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Remember the "Big Dig" in Boston, the most expensive highway project in the US. The project was originally scheduled to be completed in 1998 at an estimated cost of $2.8 billion (in 1982 dollars, US$7.4 billion adjusted for inflation as of 2020). However, the project was completed in December 2007 at a cost of over $8.08 billion (in 1982 dollars), $21.5 billion adjusted for inflation, meaning a cost overrun of about 190%) as of 2020.
Send similar size monies to southern metropolises and watch things improve.
On the big dig, if somewhere like Atlanta or Austin does something like this, the benefits would be huge. I mean the Big Dig could have inflated to $100 billion and the benefits would have been still way worth it. It literally help build two entirely new neighborhoods The Seaport District & Cambridge Crossing) and continue investing/making other neighborhoods more attractive.
I would love to see something like this in the sunbelt, because the benefits would be even greater. It would be truly transformational for a city like Dallas or Atlanta.
Now go to the extreme temperatures, both northern states and southern states. Then find out how many of both were in the year 1936. Many within 4-5 months of each other. I don't think anyone was talking about "climate change" in 1936, but, wow how the climate was changing that year! And very quickly. In fact, the 1930s seems to be quite the climate changing decade.
Now that we have MSAs out of the picture, here's CSA figures for 2060. The numbers below for each CSA are the sum the MSA/Micropolitan Areas listed in bullets below. In this first tranche we have all current CSAs with more than 5 million people (with July 1, 2022 estimates in parentheses)
Atlanta CSA: 10,687,696 (7,088,898)
Athens: 293,932
Atlanta: 9,549,279
Cedartown: 49,706
Cornelia: 64,715
Gainesville: 299,067
Jefferson: 154,431
LaGrange: 119,389
Rome: 102,487
Thomaston: 27,403
Toccoa: 27,287
Boston-Providence CSA: 9,262,809 (8,413,327)
Barnstable Town: 238,171
Boston: 5,482,207
Concord: 176,633
Laconia: 71,811
Manchester: 476,766
Providence: 1,735,949
Worcester: 1,081,272
Chicago CSA: 10,465,298 (9,806,184)
Chicago: 10,097,097
Kankakee: 113,990
Michigan City: 113,057
Ottawa: 141,154
Dallas-Fort Worth CSA: 13,504,776 (8,449,932)
Athens: 103,669
Bonham: 43,510
Corsicana: 61,629
Dallas: 12,859,554
Durant: 65,213
Gainesville: 49,849
Granbury: 114,611
Mineral Wells: 31,025
Sherman: 175,716
Detroit CSA: 5,210,461 (5,368,296)
Adrian: 99,063
Ann Arbor: 438,267
Detroit: 4,141,470
Flint: 369,268
Monroe: 162,393
Houston CSA: 12,081,924 (7,533,096)
Bay City: 36,055
Brenham: 45,614
El Campo: 43,043
Houston: 11,857,460
Huntsville: 99,752
Los Angeles CSA: 22,733,499 (18,372,485)
Los Angeles: 14,330,900
Oxnard: 1,006,643
Riverside: 7,395,956
Miami CSA: 9,679,296 (6,909,110)
Key West: 79,638
Miami: 8,417,310
Port Saint Lucie: 920,602
Sebastian: 261,746
New York CSA: 24,891,212 (23,143,097)
Bridgeport: 1,049,098
East Stroudsburg: 228,159
Kingston: 186,754
New Haven: 910,034
New York: 21,131,243
Poughkeepsie: 787,157
Torrington: 185,726
Trenton: 413,041
Philadelphia CSA: 8,151,385 (7,381,187)
Atlantic City: 295,476
Dover: 266,072
Ocean City: 88,395
Philadelphia: 6,843,384
Reading: 496,764
Vineland: 161,294
Phoenix CSA: 8,458,927 (5,069,600)
Payson: 60,333
Phoenix: 8,398,594
San Francisco-San Jose CSA: 11,989,943 (9,482,708)
Suffolk County MA, San Francisco + the rest of the Bay Area, and all 5 NYC counties seeing net increases by 2060 is really straining my mind. Although I guess a lot could change housing-policy-wise by then --- but I doubt these estimates are making that argument, just extrapolating from past growth.
