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This is a Gwinnett Daily Post article that talks about how the large number of new residents moving to Georgia (particularly metro Atlanta) have helped to make Georgia (a state that was very recently dominated by Republicans) more competitive for Democrats in recent electoral cycles.
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Andrew Lu moved to Georgia in 2017. By 2018, he was canvassing for Stacey Abrams' gubernatorial campaign.
The 35-year-old, who was working in Oakland, California, before the move, said he was a registered Republican until his early 20s. But even when he had a change of heart politically, he says he usually didn't vote...
... Lu is among the hundreds of thousands of Georgia transplants who experts say have played a part in helping shift the state's political demographics -- a shift that made the once Red state a political battleground in 2020. Georgia voted for a Democratic president for the first time in nearly 30 years -- but the win was narrow, with President-elect Joe Biden taking the lead with fewer than 13,000 votes.
I personally feel its a mixed pot. Alot of people moving from NY and CA are fairly conservative, or.. ..moderate.. leaning not too far to either side and are just looking for something not so extreme in polarity.
I personally feel its a mixed pot. Alot of people moving from NY and CA are fairly conservative, or.. ..moderate.. leaning not too far to either side and are just looking for something not so extreme in polarity.
That’s a good point that raises another important point, which is that it was earlier waves of migration of white newcomers from the Northeast and Midwest into the state that helped to propel Georgia’s transition from being a Democrat-controlled/dominated state through the mid-late 20th Century to being a Republican-controlled and dominated during much of the first 2 decades of the 21st Century (the 2000’s and the 2010’s).
Along with some Northern transplants migrating into the Columbus, Augusta, Savannah, Warner Robins, South Atlanta, Valdosta and Albany areas, after being stationed at military installations in those areas, Cobb County was the spot where the Republican Revolution of the late-20th/early-21st Century seemed to have started in Georgia.
Cobb County seemed to be fertile breeding ground for the Republican Revolution to take hold in Georgia because it was the site of the massive Lockheed military aircraft manufacturing plant at Dobbins Air Force Base in Marietta, a facility which attracted many GOP-supporting white transplants from Northern states.
Retired Republican Georgia U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson got his start in business and politics by selling homes as a real estate agent in Cobb County during the late 20th Century.
Given the seemingly near-total domination of Georgia politics by the GOP in recent years before the apparent resurrection of the Georgia Democratic apparatus over the last 4 years or so, it may be hard for many to believe that might have been a time when there were only a relative handful of registered Republicans in the state.
But there was a time when there were only a relative handful of registered Republicans in the state of Georgia (particularly before the Reagan Revolution of 1980, with seemingly just about all of them being clustered in Cobb County, Buckhead and about a couple of isolated rural counties up in the North Georgia mountains along with a relative scant few located near the aforementioned military bases in and around the state).
... And Johnny Isakson was one those relative handful of registered Republicans in the state, being one of only 27 Republicans in the entire Georgia Legislature (23 in the GA House and 4 in the GA state Senate) after being first elected to the GA House back in 1976.
It was the continuing mass migration of affluent and middle-class white transplants into the explosively growing Atlanta suburbs (including Cobb, North Fulton, Gwinnett counties, etc.) that combined with the growing popularity of the GOP in national politics through the Sun Belt and the Midwest that propelled the GOP to power and dominance in a Southern state like Georgia during the late 20th Century and into the first 2 decades of the 21st Century.
But as of circa-2021, it appears to be the growing number of minority (Black, Latino and Asian) newcomers migrating into the state (whom appear to have been making up a majority of the newcomers moving into the state over the last several years) who (along with many moderate white newcomers from the Northeast, Midwest and California) are propelling a (not necessarily surprising, but still stunning) resurgence of the Democratic Party in Georgia politics.
The Democratic Party does not flip the control of 6 suburban metro Atlanta counties over the past 12 years and win the state of Georgia in a presidential election for the first time in nearly 3 decades (and for only about the 2nd time in the last 40 years) if a majority of those migrating into the state are not at least willing to vote for Democrats much, if not most of the time.
(... Since 2008, Democrats have gained control of county political apparatuses in Rockdale, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Cobb and Gwinnett counties in the expansive Atlanta suburbs, adding to the local political apparatuses that the Democrats already controlled in Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton counties and the City of Atlanta.)
