New MSA estimates for 2023 (Atlanta, Columbus: how much, find a job, construction)

[UptwnRsdnt]

Columbus has a consolidated city-county, while Savannah's city limits are only a portion of Chatham County, which will never consolidate like Columbus, Macon or Augusta.

Comparing apples to apples, Chatham (most populous county outside metro Atlanta) grew by 30k during the same period, vs 17k in Muscogee, 6k in Richmond, or 2k in Bibb.

Originally Posted by Fountain-of-youth

Lol BRAC happened last decade and the yearly estimates for Columbus had a net loss for five straight years. However,once the 2020 census number was released it showed a different story! A 17k+ growth in city pop. Out pacing,Savannah,Macon and Augusta in that category.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by Fountain-of-youth

Lol BRAC happened last decade and the yearly estimates for Columbus had a net loss for five straight years. However,once the 2020 census number was released it showed a different story! A 17k+ growth in city pop. Out pacing,Savannah,Macon and Augusta in that category.

City populations are artificial constructs, and there's nothing more artificial than a consolidated city-county like Columbus or Jacksonville. By your logic, Jacksonville is "outpacing" Atlanta by a mile. But it's the metropolitan population that gives us the true size and stature of a city. This week's big news wasn't that Jacksonville's consolidated city-county (971,000 people) is "larger" than the City of Atlanta (499,000), but that the Atlanta metro area (6,307,261 in 2023) just leapfrogged Washington and Philadelphia to become the nation's 6th-largest metro. And everyone and his granny knows that Atlanta is a bigger place than Jacksonville.

[All In for Augusta]

Originally Posted by UptwnRsdnt

Columbus has a consolidated city-county, while Savannah's city limits are only a portion of Chatham County, which will never consolidate like Columbus, Macon or Augusta.

Comparing apples to apples, Chatham (most populous county outside metro Atlanta) grew by 30k during the same period, vs 17k in Muscogee, 6k in Richmond, or 2k in Bibb.

Augusta is not in same category as Columbus. Yes Augusta is consolidated like Columbus with Richmond County even though not entirely because of the cities of Hephizibah and Blythe in Richmond County. But the Augusta area as whole is the 2nd largest in Georgia by a mile. Most of the residents new residents coming to Augusta move to the bedroom counties next to Richmond. In Columbia county in Georgia and Aiken county in South Carolina. To large bedroom communities of Augusta. Outside of chatham county there is no other large counties like Aiken and Columbia. Bryan and effingham counties just can't compare. Like mason said city populations really don't matter. It's more about metro areas. Also if we look at the estimates savannah metro only slightly outpaced Augusta metro in terms of new residents.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by All In for Augusta

Augusta is not in same category as Columbus. Yes Augusta is consolidated like Columbus with Richmond County even though not entirely because of the cities of Hephizibah and Blythe in Richmond County. But the Augusta area as whole is the 2nd largest in Georgia by a mile. Most of the residents new residents coming to Augusta move to the bedroom counties next to Richmond. In Columbia county in Georgia and Aiken county in South Carolina. To large bedroom communities of Augusta. Outside of chatham county there is no other large counties like Aiken and Columbia. Bryan and effingham counties just can't compare. Like mason said city populations really don't matter. It's more about metro areas. Also if we look at the estimates savannah metro only slightly outpaced Augusta metro in terms of new residents.

Agree with much in your post -- until the very end: basic statistics. Augusta's metro has 200,000 more residents than Savannah's. It should be drawing in far more new residents than it is, based on its size. Yet it has been growing at a slower clip than Savannah for more than a decade now. Metro Savannah is not "slightly outpacing" Augusta's growth but "significantly outpacing" Augusta's growth in terms of percentage. US Census doesn't define "fast-growing" by counting new heads; the percentage rate is what counts the heads. Metro Gainesville and metro Warner Robins also show more dynamic growth than Augusta (which is rather modest).

