A Hollywood boycott would hurt the film industry and Georgia’s economy (Atlanta: transplants, how much)

[citidata18]

So I know I've been saying that the film industry injects $7 billion worth of investment into the state's economy, but according to the article below from CNBC, it actually brings in $9.5 billion.

And it's not just about the stuff currently in production, but also stuff in pre-production which can up and relocate much more easily, such as with the Amazon project called "The Power" that was set to film in Savannah.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/01/a-ho...s-economy.html

[AUGnative]

The $7 blllion number is pure BS. Politifact debunked that claim. The Georgia Office of Econ Development uses an outdated econ multiplier number. The actual direct spending by the film industry in Georgia is somewhere in the $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion range. Obviously the econ impact goes beyond that but the $7 billion number is absurdly exaggerated. Georgia's econ multiplier model is around 3.45 which is more than twice the standardly accepted econ multiplier model. Georgia's model also fails to account how much of that spending is actually captured in Georgia. The real econ impact is around half of what Georgia officials throw out. This number is still a significant amount but it is drip in the bucket considering what other industries generate who do not receive the overly generous tax subsidies the film industries do. Also the film industry is not a state wide industry. It is mostly centered in metro Atlanta and Savannah.

[CaliDreaming01]

One of the most frightening things about this whole debacle is that many conservatives are unable to grasp what this move is going to do to GA's economy. No matter how you slice it, one of our major industries has taken a direct hit, but our leadership seems to be unwilling to acknowledge it or do anything to stop or prevent hemorrhaging.

I had thought by signing the bill, Kemp had made a decision that he was willing to sacrifice the film industry to secure his conservative base. However, now it seems clear to me that he's underestimating the impact of this bill. He needs to be taking action, but he seems to have his head in the sand. Unlike Deal, he does not seem to have the leadership skills to navigate the state through these treacherous waters.

The comparisons between him and Deal are unavoidable, but to be fair to Kemp, he has a much more difficult political terrain to navigate than Deal did. When Deal was in office, Cobb and Gwinnett were still seemed to be eternally red and he was still able to smash Jason Carter in winning reelection. Kemp is dealing with a Georgia where he was only able to squeak in a victory by about 50K votes only with an avalanche of die-hard red voters, a significant number of whom are very elderly. He seems to recognize that his only hope at reelection is to keep those dwindling red voters engaged and 100% on his side.

Ultimately, I think there is really nothing Kemp can do to hold back the blue wave that is building. If there were no term limits and Deal were in still in office, I think he would be throwing his red base under the bus and trying to build a new base of moderate Republicans, Democrats and independents.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

One of the most frightening things about this whole debacle is that many conservatives are unable to grasp what this move is going to do to GA's economy. No matter how you slice it, one of our major industries has taken a direct hit, but our leadership seems to be unwilling to acknowledge it or do anything to stop or prevent hemorrhaging.

I had thought by signing the bill, Kemp had made a decision that he was willing to sacrifice the film industry to secure his conservative base. However, now it seems clear to me that he's underestimating the impact of this bill. He needs to be taking action, but he seems to have his head in the sand. Unlike Deal, he does not seem to have the leadership skills to navigate the state through these treacherous waters.

The comparisons between him and Deal are unavoidable, but to be fair to Kemp, he has a much more difficult political terrain to navigate than Deal did. When Deal was in office, Cobb and Gwinnett were still seemed to be eternally red and he was still able to smash Jason Carter in winning reelection. Kemp is dealing with a Georgia where he was only able to squeak in a victory by about 50K votes only with an avalanche of die-hard red voters, a significant number of whom are very elderly. He seems to recognize that his only hope at reelection is to keep those dwindling red voters engaged and 100% on his side.

Ultimately, I think there is really nothing Kemp can do to hold back the blue wave that is building. If there were no term limits and Deal were in still in office, I think he would be throwing his red base under the bus and trying to build a new base of moderate Republicans, Democrats and independents.

The problem with Kemp is by appealing to the far-right extremists in rural Georgia and exurban Atlanta, he risks further alienating the more moderate Republicans who are concerned about the state becoming increasingly hostile to business.