This is a Gwinnett Daily Post article that talks about how the large number of new residents moving to Georgia (particularly metro Atlanta) have helped to make Georgia (a state that was very recently dominated by Republicans) more competitive for Democrats in recent electoral cycles.
“And a former public school student himself, he's also concerned about having a strong schooling system, something he said he wasn't confident about during the Trump administration.
"It's like death by a thousand cuts," he said. "It does feel like no matter where you go, there's an important issue, and the stakes are always high."”
School performance is determined at the local and state level. But if he wants to turn Georgia Democrat that’s within his rights. As with any other resident. But perhaps he won’t like the result if suddenly there’s higher taxes or restrictions on his wife’s business, or their income.
Why did he move here from California? If it had anything to do with friendly business policies, lower taxes or a lower cost of living then much of that is due to Georgia being fiscally conservative.
Too many people move and then try and change a place to where they came from.
Also, we have a couple of weeks left in the current Administration, so the policies he complains about won’t be in place much longer.
That’s a good point that raises another important point, which is that it was earlier waves of migration of white newcomers from the Northeast and Midwest into the state that helped to propel Georgia’s transition from being a Democrat-controlled/dominated state through the mid-late 20th Century to being a Republican-controlled and dominated during much of the first 2 decades of the 21st Century (the 2000’s and the 2010’s).
Along with some Northern transplants migrating into the Columbus, Augusta, Savannah, Warner Robins, South Atlanta, Valdosta and Albany areas, after being stationed at military installations in those areas, Cobb County was the spot where the Republican Revolution of the late-20th/early-21st Century seemed to have started in Georgia.
Cobb County seemed to be fertile breeding ground for the Republican Revolution to take hold in Georgia because it was the site of the massive Lockheed military aircraft manufacturing plant at Dobbins Air Force Base in Marietta, a facility which attracted many GOP-supporting white transplants from Northern states.
Retired Republican Georgia U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson got his start in business and politics by selling homes as a real estate agent in Cobb County during the late 20th Century.
Given the seemingly near-total domination of Georgia politics by the GOP in recent years before the apparent resurrection of the Georgia Democratic apparatus over the last 4 years or so, it may be hard for many to believe that might have been a time when there were only a relative handful of registered Republicans in the state.
But there was a time when there were only a relative handful of registered Republicans in the state of Georgia (particularly before the Reagan Revolution of 1980, with seemingly just about all of them being clustered in Cobb County, Buckhead and about a couple of isolated rural counties up in the North Georgia mountains along with a relative scant few located near the aforementioned military bases in and around the state).
... And Johnny Isakson was one those relative handful of registered Republicans in the state, being one of only 27 Republicans in the entire Georgia Legislature (23 in the GA House and 4 in the GA state Senate) after being first elected to the GA House back in 1976.
It was the continuing mass migration of affluent and middle-class white transplants into the explosively growing Atlanta suburbs (including Cobb, North Fulton, Gwinnett counties, etc.) that combined with the growing popularity of the GOP in national politics through the Sun Belt and the Midwest that propelled the GOP to power and dominance in a Southern state like Georgia during the late 20th Century and into the first 2 decades of the 21st Century.
But as of circa-2021, it appears to be the growing number of minority (Black, Latino and Asian) newcomers migrating into the state (whom appear to have been making up a majority of the newcomers moving into the state over the last several years) who (along with many moderate white newcomers from the Northeast, Midwest and California) are propelling a (not necessarily surprising, but still stunning) resurgence of the Democratic Party in Georgia politics.
The Democratic Party does not flip the control of 6 suburban metro Atlanta counties over the past 12 years and win the state of Georgia in a presidential election for the first time in nearly 3 decades (and for only about the 2nd time in the last 40 years) if a majority of those migrating into the state are not at least willing to vote for Democrats much, if not most of the time.
(... Since 2008, Democrats have gained control of county political apparatuses in Rockdale, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Cobb and Gwinnett counties in the expansive Atlanta suburbs, adding to the local political apparatuses that the Democrats already controlled in Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton counties and the City of Atlanta.)
Great summary of the history. I wonder how much Trump has affected the swing. I know several center right Republicans who shifted due to a dislike of Trump, but I also know several people who never voted before actually show up in recent years to vote for or against Trump. I don't think the "Trump effect" is stronger than the underlying population shifts you described and Georgia will continue to be a swing state, but I am starting to see people use this year's election as proof that Georgia will continue trending more and more Democratic like Virginia. I think it will be more like North Carolina and this jump left may be temporary and we will see more mixed elections in the future with governorships and other state offices bouncing between parties.
