Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
1) the US still produces more engineers than most (but not all) nations. Industrialisation means stability.
2) Most of the world's top universities are in US
3) It is separated from the rest of the world by the pacific and atlantic ocean ; there are no near neighbours that can challenge it (is that correct, in a age of global flight?)
4) It still has the world's strongest military
5) Shale oil drilling will give the US energy independence; (again, maybe too early to tell, but let us see)
Do any of you dispute any or all of the 5 points above?
also, take a look inside the masters and phd programs in engineering at american college. A good deal are foreigners. Most americans are avoiding engineering and comp sci for a more cushy line like "psychology" in order to fulfill the dreams of becoming a manager.
2) college education is mostly a scam. Hence millions of college graduates working min wage jobs. at best, a college education is a signaling tool. I say this an almost graduate from as a senior dual comp sci and econ student from an ok university (60 us news rankings). Complete waste of time. College is a business now. A tax exempt business.
3) a nuke from China will take 33 minutes reach usa according to this article.
Let's do some math as well. let's say it goes 10,000 mph. Beijing to San Fran is roughly 6000 miles away. half hour is a bit generous, let's say 45 mins with air resistance, etc.
4) woo. we get to be in trillions of dollars in debt for a strong military. China and Pakistan still have nukes and probably wouldn't mind using it against us. Hell, terrorists are gaining more and more control of pakistan as we speak. They may actually gain control of a nuke soon. Kind of nullifies our "Strongest military in the world" point
5) While I'm pretty sure the reason behind gas price drop is to tighten a noose around Russia, the price drop is hurting the shale oil business.
even when prices go up again (hopefully Russia will implode before this, otherwise this whole entire battle was pointless), shale oil isn't as hopeful as it sounds.
will usa be a superpower? yes. Will it have complete dominance? No.
China is surpassing us already in GDP. A huge percent are middle class. India isn't too far behind with a small, yet substantial middle class. That is quite a few other people with purchasing power and thus give their country some economic power (which translates to other forms of power).
Last edited by stellastar2345; 01-08-2015 at 11:22 PM..
China is a joke along with the rest of the BRIC nations for that matter. The United States will never need to go to war with China in the forseeable future because China is essentially sournded by nations that don't want to see it become the ruler of the world and that will fight China if it pushes them to far. China won't go trying to take over the Korean Pennisula due to North Korea having nukes and attacking South Korea would cause a war that the west would join against China which China would lose. China can't take over Siberia or Mongolia since Russia would use nukes in a war against China. China can't take over Kazakhstan since it would get into a war with Russia and even other Central Asian and middle eastern countries would retaliate. In fact if China tries to take over any part of central Asia that would cause a war between China and Russia.
China is not going to invade Pakistan due to Pakistan having nuclear weapons and the fact it would have to deal with groups like the Taliban (same goes for Afghanistan) which China would prefer not to have to deal with. It's not going to invade India or southern Asia since that would cause a war between India and China. As far as South East asia goes they will unite if need be to fight China. None of the countries bordering the South China sea is giving into China's claims to the South China sea and the US isn't going to allow China to claim the entire south China sea either. So as far as military adventurism goes in it's own neighborhood China is for practical purposes walled in. Sure they send troops to test the borders so often but China isn't stupid enough to go to war against it's neighbors. I could go into other problems China has that might/will prevent it from over taking the United States like toxic smog pollution (breathing the air is like smoking 6 packs of cigarettes each day), separatism (Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau, etc.), discontent with the government etc. But I think I gave enough.
As far as economies go China's demographics are horrible and the country is going to lose hundreds of millions of workers over the next few decades (same goes for India). There is a saying that China is going to get old before it gets rich and as of right now barring some kind of miracle that saying appears to be absolutely true. As far as the rest of the BRICS go Russia is becoming a petroleum state/resource colony for other countries and is way past it's heyday. It's not the threat that it was to the United States during the cold war and is going to continue to weaken in the forseeable future. Brazil is still in recession and is going to get past economically by Mexico which is going to stay above Brazil so Brazil really isn't that impressive at all. India is facing the same demographic doom China is and South Africa is nowhere near the same league as the United States in terms of power.
Now as far as other contenders go the only other one out there that can rival the United States is the European Union. The problem with the EU is that it's not united. It's not even a nation state. It's somewhere between a confederacy and federation that might fall apart. The UK could very well leave the EU and it's a good question if the EU would survive that and if other countries might leave the EU if the UK does as well. Last but not least the European Union has ba demographics and that is going to wreck havoc on the economies of Europe in the next few decades.
