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Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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Originally Posted by kyle19125
The "small market" Cleveland Browns average 67K per game in attendance, 16th out of 32 teams and Cleveland Cavaliers are 12th out of 30 with an average of 3K per game. The MLB Cleveland Guardians dropped to 25th out of 30 after the name change from Indians, and some fans will need a couple years to get over that apparently. A one team NHL expansion is probably not in the cards for league best interests, given the current eight team split among four conferences. I would guess a two or four team expansion with Atlanta and Houston perhaps, or a combination involving San Diego and Cleveland.
When considering satellite markets Cleveland isn't small. There's about 4 million people in NE Ohio within an hour or so of downtown (Akron, Canton, Youngstown, Warren, etc). If you look at Cincinnati for MLB the satellite markets (some split with other teams like Indy or Columbus) you looking at 7 million people within 2 hours of the stadium. In contrast a slightly large market like St Louis has far fewer people in nearby markets.
To be honest, neither Buffalo nor OKC check the boxes for a major league franchise in 2022. (With the exception of maybe Hockey in Buffalo, just because hockey is such a regional sport there are far fewer markets for it).
Buffalo's NFL team is a legacy institution. There is no way anyone would put a new team there today. OKC got an NBA team by having a local billionaire buy a team from another city and forcibly move it there. It wouldn't have been at the top of the list based on any kind of business metric, it was purely hometown pride. Good for OKC, a shame for Seattle.
I'll say it like this, Buffalo could still be considered for Football not necessarily for its metro area, but for the amount of people that live within a close proximity of the city, when considering the population in Canada, other parts of NY and PA close by. Keep in mind, Buffalo is a small metro in land area and if you combine it with just the Rochester area, it is essentially the Pittsburgh metro in population, but in less land area. Let alone other smaller/mid sized metros within a couple of hours and the Golden Horseshoe region of southern Ontario. I'd say there is about roughly 9-12 million people within a couple of hours or so of Buffalo. I don't know if people actually realize aspect about the city's location.
I'll say it like this, Buffalo could still be considered for Football not necessarily for its metro area, but for the amount of people that live within a close proximity of the city, when considering the population in Canada, other parts of NY and PA close by. Keep in mind, Buffalo is a small metro in land area and if you combine it with just the Rochester area, it is essentially the Pittsburgh metro in population, but in less land area. Let alone other smaller/mid sized metros within a couple of hours and the Golden Horseshoe region of southern Ontario. I'd say there is about roughly 9-12 million people within a couple of hours or so of Buffalo. I don't know if people actually realize aspect about the city's location.
I get what you are saying, but there are teams in Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. So it's hardly region lacking coverage by the NFL. It really comes down to Toronto, and if the goal is to get that market you'd simply put the team there rather than across the border in Buffalo.
The NHL already has a presence in Ohio with the Blue Jackets, which is kind of what I was hinting at.
Yes, Cleveland is fine without an NHL team. It does have an AHL team (which is the equivalent to Triple-A in baseball). And yes, there is Columbus and Pittsburgh within two hours of most of Northeast Ohio and then even Detroit and Buffalo are fairly close.
Pro markets, especially NBA and MLB, are determined even more off TV viewership than ticket sales anyway. The money is in the TV contracts. The way the big 5 leagues operate (I'll include MLS in that), Northeast Ohio and Columbus are considered the same (due to the regional cable contracts). Combined, you take the roughly 4 million in Northeast Ohio and the 2-plus million in Columbus (which population wise leans heavily to the north more toward Cleveland) and it's a combined pro market of 6 million. ... So, along the lines of Miami or Atlanta, which neither have multiple teams in any of the major sports.
Cleveland-Columbus (NE/Central Ohio) are covered with teams in all five of the major leagues. You can argue they are more covered than either Miami or Atlanta too because Columbus as the AAA baseball Clippers and Cleveland has the AHL hockey Monsters. Atlanta has a AAA baseball team, but no AHL team. Miami doesn't have AAA baseball or AHL.
Charlotte-Raleigh/Durham would be considered one where Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte will split major league franchises. Right now, it's Charlotte with the NFL, NBA, MLS and Raleigh with NHL. That area has to be the No. 1 destination for MLB and I think it will happen at some point. I'll be interesting to see if that would be a lock for Charlotte or if Raleigh-Durham could sneak in there and take it.
