or nearly exempt from shoveling snow.
I live in Massachusetts, and the number of shovel-able snow events we had this past winter was 2 or 3. Not to mention, most people in this climate invest in snow blowers--making it done in a pinch.
This is a very common experience now throughout the Northeast and Midwest, but especially in the Northeast Corridor, and especially with climate change. This is the "new normal."
The real question is: how much heat can Southerners get acclimated to when half the summer starts to become unbearable?
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