Also, while Cobb, Gwinnett, etc are trending bluer, further out counties like Cherokee are booming and staying very very red even with the influx of new people. There is a lot of redistribution of votes going on in the state as well. It will be interesting to watch in the coming years.
Great summary of the history. I wonder how much Trump has affected the swing. I know several center right Republicans who shifted due to a dislike of Trump, but I also know several people who never voted before actually show up in recent years to vote for or against Trump. I don't think the "Trump effect" is stronger than the underlying population shifts you described and Georgia will continue to be a swing state, but I am starting to see people use this year's election as proof that Georgia will continue trending more and more Democratic like Virginia. I think it will be more like North Carolina and this jump left may be temporary and we will see more mixed elections in the future with governorships and other state offices bouncing between parties.
Those are excellent points and analysis.
I think that Trump may have greatly aided the swing of Georgia from red to purple, with many disaffected moderate and center-right Republicans (including many college-educated suburban Republicans, and particularly many moderate and center-right college-educated female Republicans) appearing to vote against Trump more than vote for Biden for president while also sometimes voting for other Republicans in down-tickets races.
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Originally Posted by midgeorgiaman
Also, while Cobb, Gwinnett, etc are trending bluer, further out counties like Cherokee are booming and staying very very red even with the influx of new people. There is a lot of redistribution of votes going on in the state as well. It will be interesting to watch in the coming years.
That’s a really good point about further out metro Atlanta counties like Cherokee (and Forsyth, Paulding, etc.) staying very red while other metro Atlanta suburban counties like Cobb and Gwinnett (and Rockdale, Douglas, Henry and Newton) trend bluer along with already deep-blue core metro Atlanta counties like Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton).
Though, one thing that stood out to me during the 2020 election cycle is a still decidedly red metro Atlanta suburban county like Fayette.
Fayette County stayed red during the 2020 election cycle, but Donald Trump and the GOP appeared to carry the county by only about 7 percentage points in 2020 (53-46), after Brian Kemp carried Fayette County by about 13 points during the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle.
In 2016, Trump and the GOP won Fayette County by about 19 points (57-38) after the GOP carried the county by 31 points during both the 2012 and 2008 presidential election cycles, and after the GOP carried Fayette County by as many as 43 points (71-28) back in 2004.
Fayette County is still a majority-GOP jurisdiction, but the Democrats closing the gap from R+43 down to only R+7 in 16 years seems to be very noteworthy.
The Democrats narrowing the GOP advantage from 43 points in ‘04 down to only 7 points in ‘20 also makes sense with the continuing explosion of the minority population in Fayette County.
As of 2019, racial and ethnic minorities made up nearly 40 percent of Fayette County’s population, compared to 1980 when racial and ethnic minorities only made up about a little over 5 percent of the county’s population.
African-Americans in particular have gone from being just a little over 4 percent of Fayette County’s population in 1980 to being more than 25 percent of the county’s population as of 2019.
With the northern part of Fayette County appearing to be an increasingly popular destination for Black transplants in recent years, Fayette County does not appear to be the safely Republican county that it appeared to be just a few cycles ago.
Forsyth County is another outer-suburban county that appears to be safely-Republican for now (Trump and the GOP won Forsyth County by about 33 points in 2020), but whose exploding minority population seems to make it have the potential for it to be a county to watch in coming years.
(Forsyth County’s minority population has grown from about 1 percent in 1980 to about 31 percent as of 2019, with Asians making up about 16 percent of Forsyth County’s population as of 2019.)
“And a former public school student himself, he's also concerned about having a strong schooling system, something he said he wasn't confident about during the Trump administration.
"It's like death by a thousand cuts," he said. "It does feel like no matter where you go, there's an important issue, and the stakes are always high."”
School performance is determined at the local and state level. But if he wants to turn Georgia Democrat that’s within his rights. As with any other resident. But perhaps he won’t like the result if suddenly there’s higher taxes or restrictions on his wife’s business, or their income.
Those are some good points about school performance and about the California transplant in the article having his personal right to attempt to turn Georgia blue.