Remember the "Big Dig" in Boston, the most expensive highway project in the US. The project was originally scheduled to be completed in 1998 at an estimated cost of $2.8 billion (in 1982 dollars, US$7.4 billion adjusted for inflation as of 2020). However, the project was completed in December 2007 at a cost of over $8.08 billion (in 1982 dollars), $21.5 billion adjusted for inflation, meaning a cost overrun of about 190%) as of 2020.
Send similar size monies to southern metropolises and watch things improve.
Suffolk County MA, San Francisco + the rest of the Bay Area, and all 5 NYC counties seeing net increases by 2060 is really straining my mind. Although I guess a lot could change housing-policy-wise by then --- but I doubt these estimates are making that argument, just extrapolating from past growth.
How is it that surprising? All of these areas are adding a tremendous amount of housing stock with dense urbanity and a fast growing economy.
I cant see it loose population, just keep up with the stock they add.
Found these projections today by a group called Woods and Poole and thought they were worth mentioning. They were issued in March.
Here are the numbers for 2060, though their database allows 5-year estimates through then.
I'll update this post as I add up different metros, and will also post the 2060 population for any county above 500k then, or any that also jump out at me (*). Would be curious to hear if anyone thinks differently:
Atlanta MSA: 9,549,279
Cherokee: 563,061
Cobb: 1,020,267
DeKalb: 859,672
Forsyth: 676,678
Fulton: 1,364,167
Gwinnett: 1,699,525
Henry: 535,191
Paulding*: 419,077
Austin MSA: 4,733,461
Hays: 598,882
Travis: 2,270,117
Williamson: 1,614,927
Baltimore MSA: 3,245,384
Anne Arundel: 721,213
Baltimore: 927,345
Baltimore city: 519,889
Howard*: 483,611
Boston MSA: 5,482,207
Essex: 900,509
Middlesex: 1,814,924
Norfolk: 800,693
Plymouth: 601,725
Suffolk: 839,864
Buffalo MSA: 1,077,787
Erie: 882,378
Cape Coral MSA: 1,541,413
Lee: 1,541,413
Charlotte MSA: 4,339,437
Mecklenburg: 1,856,574
Union: 539,028
York*: 499,916
Chicago MSA: 10,097,097
Cook: 4,713,998
DuPage: 968,531
Kane: 698,109
Lake: 769,349
Will: 1,044,167
Cincinnati MSA: 2,582,607
Butler*: 462,355
Hamilton: 781,164
Warren*: 368,544
Cleveland MSA: 1,967,566
Cuyahoga: 1,057,190
Columbus MSA: 2,890,149
Delaware*: 456,481
Franklin: 1,669,060
Dallas MSA: 12,859,554
Collin: 2,644,681
Dallas: 3,140,563
Denton: 2,145,303
Tarrant: 3,139,265
Deltona MSA: 1,025,961
Flagler*: 334,110
Volusia: 691,851
Denver MSA: 4,368,633
Adams: 832,564
Arapahoe: 898,555
Denver: 849,162
Douglas: 872,458
Jefferson: 670,717
Detroit MSA: 4,141,470
Macomb: 987,478
Oakland: 1,366,921
Wayne: 1,283,711
Grand Rapids MSA: 1,325,289
Kent: 792,385
Hartford MSA: 1,294,737
Hartford: 945,713
Houston MSA: 11,857,460
Fort Bend: 2,341,727
Galveston: 518,380
Harris: 6,482,327
Montgomery: 1,475,274
Indianapolis MSA: 2,796,695
Hamilton: 655,442
Marion: 1,051,080
Jacksonville MSA: 2,536,155
Duval: 1,254,621
Saint Johns: 699,042
Kansas City MSA: 2,757,852
Jackson: 758,591
Johnson: 879,662
Lakeland MSA: 1,188,577
Polk: 1,188,577
Las Vegas MSA: 4,450,013
Clark: 4,450,013
Los Angeles MSA: 14,330,900
Los Angeles: 10,541,454
Orange: 3,789,446
Memphis MSA: 1,547,556
Shelby: 943,376
Miami MSA: 8,417,310
Broward: 2,612,050
Miami-Dade: 3,490,735
Palm Beach: 2,314,525
Milwaukee MSA: 1,647,669
Milwaukee: 925,587
Minneapolis MSA: 4,734,051
Anoka*: 461,036
Dakota: 575,105
Hennepin: 1,473,042
Ramsey: 589,662
Nashville MSA: 3,182,539
Davidson: 838,773
Rutherford: 687,296
Williamson: 606,239
New Orleans MSA: 1,230,319
Jefferson*: 384,838
Orleans*: 269,660
Saint Tammany*: 396,960
New York MSA: 21,131,243
Bergen: 994,302
Bronx: 1,536,318
Essex: 852,901
Hudson: 770,005
Kings: 2,788,831
Middlesex: 976,949
Monmouth: 670,329