Austin-San Antonio also is in that same boat and it's a region that really underserved for one of over 4 million with just NBA in San Antonio and MLS in Austin. The reason I see for that is 1) would NHL be embraced there. 2) MLB I think would work and is IMO probably the MLB's No. 2 market if it's through expansion. 3) The NFL since it got its two teams back in LA is fine where it is (it was fine when LA was with 0 teams). The NFL is a different beast than any of the other 3/4 leagues.
Orlando-Tampa is also the same. And they are covered with all of them ... Orlando (NBA/MLS) and Tampa (NFL, NHL, MLB).
I'd also say that Nashville-Memphis is in this group as well, and they are now covered by four of the five with Memphis having NBA and Nashville with NFL, NHL and MLS. I can see that being an MLB target but I'd put it below Charlotte-Raleigh and Austin-San Antonio.
My updated list of possible new markets would be:
NFL - London. That already is one that the NFL has heavily invested in and the Jacksonville Jaguars were playing half their home games in London. But Jacksonville moving to London full time is the only one that could happen in the near future. If the NFL gets a full-time team in London, next up would be Mexico City where league is now also playing a game year.
NBA - Seattle and Las Vegas looks like are eminent. That would do it for expansion. Maybe you can argue that New Orleans and Memphis could be relocation candidates, though both have good young teams that can help solidify their presence in those markets ... and New Orleans does have Baton Rouge up the road so it's market is bigger than just NO. Oklahoma City is a small market, but if you follow the NBA, you know that OKC has absolutely embraced the Thunder with both solid attendance/high TV ratings.
MLB - This league is the slowest moving so who knows when they will decide to expand, but it seems like between Charlotte/Raleigh, Nashville/Memphis, Austin/San Antonio, there are three markets that would do well. I think they'll expand to two of those markets. As for relocation, there are some possibilities, with Oakland and Tampa being at the top. But I don't think they would be far relocations. The Rays I would think would look to Orlando first. The A's would look to Sacramento. If those don't happen, I'm not sure I see anything. I guess The Guardians going to Columbus can't be ruled out, but even if attendance isn't good, the Guardians still are annually in the top 10 (maybe even top 5) in local TV ratings.
I don't know enough about MLS or NHL to have an informed opinion there.
I'll say it like this, Buffalo could still be considered for Football not necessarily for its metro area, but for the amount of people that live within a close proximity of the city, when considering the population in Canada, other parts of NY and PA close by. Keep in mind, Buffalo is a small metro in land area and if you combine it with just the Rochester area, it is essentially the Pittsburgh metro in population, but in less land area. Let alone other smaller/mid sized metros within a couple of hours and the Golden Horseshoe region of southern Ontario. I'd say there is about roughly 9-12 million people within a couple of hours or so of Buffalo. I don't know if people actually realize aspect about the city's location.
Buffalo not having an NFL franchise is moot. They are building a new stadium.
Yes, Cleveland is fine without an NHL team. It does have an AHL team (which is the equivalent to Triple-A in baseball). And yes, there is Columbus and Pittsburgh within two hours of most of Northeast Ohio and then even Detroit and Buffalo are fairly close.
Pro markets, especially NBA and MLB, are determined even more off TV viewership than ticket sales anyway. The money is in the TV contracts. The way the big 5 leagues operate (I'll include MLS in that), Northeast Ohio and Columbus are considered the same (due to the regional cable contracts). Combined, you take the roughly 4 million in Northeast Ohio and the 2-plus million in Columbus (which population wise leans heavily to the north more toward Cleveland) and it's a combined pro market of 6 million. ... So, along the lines of Miami or Atlanta, which neither have multiple teams in any of the major sports.
Cleveland-Columbus (NE/Central Ohio) are covered with teams in all five of the major leagues. You can argue they are more covered than either Miami or Atlanta too because Columbus as the AAA baseball Clippers and Cleveland has the AHL hockey Monsters. Atlanta has a AAA baseball team, but no AHL team. Miami doesn't have AAA baseball or AHL.
Charlotte-Raleigh/Durham would be considered one where Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte will split major league franchises. Right now, it's Charlotte with the NFL, NBA, MLS and Raleigh with NHL. That area has to be the No. 1 destination for MLB and I think it will happen at some point. I'll be interesting to see if that would be a lock for Charlotte or if Raleigh-Durham could sneak in there and take it.