But even if Democratic-voting transplants like the gentleman from California and other transplants like him from various other states do ultimately succeed in helping turn Georgia into a decidedly blue state, I don’t know if that would automatically mean that taxes and business regulations would be destined to increase to the point of making Georgia an undesirable place to relocate and do business.
Virginia seems to be a good example of a state that recently has transitioned from being a Republican-controlled/dominated state (as recently as 2004) to increasingly being a Democratic-controlled state that appears to still be an extremely attractive relocation target and destination for business interests.
Even as an apparently decidedly blue state, once deep-red Virginia is still an extremely attractive target for business relocations to the point that the now decidedly blue state lured Amazon’s massive new East Coast headquarters (and all of exceedingly generous business/economic investment that comes with it) about 2 years back to the bluest part of the state in the Northern Virginia suburbs of the Washington DC metro area.
If Georgia were to fully transition to being a decidedly blue state as many expect it to eventually do, I think that the state likely would go the way of a formerly deep-red, now decidedly blue state like Virginia when it comes to taxes, regulation and business climate, instead of being like much more business-averse states like California, Illinois, New York, etc.
Also remember that Georgia was a very business-friendly state during the era that the Democrats controlled and dominated Georgia state government and politics before the turn of the Millennium.
Republicans (particularly during the gubernatorial administration of Nathan Deal, who used to be a Democrat before switching to the GOP later in his political career) have been able to continue build on that successful foundation that their Democratic predecessors laid for them, often with the help of Democratic municipal leaders like (the boosterific, but admittedly ethically flawed) former Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed.
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Originally Posted by markjames68
Why did he move here from California? If it had anything to do with friendly business policies, lower taxes or a lower cost of living then much of that is due to Georgia being fiscally conservative.
That is a good question asking why the gentleman from California moved to Georgia and those are good points describing what were probably (if not obviously) his motivations for moving from CA to GA.
And, you seem to be right on in reasoning that he most likely was motivated to move from CA to GA because of Georgia’s much more business-friendly climate (the article said that his wife owns a wholesale business), lower taxes and a lower cost-of-living that have been sustained by Georgia’s fiscal conservatism.
It is that desire by most transplants to Georgia from higher-cost other parts of the country (including progressive/left-of-center transplants) to live in a more lower-cost business-friendly environment that likely will help to keep Georgia from becoming as decidedly adverse to business and middle and working-class living as deep-blue states like California, Illinois and New York most notably have in many cases.
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Originally Posted by markjames68
Too many people move and then try and change a place to where they came from.
Yeah, that’s a good point.
Though in defense of the left-of-center newcomers who move to a conservative state like Georgia seeking to change it to a blue state in the 21st Century, it was right-of-center and conservative newcomers to Georgia from the Midwest and the Northeast in the late 20th Century that powered Georgia’s original transition from Democratic control and domination to Republican control and domination.
Those right-of-center/conservative Midwestern and Northeastern newcomers that helped turn Georgia from strongly Democratic to staunchly Republican also helped to give metro Atlanta a much more Northern feel even with the metro area being geographically located in the Deep South.
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Originally Posted by markjames68
Also, we have a couple of weeks left in the current Administration, so the policies he complains about won’t be in place much longer.
Yeah. That is a really good point.
But apparently, he and the hundreds-of-thousands of left-of-center and moderate newcomers like him have been doing much more than just complaining about the Trump administration policies that they dislike.
They have been voting in large (if not massive and apparently unprecedented) numbers to the point of putting Republican’s recent total control and domination of Georgia politics in very serious doubt during recent major political contests... Recent major political contests like the 2018 Gubernatorial Election, the 2020 Presidential Election and (of course) the current bitterly-contested double runoff election for both of Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats.
And those hundreds-of-thousands left-of-center and moderate newcomers to Georgia have not just necessarily been motivated to vote by the Trump administration policies that they may not like, but most often appear to have been highly motivated to vote by Trump’s often highly (historically) abrasive personality traits combined with the apparent emotional instability that he frequently (and sometimes constantly) projects to the public.
The negative traits of the Trump administration seriously appear to have turned progressive and moderate complaints into a high level of progressive activism and progressive activity at the polls... Which is an occurrence that apparently figures to make life significantly more challenging for the Republicans who have dominated Georgia politics for the last two decades.
Even as an apparently decidedly blue state, once deep-red Virginia is still an extremely attractive target for business relocations to the point that the now decidedly blue state lured Amazon’s massive new East Coast headquarters (and all of exceedingly generous business/economic investment that comes with it) about 2 years back to the bluest part of the state in the Northern Virginia suburbs of the Washington DC metro area.