An individual in the article made a good point though. Georgia is at a crossroads and more liberal residents have a tough choice to make. If the film industry (which has aided in attracting more liberal voters and northern transplants who seek work and thus shifting the political balance) and those who are upset about the extremist measures Kemp and his fellow party members are pushing just up and left, it will just ensure that the state remains solidly red and stuck in the 1950s. At the same time, by sticking around and sucking up their behavior until the political transition is complete, it doesn't hold these individuals accountable and gives them more freedom to throw anything at the wall and see what sticks while they still have control/power.

Sad part is this is probably what they want (one representative even admitted such during the whole HQ2 circus), if it means maintaining the character of the state they grew up in (one of regressiveness and intolerance).

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

One of the most frightening things about this whole debacle is that many conservatives are unable to grasp what this move is going to do to GA's economy. No matter how you slice it, one of our major industries has taken a direct hit, but our leadership seems to be unwilling to acknowledge it or do anything to stop or prevent hemorrhaging.

~$2 billion is a lot, but Georgia’s gross state product is more than $600 billion. So filmmaking represents around .3% of our economy.

I’m not in favor of the bill at all, but there is a lot of noise from Hollywood activists that create more press than economic hardship.

While the state is turning purple, I disagree with multiple inferences here that “blue” means being enlightened while “red” means being an ignorant caveman.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by markjames68

~$2 billion is a lot, but Georgia’s gross state product is more than $600 billion. So filmmaking represents around .3% of our economy.

I’m not in favor of the bill at all, but there is a lot of noise from Hollywood activists that create more press than economic hardship.

While the state is turning purple, I disagree with multiple inferences here that “blue” means being enlightened while “red” means being an ignorant caveman.

$2 billion is only the amount of direct spending the film industry puts into the economy. The true impact is much greater. The intangible is the message this sends to businesses in general: the leadership in GA puts politics above business. It's one thing if a state like MS or AL does something like this. They already had a negative reputation. GA up to now has been known as one of the best states in the country to do business, a reputation Gov. Deal jealously guarded. This undermines that reputation in a big way.

It's not a red or a blue issue, because you have other deep red states like South Carolina where economics trumps politics.

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

$2 billion is only the amount of direct spending the film industry puts into the economy. The true impact is much greater. The intangible is the message this sends to businesses in general: the leadership in GA puts politics above business. It's one thing if a state like MS or AL does something like this. They already had a negative reputation. GA up to now has been known as one of the best states in the country to do business, a reputation Gov. Deal jealously guarded. This undermines that reputation in a big way.

It's not a red or a blue issue, because you have other deep red states like South Carolina where economics trumps politics.

Ok, so maybe it’s 1% of GA’s economy. Still not huge.

But...

1) I do agree with your premise that this puts politics above business. What Kemp SHOULD have done was to outline his case as a benefit as well as the risks, and then put it to a referendum. It’s a big issue, let the people decide. If 70% are in favor of abortion he could have made his case and then thrown his hands in the air when it didn’t pass.

2) 1% doesn’t sound great but if the economy slows it could be the difference between anemic growth and recession - which politically will hurt him come the next election.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by markjames68

While the state is turning purple, I disagree with multiple inferences here that “blue” means being enlightened while “red” means being an ignorant caveman.

I disagree as well, but Repubs in our state House and Senate do little to dissuade this image.

[Pemgin]

Originally Posted by markjames68

~$2 billion is a lot, but Georgia’s gross state product is more than $600 billion. So filmmaking represents around .3% of our economy.

I’m not in favor of the bill at all, but there is a lot of noise from Hollywood activists that create more press than economic hardship.

While the state is turning purple, I disagree with multiple inferences here that “blue” means being enlightened while “red” means being an ignorant caveman.

In Georgia, it often does.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k4pMTsa1Kw

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by Pemgin

In Georgia, it often does.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k4pMTsa1Kw

I'll raise yours with some Hank Johnson. His line that he believes that Guam will tip over due to overpopulation and capsize is classic.