[All In for Augusta]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

Agree with much in your post -- until the very end: basic statistics. Augusta's metro has 200,000 more residents than Savannah's. It should be drawing in far more new residents than it is, based on its size. Yet it has been growing at a slower clip than Savannah for more than a decade now. Metro Savannah is not "slightly outpacing" Augusta's growth but "significantly outpacing" Augusta's growth in terms of percentage. US Census doesn't define "fast-growing" by counting new heads; the percentage rate is what counts the heads. Metro Gainesville and metro Warner Robins also show more dynamic growth than Augusta (which is rather modest).

Yes I agree with you. Savannah in terms of population growth has significantly outpaced Augusta growth the past decade. I was mainly referring to the estimates for the past 2 to 3 years. Even though Augusta metro is not growing as fast. I wouldn't call 8 percent growth modest. It's not 16 percent like Savannah which is kinda crazy and not the norm for an area its sized. But it's not 3 or 4. Which in my opinion is modest. That's healthy consist growth figures. Even with the outpaced growth figures of Savannah compared to Augusta. I still don't see Savannah metro surpassing Augusta anytime soon because Augusta metro is still growing and at decent healthy clip and not stagnant or losing population like other metros in the state.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by All In for Augusta

I still don't see Savannah metro surpassing Augusta anytime soon because Augusta metro is still growing and at decent healthy clip and not stagnant or losing population like other metros in the state.

Agree. Metro Savannah won't catch up to second-place Augusta. What I think it will do is distance itself much further from the rest of Georgia's second tier -- except Augusta. Even Savannah's core county, Chatham, is growing. Its outer MSA and CSA counties are booming.
.

[DSMRE]

Originally Posted by All In for Augusta

Yes I agree with you. Savannah in terms of population growth has significantly outpaced Augusta growth the past decade. I was mainly referring to the estimates for the past 2 to 3 years. Even though Augusta metro is not growing as fast. I wouldn't call 8 percent growth modest. It's not 16 percent like Savannah which is kinda crazy and not the norm for an area its sized. But it's not 3 or 4. Which in my opinion is modest. That's healthy consist growth figures. Even with the outpaced growth figures of Savannah compared to Augusta. I still don't see Savannah metro surpassing Augusta anytime soon because Augusta metro is still growing and at decent healthy clip and not stagnant or losing population like other metros in the state.

And this is why raw numbers matter more to me. If you aren't adding more people you aren't going to pass another city just based on percentage. Percentage is based on current size of a place.

[PJA]

Originally Posted by DSMRE

And this is why raw numbers matter more to me. If you aren't adding more people you aren't going to pass another city just based on percentage. Percentage is based on current size of a place.

I never got why some people try to put more weight on percentages especially when comparing cities or metros that don’t have roughly the same population. To me if you’re adding more people in raw numbers than another city then you’re growing faster regardless of percentage numbers.

[UptwnRsdnt]

At the current percentage growth, it would take maybe 50+ years for Savannah to reach the same population as Augusta.

To respond to the point above, Savannah did add more in raw numbers, just not enough to overtake Augusta any time soon.

One way it could happen in just a couple decades is with the increased economic ties between Savannah and its CSA, which totals 640,193 as of 2023 and grew over 5% in 3 years. With all of the development in the region up and down I-16 Savannah and Statesboro, especially Hyundai/suppliers 15k+ jobs coming to the area, you never know. At one point, Augusta's MSA included just Richmond and Aiken counties, then added Columbia, then the smaller counties.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by UptwnRsdnt

To respond to the point above, Savannah did add more in raw numbers, just not enough to overtake Augusta any time soon.

Exactly right. It's not just that metro Savannah's percentage growth rate is twice metro Augusta's. Savannah is also attracting more new residents than Augusta, and has for the last decade. With Savannah being one-third smaller than Augusta, it shouldn't be achieving raw numbers like that at all. That's rare anywhere in the Southeast.