Austin-San Antonio also is in that same boat and it's a region that really underserved for one of over 4 million with just NBA in San Antonio and MLS in Austin. The reason I see for that is 1) would NHL be embraced there. 2) MLB I think would work and is IMO probably the MLB's No. 2 market if it's through expansion. 3) The NFL since it got its two teams back in LA is fine where it is (it was fine when LA was with 0 teams). The NFL is a different beast than any of the other 3/4 leagues.
Orlando-Tampa is also the same. And they are covered with all of them ... Orlando (NBA/MLS) and Tampa (NFL, NHL, MLB).
I'd also say that Nashville-Memphis is in this group as well, and they are now covered by four of the five with Memphis having NBA and Nashville with NFL, NHL and MLS. I can see that being an MLB target but I'd put it below Charlotte-Raleigh and Austin-San Antonio.
My updated list of possible new markets would be:
NFL - London. That already is one that the NFL has heavily invested in and the Jacksonville Jaguars were playing half their home games in London. But Jacksonville moving to London full time is the only one that could happen in the near future. If the NFL gets a full-time team in London, next up would be Mexico City where league is now also playing a game year.
NBA - Seattle and Las Vegas looks like are eminent. That would do it for expansion. Maybe you can argue that New Orleans and Memphis could be relocation candidates, though both have good young teams that can help solidify their presence in those markets ... and New Orleans does have Baton Rouge up the road so it's market is bigger than just NO. Oklahoma City is a small market, but if you follow the NBA, you know that OKC has absolutely embraced the Thunder with both solid attendance/high TV ratings.
MLB - This league is the slowest moving so who knows when they will decide to expand, but it seems like between Charlotte/Raleigh, Nashville/Memphis, Austin/San Antonio, there are three markets that would do well. I think they'll expand to two of those markets. As for relocation, there are some possibilities, with Oakland and Tampa being at the top. But I don't think they would be far relocations. The Rays I would think would look to Orlando first. The A's would look to Sacramento. If those don't happen, I'm not sure I see anything. I guess The Guardians going to Columbus can't be ruled out, but even if attendance isn't good, the Guardians still are annually in the top 10 (maybe even top 5) in local TV ratings.
I don't know enough about MLS or NHL to have an informed opinion there.
Nashville-Memphis and Charlotte-Raleigh are three hour drives, that really can't be treated as a single market. Maybe NFL and College Football work that way with a small number of home games that are mostly on weekends, but that's about it. Even Austin/SA is questionable given the amount of traffic between the cities on weekday evenings. There are also entrenched existing fandoms. For example, a new NFL team in SA is certainly not going to turn Cowboy fans living in Austin. The Spurs are now playing a few regular season games in Austin, so we will see where they go with that.
I do agree that MLB will likely expand to Austin, Charlotte, or Nashville within the next decade but if it happens it would have to be off of the strength of the individual cities; expecting to get fans driving from hours away would be a fool's errand.
Ultimately the real driving forces for this are 1.) do you have a motivated billionaire to serve the ownership role and 2.) do you have a shiny new arena/stadium to play (funded by either public dollars or said billionaire's own money). The textbook example of that is the Sonics moving from Seattle to OKC.
For MLS, conventional wisdom is that they go to Vegas and probably either Phoenix or maybe San Diego, but pretty much any city can jump up to the top of the list if they take care of the two things I mentioned above. Personally it seems like Vegas is quickly getting crowded, but maybe they can sell out games from tourists alone.
I get what you are saying, but there are teams in Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. So it's hardly region lacking coverage by the NFL. It really comes down to Toronto, and if the goal is to get that market you'd simply put the team there rather than across the border in Buffalo.
That is true about putting the team in Toronto, but you also have to consider that if it is put in Toronto, it is splitting attention with the CFL franchises in Toronto and Hamilton. If you put the team in Buffalo, you get the 3 million or so people within WNY/CNY/Southern Tier and you get some people from nearby parts of Ontario and PA. So, there would be a difference between putting the team in Toronto and putting one in Buffalo, which would get fans from NY State. That is why I’m saying that putting the team in Buffalo makes a difference in terms of a potential fan base, because even if you split the fan base on the Canadian side, you get the fan base in NY and NW PA within a couple of hours or so of the stadium. Most of those people state side aren’t going to attend games in those 3 other areas on a regular basis.
Buffalo not having an NFL franchise is moot. They are building a new stadium.
Exactly…Plus, the fan base is loyal and bigger than people may realize. It also doesn’t hurt that the league commissioner has roots in the area/region as well.
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