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Its not erasing humanity, its just drastically changing the world around us.
LOTS of people will survive this and continue to live, people WILL rebuild, it may take decades upon decades to get anywhere close to how the world was before this, but it will happen eventually, Rome fell at one time, but Rome is still around today and they are doing fine.
I think actually if anything this entire situation is an example of what happens when -- in our intermediary phase here as a species -- we pretend that we are NOT animals. There is way too much craziness in trying to "save everyone," and acting as though natural selection is some great evil, like survival of the fittest is just behind us, we have conquered it. Sadly, in many ways, we have conquered it in the most horrible fashion, which is to say we keep people alive long past their expiration dates but with very little quality of life. One day, yes, we will have the technology to cure aging, to combat any virus or cancer (nanotechnology, perhaps, acting as a first line of defense instead of white blood cells), and to increase quality of life for everyone. We just aren't there yet.
So instead, we have went crazy and decided that we should shut down the entire world over what is, basically, the flu. The newest data has confirmed that, so I have to stop saying otherwise. When this first hit the news cycle, I thought people calling it the flu were idiots who didn't know any of the data. Now, they just happened to luck into being right (they still were ignoring the data at the time). It's not just one or two studies to ignore anymore, there are countless ones. The one out of USC today indicated anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000+ have been infected with Coronavirus in L.A. County, yet there are only 600 deaths, which means the fatality rate is 0.02% -- FIVE TIMES less than the seasonal flu. Data out of Santa Clara wasn't far off, indicating a mortality rate somewhere between 0.08% and 0.20%. In any case, it's very similar to flu numbers. The only real difference -- and it is a meaningful one -- is the R0, which is just over 2, so it's twice as contagious as the flu and nobody has any immunity to it. That last part is somewhat offset by the fact that it seems the vast majority of people -- maybe as high as 90% -- have zero symptoms from the virus at all, or very few in any case. That's the only explanation for how so many people get this thing and didn't even know they had it to begin with. When you have a much more contagious "super flu," you're going to have many more deaths, but the actual mortality rate isn't any higher from the current data that's available.
The media goes to great lengths to highlight individuals who have died of the Coronavirus, though, especially if anyone is younger than 50, they'll run profile pieces, human interest stories, all of this to get us to do what's best for us -- stay home. Although, the real motivation is clearly profit. The scarier the virus is, the more we read the news. It works for me, I've read the news 10 times as much as before this all started. Yet it's the DATA not the human interest stories that tells the picture.
Nobody wants to say what Bill Burr, the comedian, said years ago because he's a comedian ha ha ha he was just being funny. This world isn't for the weak, it never has been, and nature cleanses the weak from any species, it always has, and there's only so much you can screw with that reality. Yet people can't wait to rush in, "What if that was your (dad / mom / uncle / grandpa / whatever)?!" Well, it would be sad, because it's sad whenever a loved one passes away, clearly, from ANY cause. But is that enough to shutter the world economy because someone somewhere might die of something? No, it isn't. The world is for the living, so you either get busy living or you get busy dying, but either way, life goes on.
I'm sure this is a horribly inconvenient truth for many people who were hoping to politicize the Coronavirus, I mean the fact that it's really not that lethal, and that it amounts to a seasonal flu outbreak on steroids, that sucks all around if you're an anti-Trumper, but it's time to celebrate as humans because this is GOOD news! Fewer people dying, we can reopen the economy faster, and maybe this pathetic virus that turned out to be a wimp compared to a really scary pathogen like Ebola can help us prepare for "The Big One" that, who knows, might come around in our lifetimes. A lot of good can come from all this.
Here's what you're not getting - THERE IS NO DATA! At least nowhere near enough to draw conclusions. You just took an anecdote from a shelter and tried to turn it into a reason to drop all restrictions and let it fly, every man for himself. There is no instant gratification that an entire generation or two has been raised to expect. People who are incapable of reading an entire news article at least for content jump to conclusions and wonder why the Fauci's of the world can't.
As long as the death toll continues to climb and new hot spots open every day why would you want to push your luck? And I'm not just talking about your luck, I'm talking about everyone you encounter through the course of the day or touch the same door you touched hours before. Georgia has a still increasing rate of infection but the Governor has decided to lift restrictions! Genius! Of course this is the same guy who said just last week that he wasn't aware that asymptomatic people can transmit the virus. I wonder how many of those nimrods on the steps of a handful of capitols don't know any better?
