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With Georgia posting about 120k, I would assume that close to 100k of that would go to Atlanta metro. That means that ATL most probably blew past metro Philly and DC.
Looks like DFW and Houston also posted 100k+ .
Both might have posted near 150k.
On the flip side, I would assume most of Illinois losses would be attributed to Chicago. I'm thinking Chicago's losses might be even bigger than state losses as more could be moving away from Chicago but still in-state.
I wouldn't be surprised if DFW now has only a million people less that Chicago.
With Oregano's losses I would also bet that Austin has already passed both Pittsburgh and Portland.
I'm betting Charlotte, Orlando and San Antonio have all passed St Louis.
If the Bay area ever combines into one MSA it will likely be somewhere between 3-5 on the rankings depending on the year. Now it's going to be
1. NYC
2. LA
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Atlanta
in ten years will be
1. NYC
2. LA
3. Dallas
4. Houston
5. Chicago
6. Atlanta
I agree with all of this. I'm thinking Atlanta probably grew around 80K again, maybe a little over.
I'm quite envious of how Dallas and Houston continue to grow at impressive rates. Although Atlanta continues to grow, they seem to widen the gap each year.
DFW may be the third largest MSA in less than 10 years, that's very impressive.
I also can't wait to see how much Metro Miami grew because it's going to close in on Philly and DC in a few years.
Atlanta is not built to keep up with the Texas growth, DFW seemingly has unlimited land in every direction and much better infrastructure and a larger and stronger economy. I'm surprised Atlanta is still growing as fast as it is to be honest.
Wow, Florida is the largest for migration but lowest for natural increase.
Gives credit to all the retirees talk
Florida, the place Americans go to die
Just messing. Half my family is spread between Orlando, Jacksonville and Miami. Most of them are under 45.
Florida just has a crazy number of births/deaths (223,578/231,181) period (New York's 207,450/165,914 in comparison). CA's 414,120/302,704, and TX is 390,494/232,241.
What's really kinda jarring is domestic migration:
CA:-338,371
NY:-216,778
IL:-83,839
NJ:-44,666 (NJs net is 4,632)
MA:-39,149 (MA's net is 11,498)
MD:-30,905
LA:-29,692
PA:-24,825
WA:-15,276
MI:-15,051
HI:-11,193
Atlanta is not built to keep up with the Texas growth, DFW seemingly has unlimited land in every direction and much better infrastructure and a larger and stronger economy. I'm surprised Atlanta is still growing as fast as it is to be honest.
Obviously the Houston metro casn't grow into the Gulf, but I've felt pretty much that way about Houston as well....and the land around Houston seems flatter (easier to develop) for a longer distance than in DFW, and I'd say the winters in Houston have got to be milder than in DFW.
I honestly don't understand these numbers. They are truly baffling. DHS's own data shows there were 2,422,000 apprehensions from July 1, 2022-July 1, 2023. The overwhelming majority of these are released into the population with a court date to adjudicate their (usually asylum) claim to stay.
DHS also estimates 30% of migrants who attempt to cross are not apprehended. That's an additional 727,000 people who would have entered without being detained at the border.
Those two alone are 3,149,000 people in 1 year. And I don't see them reflected anywhere in the data even though ostensibly Census should be capturing them in the sampling. Where is the bounce to Chicago or New York from a year of migrants? This 3.1 million is just missing.
And that's before we consider natural increase in the country (which was 531,432 people) or legal immigration (~1 million).
So either DHS's data is wrong, or Census's data is wrong because the two datasets don't align. Does anyone have an explanation?
I honestly don't understand these numbers. They are truly baffling. DHS's own data shows there were 2,422,000 apprehensions from July 1, 2022-July 1, 2023. The overwhelming majority of these are released into the population with a court date to adjudicate their (usually asylum) claim to stay.
DHS also estimates 30% of migrants who attempt to cross are not apprehended. That's an additional 727,000 people who would have entered without being detained at the border.
Those two alone are 3,149,000 people in 1 year. And I don't see them reflected anywhere in the data even though ostensibly Census should be capturing them in the sampling. Where is the bounce to Chicago or New York from a year of migrants? This 3.1 million is just missing.
And that's before we consider natural increase in the country (which was 531,432 people) or legal immigration (~1 million).
So either DHS's data is wrong, or Census's data is wrong because the two datasets don't align. Does anyone have an explanation?
Perhaps the estimates don’t catch those people cause it’s largely based on like the USPS, housing data, birth, deaths etc. the estimates probably register people when they get a green card cause I think those numbers roughly match up.
They’re just chasing other departments paperwork. DHS probably isn’t on that list
Growth trends appear to be returning to pre-pandemic norms. Several states that had lost population through 2022 started growing again in 2023. This is also the first time I can recall when South Carolina was estimated to have the nation's fastest growth rate - but it's no surprise given the state's popularity for retirees.
SC has had a lot of companies locating here as well, adding job migrants to retirees.
It really only matters to me, but might be incidentally interesting to others
So, here's me hiding the new raw pop estimate numbers in a narrative form:
Spoiler
A few years ago, based off the 2020? pop, I tried splitting up the US into regions to see if I could somewhat evenly divide the states into eight regions by population (8 was the max size due to CA's pop). (AKA Census/Court regions were annoying me and I wondering how long a redivide would still somewhat reflect an evenish division)
They were:
NY NJ MA CT NH ME RI VT
PA OH MI IN
IL MO WI MN OK IA KS NE
NC VA TN MD KY WV DE DC
FL GA SC AL
TX LA AR MS
WA AZ CO OR UT NV NM ID MT SD ND AK WY
CA HI
New England + NY was just shy of being comfortably off the mark, but since the options to add were either NJ or PA, I just accepted that the region would just be noticeably higher than the rest (it also totally messed up the planned Mid-Atlantic block and ended up bonking OK away from TX, via FL-GA-AL having to hand over MS to take up SC). Likewise, the non-CA west, being a catch all, would be slightly below.
Whelp.
Here's the pops today:
FL GA SC AL: 44,121,976 (22,610,726; 11,029,227; 5,373,555; 5,108,468)
NY NJ MA CT NH ME RI VT: 44,021,834 (19,571,216; 9,290,841; 7,001,399; 3,617,176; 1,402,054; 1,395,722; 1,095,962; 647,464)
IL MO WI MN OK IA KS NE: 42,574,468 (12,549,689; 6,196,156; 5,910,955; 5,737,915; 4,053,824; 3,207,004; 2,940,546; 1,978,379)
PA OH MI IN: 41,647,078 (12,961,683; 11,785,935; 10,037,261; 6,862,199)
TX LA AR MS: 41,084,472 (30,503,301; 4,573,749; 3,067,732; 2,939,690)
NC VA TN MD KY WV DE DC: 40,865,018 (10,835,491; 8,715,698; 7,126,489; 6,180,253; 4,526,154; 1,770,071; 1,031,890; 678,972)
CA HI: 40,400,331 (38,965,193; 1,435,138)
WA AZ CO OR UT NV NM ID MT SD ND AK WY: 40,199,718 (7,812,880; 7,431,344; 5,877,610; 4,233,358; 3,417,734; 3,194,176; 2,114,371; 1,964,726; 1,132,812; 919,318; 783,926; 733,406; 584,057
New England + NY + NJ is no longer the top, much less the outlier. The catch all West region is also no longer a bottom outlier and is within spitting distance of overtaking CA + HI.
So, yeah, at this rate, this kind of thing would require a reassessment with every census.
Would you look at that, Alabama had the 11th highest population growth
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