So to answer your question OP will the United States still be the strongest superpower in 40 years the answer to that as of right now looks like the answer is Yes.
China is a joke along with the rest of the BRIC nations for that matter. The United States will never need to go to war with China in the forseeable future because China is essentially sournded by nations that don't want to see it become the ruler of the world and that will fight China if it pushes them to far. China won't go trying to take over the Korean Pennisula due to North Korea having nukes and attacking South Korea would cause a war that the west would join against China which China would lose. China can't take over Siberia or Mongolia since Russia would use nukes in a war against China. China can't take over Kazakhstan since it would get into a war with Russia and even other Central Asian and middle eastern countries would retaliate. In fact if China tries to take over any part of central Asia that would cause a war between China and Russia.
China is not going to invade Pakistan due to Pakistan having nuclear weapons and the fact it would have to deal with groups like the Taliban (same goes for Afghanistan) which China would prefer not to have to deal with. It's not going to invade India or southern Asia since that would cause a war between India and China. As far as South East asia goes they will unite if need be to fight China. None of the countries bordering the South China sea is giving into China's claims to the South China sea and the US isn't going to allow China to claim the entire south China sea either. So as far as military adventurism goes in it's own neighborhood China is for practical purposes walled in. Sure they send troops to test the borders so often but China isn't stupid enough to go to war against it's neighbors. I could go into other problems China has that might/will prevent it from over taking the United States like toxic smog pollution (breathing the air is like smoking 6 packs of cigarettes each day), separatism (Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau, etc.), discontent with the government etc. But I think I gave enough.
As far as economies go China's demographics are horrible and the country is going to lose hundreds of millions of workers over the next few decades (same goes for India). There is a saying that China is going to get old before it gets rich and as of right now barring some kind of miracle that saying appears to be absolutely true. As far as the rest of the BRICS go Russia is becoming a petroleum state/resource colony for other countries and is way past it's heyday. It's not the threat that it was to the United States during the cold war and is going to continue to weaken in the forseeable future. Brazil is still in recession and is going to get past economically by Mexico which is going to stay above Brazil so Brazil really isn't that impressive at all. India is facing the same demographic doom China is and South Africa is nowhere near the same league as the United States in terms of power.
Now as far as other contenders go the only other one out there that can rival the United States is the European Union. The problem with the EU is that it's not united. It's not even a nation state. It's somewhere between a confederacy and federation that might fall apart. The UK could very well leave the EU and it's a good question if the EU would survive that and if other countries might leave the EU if the UK does as well. Last but not least the European Union has ba demographics and that is going to wreck havoc on the economies of Europe in the next few decades.
So to answer your question OP will the United States still be the strongest superpower in 40 years the answer to that as of right now looks like the answer is Yes.
Leave out China, Russia and all the BRICS and the entire EU out of the picture, and let us say there is no war at all. So according to the above points, China and India would not overtake anyone due to demographics and the US will do better than the EU in demographics?
Status:
"Let this year be over..."
(set 26 days ago)
Location: Where my bills arrive
19,225 posts, read 17,105,490 times
Reputation: 15540
To the original question "Do you think the US will remain the world's strongest superpower in 40 yrs? Pls state reasons"
I will say yes at this time because we remain the only one willing to be the worlds policeman. Whether this is right or wrong who knows but until we tire of getting in the middle??
Leave out China, Russia and all the BRICS and the entire EU out of the picture, and let us say there is no war at all. So according to the above points, China and India would not overtake anyone due to demographics and the US will do better than the EU in demographics?
China and India aren't going to do much better going into the future then they currently are due to demographics. The EU is facing separatism that it's doing a bad job of dealing with and the separatists (UKIP, National Front, etc) I would say are winning ideologically. So the chances of the EU splitting up are very real as of now.
No. We are suffering from Great Power fatigue. We have no desire to impose our will on recalcitrant parts of the world, especially if it means an American might be killed or if it will cost money. That is what a Great Power does. It's what the USSR did, what England did, what France did.
We did it until Viet Nam, when we were at the zenith of our power. Since then our power has been receding but it wasn't noticed because the other Great Powers, the USSR, was receding even faster.
I believe the era of Great Powers is over. The world might revert to pre-19th century politics where regional powers have sway over their spheres. We in the Americas, China in the Far East, Russia or Germany in Europe. No one really has the stomach to bear the burden. World order will have to fend for itself.