Morris: 549,294
Nassau: 1,416,482
New York: 1,661,973
Ocean: 836,455
Queens: 2,439,128
Richmond: 554,670
Suffolk: 1,624,062
Union: 592,127
Westchester: 1,057,082
North Port MSA: 1,334,295
Manatee: 642,400
Sarasota: 631,895
Orlando MSA: 4,800,127
Lake: 727,384
Orange: 2,421,423
Osceola: 977,746
Seminole: 673,574
Philadelphia MSA: 6,843,384
Bucks: 708,654
Burlington: 501,277
Camden: 528,954
Chester: 685,743
Delaware: 587,233
Montgomery: 970,656
New Castle: 658,072
Philadelphia: 1,639,448
Phoenix MSA: 8,398,594
Maricopa: 7,208,325
Pinal: 1,190,269
Pittsburgh MSA: 2,171,647
Allegheny: 1,104,134
Portland MSA: 3,505,422
Clackamas: 545,052
Clark: 833,878
Multnomah: 999,538
Washington: 895,739
Providence MSA: 1,735,949
Bristol: 625,773
Providence: 675,886
Raleigh MSA: 2,651,411
Wake: 2,156,385
Richmond MSA: 1,715,188
Chesterfield: 542,261
Richmond*: 256,560
Saint Louis MSA: 3,023,050
Saint Charles: 593,811
Saint Louis: 957,304
Saint Louis city*: 233,397
Salt Lake City MSA: 1,831,074
Salt Lake: 1,693,194
San Diego MSA: 4,328,242
San Diego: 4,328,242
San Francisco MSA: 5,650,651
Alameda: 2,024,000
Contra Costa: 1,525,672
San Francisco: 966,822
San Mateo: 851,348
Seattle MSA: 5,641,045
King: 3,163,798
Pierce: 1,287,206
Snohomish: 1,190,041
Tampa MSA: 4,701,648
Hillsborough: 2,165,709
Pasco: 1,112,290
Pinellas: 1,031,716
Virginia Beach MSA: 2,089,338
Chesapeake*: 330,837
Norfolk*: 233,652
Virginia Beach: 528,440
Washington MSA: 8,956,773
District of Columbia: 760,355
Fairfax/Fairfax city/Falls Church: 1,491,412
Loudoun: 1,125,413
Montgomery: 1,290,118
Prince George's: 1,079,011
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park: 960,602
Others Calculated that didn't top 1 million by 2060:
Madison MSA: 886,726
As one of the fastest growing regions in Florida and the nation, Lakeland will top 1 mil by 2030. Ample land and diverse business climate will help to facilitate the massive growth for the traditional rural county between Tampa/Orlando.
This idea that states & cities will continue to grow nationwide is farcical at best and highly irresponsible at worse.
The US is a slow growing country but what makes it unique in the international context for wealthy countries is that it is also a highly mobile one. Americans are far more likely to move out of the region than Canadians or Australians. This has resulted in a wholesale moving of your population base over the decades. This was sustainable when the US had higher growth rates as it still allowed your Great Lake/Atlantic Seaboard regions to post modest growth but that is definitely not the case now. There will be a wholesale decline of these areas populations and by 2060 only a few will benefit from a population decline of 5% with some with nearly 20%. As with all things, California is unique in that it too will suffer the same fate.
This not only has major political implication but real financial ones as well. These states will not only be smaller but MUCH older and have fewer taxpayers to support their swelling elderly populations, their state debt, and the crumbling and expansive infrastructure caused by decades of suburban sprawl...........Detroit is an excellent example of this.
Just as Canada has to grapple and plan for it's explosive growth rate, much of the US has to plan for population shrinkage not only financially but also in the urban & rural context. This notion that one's state will rebound and the good times will return makes for great political speeches but has no basis in fact. Youngstown & Toledo have had the guts to acknowledge this reality and have been at the forefront of such planning and it is paying dividends. Other cities/states would be wise to follow their examples.
Last edited by ssiguy; 05-21-2023 at 02:54 PM..
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