Note that the DC area was likely appealing due to (1) proximity to lobbying for Amazon’s interests and (2) Bezos’ ownership of WaPo. I haven’t read anything about the specific business climate there being a determining factor.
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If Georgia were to fully transition to being a decidedly blue state as many expect it to eventually do, I think that the state likely would go the way of a formerly deep-red, now decidedly blue state like Virginia when it comes to taxes, regulation and business climate, instead of being like much more business-averse states like California, Illinois, New York, etc.
It would take decades, and likely not get as bad as NY or CA, but you’ll see creep. During Biden’s recent visit he pretty much said “vote for Ossoff and Warnock and you’ll get another $2000 check”. I won’t get political with this comment but from an economic perspective it can get inflationary (there are concerns about increasing inflation in 2021 due to an overheated/overstimulated economy). I won’t be getting any check but I’m sure the new Administration will get me to pay for it somehow.
Translate this to the state level and a push for higher wages, more benefits, more programs, bigger government, etc. will start to creep up. 1% income tax increase here, 1% sales tax increase there, and eventually the policies and lower costs go away.
As you pointed out, GA has been very business friendly because it had some Democrat leaders in Atlanta AND a lot of Republican conservative state representatives. A good balance. NY and CA happen because their legislatures are dominated by one party. I have lived in NY and my wife in CA and we’ve seen what happened. Not over years but decades of corruption and waste.
What concerns me more is the progressive wave in the Democratic Party and that bigger policy shifts in their platform could happen.
So no, there’s no immediate risk to Atlanta and Georgia, but it is something to consider.
Note that the DC area was likely appealing due to (1) proximity to lobbying for Amazon’s interests and (2) Bezos’ ownership of WaPo. I haven’t read anything about the specific business climate there being a determining factor.
It would take decades, and likely not get as bad as NY or CA, but you’ll see creep. During Biden’s recent visit he pretty much said “vote for Ossoff and Warnock and you’ll get another $2000 check”. I won’t get political with this comment but from an economic perspective it can get inflationary (there are concerns about increasing inflation in 2021 due to an overheated/overstimulated economy). I won’t be getting any check but I’m sure the new Administration will get me to pay for it somehow.
Translate this to the state level and a push for higher wages, more benefits, more programs, bigger government, etc. will start to creep up. 1% income tax increase here, 1% sales tax increase there, and eventually the policies and lower costs go away.
As you pointed out, GA has been very business friendly because it had some Democrat leaders in Atlanta AND a lot of Republican conservative state representatives. A good balance. NY and CA happen because their legislatures are dominated by one party. I have lived in NY and my wife in CA and we’ve seen what happened. Not over years but decades of corruption and waste.
What concerns me more is the progressive wave in the Democratic Party and that bigger policy shifts in their platform could happen.
So no, there’s no immediate risk to Atlanta and Georgia, but it is something to consider.
I agree with some points made by Born and some of the above remarks. I do believe the ability of Democratic Atlanta and Republican state leaders to work together has been very beneficial to our state (not ignoring the other cities as I see it there too, but as Atlanta goes, so goes Georgia). There may be some creep as you say, but others would argue that a little creep is needed. I don't like waste and view government as a usually inefficient way to get things done, but often the only entity that makes sense when the common good is at stake. Nobody will every agree what that line is though.
Back to my point, the states that are balanced get it right more often than not and in our region that is Virginia, NC, and GA. The states without balance and all Democrats such as CA and NY struggle with regulations and the states the other way with all Republicans like OK/MS/AR/ and to a lesser extent AL and SC struggle with quality of life issues and recruiting top talent to move there. Balance is the key to me.
And connecting this to the original post--I really don't see the influx of people to GA from more liberal areas to be a huge cultural shift in our state as we have a pretty good mix and can absorb a lot before it really changes things and while we are indeed seeing many move from NY and CA and other very liberal areas, I would argue that many of the business-associated transplants are probably more moderate as far-left and business are not the best of friends. Additionally, a huge number of our new residents are from neighboring states who come to Atlanta for job opportunities not available in other southern states and these people are likely to be fairly typical southern college educated transplants who are fiscally conservative and socially more open. Our balance is entrenched for a good while in my opinion.
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