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Will the rise of AI , will the myth/metric of Job creation still be relevant??
The myth/metric of Job creation is based in the historical pattern of an ever increasing population.
More specifically.. the need for that ever increasing number to be able to support themselves.
In 1920 the US had ~106,000,000 and we were leading the world in manufacturing.
In 1940 the US had ~132,000,000 and managed to fight on three fronts and win WW2
In 1960 the US had ~179,000,000 at the apex of the post war boom and birth of the tech era.
In 1970 the US had ~203,000,000 after the post war boom ended and need for people had declined.
In 2017 the US has ~326,000,000 with a precipitously low and ever declining need for workers.
The historical pattern of an ever increasing population is, has been, the problem...
and irrespective of the influences or effects of AI.
Will the the myth/metric still be relevant in the future? Absolutely.
The questions are whether we're smart enough to not continue to succumb to it...
and which of those previous population levels will be the "sweet spot" to settle in at.
Last edited by MrRational; 05-19-2017 at 05:30 AM..
It truly is different this time. Not only people have to compete with more people for jobs and resources due a larger population, but the number jobs available are shrinking. In the 60's a factory might employ, say, 3,000 workers. Today, thanks to automation, robots, and AI, the same factory can be as productive with just 500 workers. On top that, global job outsourcing has not been kind to workers. This trend will accelerate.
What do the unemployed and underemployed do? New welfare classes have to be created to feed folks. The government, through the military and civil organizations, have been good at employing many people, but there is only so much tax money to go around. Even health care, one of a few growing fields, won't have enough jobs for everyone.
I suspect the population will decrease and things will even out in the long run.
It truly is different this time. Not only people have to compete with more people for jobs and resources due a larger population, but the number jobs available are shrinking. In the 60's a factory might employ, say, 3,000 workers. Today, thanks to automation, robots, and AI, the same factory can be as productive with just 500 workers. On top that, global job outsourcing has not been kind to workers. This trend will accelerate.
What do the unemployed and underemployed do? New welfare classes have to be created to feed folks. The government, through the military and civil organizations, have been good at employing many people, but there is only so much tax money to go around. Even health care, one of a few growing fields, won't have enough jobs for everyone.
I suspect the population will decrease and things will even out in the long run.
If robots, and AI is supposedly killing jobs than how do you explain record low UE rates?
The business cycle and a bottoming out of globalization.
The AI argument is being made concerning technology that really is quite recent, some small effects are only now starting up. You'll have to wait a while to see if you're right.
My home state of Maine is not considered wealthy by any means but our UE rate is at a record breaking 3.0%
IMHO Automation is not being used to take away jobs, it is being used to fill unfillable positions.
RR
Always dig deeper and look beyond the face value of anything you read and see. How were these statistics compiled? How many of those jobs are full time,, or part time jobs? How many of those jobs are high-pay jobs? How many of those jobs are minimum wage jobs? How many of these jobs are government-sponsored welfare type jobs?
I thought have heard it all, but automation is being used to fill unfillable positions? This is a new one. The hundreds of thousands of assembly line workers who lost their jobs would be pleased to hear that automation was not the reason they lost their jobs.
Here is guy who is a venture capitalist and college professor who has some great insights on this whole thing.
Take a close look at the Toyota manufacturing plant. A plant like that used to have a few thousand workers. Now there is none. So much for the automation is used to fill unfillable positions theory.
Will the rise of AI , will the myth/metric of Job creation still be relevant??
You watch too much sci fi tv. AI has been talked about for as long as i been alive i'm almost 40 where is it? AI will only exist if society as a whole will want it or allow it.
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