So instead, we have went crazy and decided that we should shut down the entire world over what is, basically, the flu. The newest data has confirmed that, so I have to stop saying otherwise. When this first hit the news cycle, I thought people calling it the flu were idiots who didn't know any of the data. Now, they just happened to luck into being right (they still were ignoring the data at the time). It's not just one or two studies to ignore anymore, there are countless ones. The one out of USC today indicated anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000+ have been infected with Coronavirus in L.A. County, yet there are only 600 deaths, which means the fatality rate is 0.02% -- FIVE TIMES less than the seasonal flu. Data out of Santa Clara wasn't far off, indicating a mortality rate somewhere between 0.08% and 0.20%. In any case, it's very similar to flu numbers. The only real difference -- and it is a meaningful one -- is the R0, which is just over 2, so it's twice as contagious as the flu and nobody has any immunity to it. That last part is somewhat offset by the fact that it seems the vast majority of people -- maybe as high as 90% -- have zero symptoms from the virus at all, or very few in any case. That's the only explanation for how so many people get this thing and didn't even know they had it to begin with. When you have a much more contagious "super flu," you're going to have many more deaths, but the actual mortality rate isn't any higher from the current data that's available.
Careful there. The other possibility is that the majority of those positive tests are actually false positives. The positive predictive value of a lab test (true positives divided by total positives) varies with the prevalence of a disease within the population being tested. As the prevalence of the disease in the population decreases, the percentage of false positives relative to true positives goes up dramatically (to the point in some cases where false positives dramatically exceed true positives).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positi...dictive_values
(This is a point that many physicians often forget, especially those who don’t specialize in laboratory testing. Beware of any study which doesn’t include estimates of PPV when discussing their testing results!)
Here's what you're not getting - THERE IS NO DATA! At least nowhere near enough to draw conclusions.
So, because there is no data, we reflexively assume the worst, justifying shutting down of the world?
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokonutty
As long as the death toll continues to climb and new hot spots open every day why would you want to push your luck?
I would "push my luck" because the losses from a shutdown are knowable, but the losses from a pandemic are not knowable... in other words precisely from your argument, of dearth of data.
Here's an analogy: insurance for your house is costly, but odds of a total loss are low... but unknown. The logical thing is to go uninsured, and to risk a devastating loss. Why? Because we know that the insurance payments are a guaranteed loss. But the thing against the house is being insured, is uncertain. It may actually be a complete trifle.
So, because there is no data, we reflexively assume the worst, justifying shutting down of the world?
I would "push my luck" because the losses from a shutdown are knowable, but the losses from a pandemic are not knowable... in other words precisely from your argument, of dearth of data.
Here's an analogy: insurance for your house is costly, but odds of a total loss are low... but unknown. The logical thing is to go uninsured, and to risk a devastating loss. Why? Because we know that the insurance payments are a guaranteed loss. But the thing against the house is being insured, is uncertain. It may actually be a complete trifle.
The "shutdown" is no such thing; some businesses are partially restricted, some not at all; it is temporary of indeterminate length and severity. I would suggest that as little as we know about the total effects of the pandemic we know even less about the toll of restrictions. How do you support your claim?
Look at how our world was before this, how much 'debt' has been racked up, we were spending insane amounts of money just to keep up the appearance that things were honky dory. Interest rates have been stagnant for a very long time, if they had raised it a couple points, that would have destroyed the economy too...that should have been a bigger warning sign that something was not quite right.
As the old saying goes, a house of cards built on sand is not going to last forever.
Here's a question... suppose that jbgusa and others voluntarily curtail their behavior, inconvenience themselves, lose money and sequester themselves for your sake, animalcrazy. Are they expected to do this out of charity? If not, how do you propose to compensate them? They are, after all, performing an act of self-limitation and self-harm, at your request.