China is a joke along with the rest of the BRIC nations for that matter. The United States will never need to go to war with China in the forseeable future because China is essentially sournded by nations that don't want to see it become the ruler of the world and that will fight China if it pushes them to far. China won't go trying to take over the Korean Pennisula due to North Korea having nukes and attacking South Korea would cause a war that the west would join against China which China would lose. China can't take over Siberia or Mongolia since Russia would use nukes in a war against China. China can't take over Kazakhstan since it would get into a war with Russia and even other Central Asian and middle eastern countries would retaliate. In fact if China tries to take over any part of central Asia that would cause a war between China and Russia.
China is not going to invade Pakistan due to Pakistan having nuclear weapons and the fact it would have to deal with groups like the Taliban (same goes for Afghanistan) which China would prefer not to have to deal with. It's not going to invade India or southern Asia since that would cause a war between India and China. As far as South East asia goes they will unite if need be to fight China. None of the countries bordering the South China sea is giving into China's claims to the South China sea and the US isn't going to allow China to claim the entire south China sea either. So as far as military adventurism goes in it's own neighborhood China is for practical purposes walled in. Sure they send troops to test the borders so often but China isn't stupid enough to go to war against it's neighbors. I could go into other problems China has that might/will prevent it from over taking the United States like toxic smog pollution (breathing the air is like smoking 6 packs of cigarettes each day), separatism (Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau, etc.), discontent with the government etc. But I think I gave enough.
As far as economies go China's demographics are horrible and the country is going to lose hundreds of millions of workers over the next few decades (same goes for India). There is a saying that China is going to get old before it gets rich and as of right now barring some kind of miracle that saying appears to be absolutely true. As far as the rest of the BRICS go Russia is becoming a petroleum state/resource colony for other countries and is way past it's heyday. It's not the threat that it was to the United States during the cold war and is going to continue to weaken in the forseeable future. Brazil is still in recession and is going to get past economically by Mexico which is going to stay above Brazil so Brazil really isn't that impressive at all. India is facing the same demographic doom China is and South Africa is nowhere near the same league as the United States in terms of power.
Now as far as other contenders go the only other one out there that can rival the United States is the European Union. The problem with the EU is that it's not united. It's not even a nation state. It's somewhere between a confederacy and federation that might fall apart. The UK could very well leave the EU and it's a good question if the EU would survive that and if other countries might leave the EU if the UK does as well. Last but not least the European Union has ba demographics and that is going to wreck havoc on the economies of Europe in the next few decades.
So to answer your question OP will the United States still be the strongest superpower in 40 years the answer to that as of right now looks like the answer is Yes.
You are not taking into consideration that modern warfare will be fought in cyberspace. Infrastructure will be damaged without physical intervention other than keystrokes.
No. We are suffering from Great Power fatigue. We have no desire to impose our will on recalcitrant parts of the world, especially if it means an American might be killed or if it will cost money. That is what a Great Power does. It's what the USSR did, what England did, what France did.
We did it until Viet Nam, when we were at the zenith of our power. Since then our power has been receding but it wasn't noticed because the other Great Powers, the USSR, was receding even faster.
I believe the era of Great Powers is over. The world might revert to pre-19th century politics where regional powers have sway over their spheres. We in the Americas, China in the Far East, Russia or Germany in Europe. No one really has the stomach to bear the burden. World order will have to fend for itself.
This does sound somewhat more in line with history........if that is the case. then maybe each power have their own spheres of influence.
No. We are suffering from Great Power fatigue. We have no desire to impose our will on recalcitrant parts of the world, especially if it means an American might be killed or if it will cost money. That is what a Great Power does. It's what the USSR did, what England did, what France did.
We did it until Viet Nam, when we were at the zenith of our power. Since then our power has been receding but it wasn't noticed because the other Great Powers, the USSR, was receding even faster.
I believe the era of Great Powers is over. The world might revert to pre-19th century politics where regional powers have sway over their spheres. We in the Americas, China in the Far East, Russia or Germany in Europe. No one really has the stomach to bear the burden. World order will have to fend for itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwa1984
China and India aren't going to do much better going into the future then they currently are due to demographics. The EU is facing separatism that it's doing a bad job of dealing with and the separatists (UKIP, National Front, etc) I would say are winning ideologically. So the chances of the EU splitting up are very real as of now.
But in terms of demographics, how do you think the US will do compared to India and China?
For example, China and India will lose out to the US on demographics, but some countries have fast growth rate (like Indo-China arend South America).
I would rate the chances of seperatism in the US as extremely low; unless there is a sudden shift or unexpected development in the US
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