Look, I realize that this is a difficult situation for all of us. I also look at this through a clinical eye. I worked as a Respiratory Therapist through H1N1. It was bad, but doable. This is much worse and not doable if left unmitigated. It's not just for my sake. It's for millions of the collateral damage victims that won't have a ventilator because they're all taken up with Covid patients. It's for the millions of health care workers that will get sick and die because of this. Cuomo was talking about 30% of his heath care workers that are out sick with this. It's not just for my sake, it's for all of our sake. Do you have kids? We just lost a 17 year old in our state with another 17 year old in ICU with Covid. Want to bring it home to your parents? One of my friends is a Respiratory Therapist on immuno-suppressant therapy for Crohns. She drank the koolaid and said it was media hype early on on Facebook. She called me hysterical because I prepared when the CDC said prepare. She said "I'm not afraid to go to a restaurant." I told her that she was a smart woman and knew how to research and that I don't understand your bizarre disconnect. Well, she has done a complete 180. She is scared and she said it makes her blood boil about these people that won't stay home putting their lives and everyone elses lives at risk. Politics is one thing. Science and research quite another. I teased her a bit when I said so I'm not so hysterical after all? She didn't reply. What's embarrassing is when you know better clinically but still believe political hype, to the point where it endangers your life, your loved ones lives, and your friends and neighbors lives.
You know what. If you want your freedom so much than by all means, go out there and defy the experts. Maybe you're lucky maybe you're not. Ever hear of a GOMER? (Get out of my E,R.) If you get sick, then stay home because you get what you deserve. Keep it to yourself and your loved ones if they catch it from you. That's fair right. Those same morons out there protesting because they have to stay home will be the same morons in the ER when they can't breath begging for help. That's how it works when the stubborn and stupid think they know better than all of the experts around the globe that are all in lock down now because of it. This is all we have. That and a totally botched early response with the real "all the best people" gone.
I will explain it to you another way. My last job as a therapist was at an LTACH. (Long Term Acute Care Hospital.) It was make it or break it there if you were on a ventilator and couldn't wean off. We had patients from several hospitals in the area. Most of them were in isolation for something nasty. When you are in isolation in any hospital, there are negative pressure rooms for airborne illnesses. You wear N95 masks, gloves, and gowns. There is contact isolation where you wear gowns and gloves. What do you think would happen if you enter any of those rooms without PPE and go to the next room? Obviously, most of the hospital and staff would be infected. Ya think? Even with good hand hygiene and the proper PPE the infections still spread from patient to patient. Some collateral damage is inevitable, but is minimized with proper mitigation. I have a therapist friend that caught TB because the patient wasn't in isolation. These things happen. What if that patient was never diagnosed? How many in the hospital would be sick?
Covid presents a unique challenge that is more insidious because 20% of the population infected are asymptomatic. That means you have it, never know you have it and spread it to a more vulnerable population. Do you know what an outlier is? That's the otherwise healthy 36 year I took care of on a ventilator that died of H1N1. Or that 100 year old in a nursing home that survived Covid. Want to gamble on which category you fall into? No? Me neither.
So lets compare society to a hospital. There is a highly contagious SARS virus circulating around the globe. Do we leave it unmitigated and take a chance on millions dying, because after all, the money is more important. That is until it's you or a loved one. Do we take a chance on over whelming a heath care system, infect the workers and they are too sick to care for anyone, or worse, they die. Or do we view this clinically and treat the the pandemic like you would any infectious disease in the hospital? Isolate it and starve it, or let it run amok?
Lets say we let it run amok. Just let nature take its course because dammit, I don't care about anyone else and I'm inconvenienced. Do you think that once it hits your araea and the freezer trucks start showing up to take your dead body away that your neighbors will feel comfortable going out to a sporting event? Restaurant? Movie Theater?
The Darwin award people will always be out there. We need them for guinea pigs. Want to be first? I'll watch from the safety of my own home. I know know how bad this is.
As far as compensation? I think who ever is responsible for this should compensate for it. I didn't create this, but we all have to deal responsibly with it. It's not fair, but it is what it is.
To rebuild society? Well, you don't want to stay in a state where when we were still in a pandemic would you? When this is over (be it 2 months or 20 months from now), we'd like to move on now wouldn't we?
Look, I realize that this is a difficult situation for all of us. I also look at this through a clinical eye. I worked as a Respiratory Therapist through H1N1. It was bad, but doable. This is much worse and not doable if left unmitigated. It's not just for my sake. It's for millions of the collateral damage victims that won't have a ventilator because they're all taken up with Covid patients. It's for the millions of health care workers that will get sick and die because of this. Cuomo was talking about 30% of his heath care workers that are out sick with this. It's not just for my sake, it's for all of our sake. Do you have kids? We just lost a 17 year old in our state with another 17 year old in ICU with Covid. Want to bring it home to your parents? One of my friends is a Respiratory Therapist on immuno-suppressant therapy for Crohns. She drank the koolaid and said it was media hype early on on Facebook. She called me hysterical because I prepared when the CDC said prepare. She said "I'm not afraid to go to a restaurant." I told her that she was a smart woman and knew how to research and that I don't understand your bizarre disconnect. Well, she has done a complete 180. She is scared and she said it makes her blood boil about these people that won't stay home putting their lives and everyone elses lives at risk. Politics is one thing. Science and research quite another. I teased her a bit when I said so I'm not so hysterical after all? She didn't reply. What's embarrassing is when you know better clinically but still believe political hype, to the point where it endangers your life, your loved ones lives, and your friends and neighbors lives.
You know what. If you want your freedom so much than by all means, go out there and defy the experts. Maybe you're lucky maybe you're not. Ever hear of a GOMER? (Get out of my E,R.) If you get sick, then stay home because you get what you deserve. Keep it to yourself and your loved ones if they catch it from you. That's fair right. Those same morons out there protesting because they have to stay home will be the same morons in the ER when they can't breath begging for help. That's how it works when the stubborn and stupid think they know better than all of the experts around the globe that are all in lock down now because of it. This is all we have. That and a totally botched early response with the real "all the best people" gone.
I will explain it to you another way. My last job as a therapist was at an LTACH. (Long Term Acute Care Hospital.) It was make it or break it there if you were on a ventilator and couldn't wean off. We had patients from several hospitals in the area. Most of them were in isolation for something nasty. When you are in isolation in any hospital, there are negative pressure rooms for airborne illnesses. You wear N95 masks, gloves, and gowns. There is contact isolation where you wear gowns and gloves. What do you think would happen if you enter any of those rooms without PPE and go to the next room? Obviously, most of the hospital and staff would be infected. Ya think? Even with good hand hygiene and the proper PPE the infections still spread from patient to patient. Some collateral damage is inevitable, but is minimized with proper mitigation. I have a therapist friend that caught TB because the patient wasn't in isolation. These things happen. What if that patient was never diagnosed? How many in the hospital would be sick?
Covid presents a unique challenge that is more insidious because 20% of the population infected are asymptomatic. That means you have it, never know you have it and spread it to a more vulnerable population. Do you know what an outlier is? That's the otherwise healthy 36 year I took care of on a ventilator that died of H1N1. Or that 100 year old in a nursing home that survived Covid. Want to gamble on which category you fall into? No? Me neither.
So lets compare society to a hospital. There is a highly contagious SARS virus circulating around the globe. Do we leave it unmitigated and take a chance on millions dying, because after all, the money is more important. That is until it's you or a loved one. Do we take a chance on over whelming a heath care system, infect the workers and they are too sick to care for anyone, or worse, they die. Or do we view this clinically and treat the the pandemic like you would any infectious disease in the hospital? Isolate it and starve it, or let it run amok?
Lets say we let it run amok. Just let nature take its course because dammit, I don't care about anyone else and I'm inconvenienced. Do you think that once it hits your araea and the freezer trucks start showing up to take your dead body away that your neighbors will feel comfortable going out to a sporting event? Restaurant? Movie Theater?
The Darwin award people will always be out there. We need them for guinea pigs. Want to be first? I'll watch from the safety of my own home. I know know how bad this is.
As far as compensation? I think who ever is responsible for this should compensate for it. I didn't create this, but we all have to deal responsibly with it. It's not fair, but it is what it is.
This is an excellent reply to all those who think we should just push precaution aside and "reopen our economy".
You touched though on what I think is the unanswerable point: If we don't control coronavirus the economy will be in shambles regardless of whether we "reopen it" or not.
Rational people aren't going to want to eat out, go to theater, go to sporting events, go to weddings, go to college graduations, watch a parade, or attend church services if they know there is a very real chance they contract a deadly disease in the process. Maybe a few people will, but for the most part its just not going to happen.
The key to regaining our economic security is either (1) find a vaccine for this disease; (2) find an effective treatment for it; or (3) Have testing on such a level that we can remove infected people from the population before they spread the disease to others.
If we can't do at least one of those three things our economy is sunk no matter what.
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