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The numbers aren't particularly useful (mostly), only because we aren't able to test a broad enough range of people. This is particularly true in many southern and/or red states that are eager to re-open from the lock-down.
Can't really hang your hat on "our numbers are going down" if you haven't tested anyone to know for sure. NYC is struggling as much as any city but they probably have a clearer picture of what's going on. I don't think any city or state should be pushing for a re-open until they have sufficient levels of testing.
That's been my point all along! -- What we are actually measuring is "Testing Rate", not "Infection Rate."
While the number of COVID-19-"related" deaths seems like a measurable and comparative metric, there doesn't seem to be a consistent measurement of the "related" part of this. It also appears like the numbers are being fudged when it comes to nursing homes, the homeless, home deaths, etc..
We all want to see the numbers go down and this pandemic defeated! But, we also need to know that it's actually happening ... and not simply a by-product of media or political rhetoric spurred-on by "optimism and the desire for a rapid and lasting positive outcome.
The economy seems to be opening because we NEED an economic solution. But, the question remains, 'Can an economic solution last, without a corresponding medical solution?' Perhaps, an economic solution can co-exist with the virus, but, the results to date have been less than conclusive (ie; Sweden, Somalia, China?, etc).
There's nothing fuzzy about the math behind exponential growth compared to linear growth. This is stuff we all learned in high school. And you don't even need to be able to remember the math itself to have a grasp of the concept.
Growth is not exponential when testing is exponential
That's why I ignore everything but the corpse count. Yes, people who don't die suffer from a range of effects, from clots, stroke, kidney damage, liver damage and heart damage, so the number of people with symptoms is very important, but that doesn't tell us how many are infected. We can assume that better treatment means a smaller percentage of infected people die, but that's the only semi-solid number we have.
My state (Oregon) was one of the first to lock down. The governor is planning a phased reopening. My county (Douglas) is scheduled to reopen on Saturday. We have been static at 23 confirmed cases and 0 deaths for a couple weeks now, and have 700+ negative tests. Understand that my county is the size of Connecticut with only 225,000 residents. There is little reason to penalize rural areas when it's the cities that are promiscuous. Coos County, on the southern Oregon coast has only identified three cases, all in the county jail. It's scheduled to reopen too, though individual towns closed tourist facilities like motels before the state locked down. Visitors are likely to receive a cold welcome.
I'm worried that relaxing restrictions will trigger a rapid spread of CV. I guess we'll see. As long as people observe the six foot rule and wear masks, they think things will be OK.
I agree, 'corpse count' may be one of the most meaningful numbers at this point.
A significant indicator of the prevalence of the virus is Excess Deaths. This is the number of deaths above what would be predicted based on pre-COVID-19 trends.
The CDC is tracking this and presents the data state-by-state at:
In some states there appears to be a 'shortage' of all-cause deaths below the predicted trends (see the attached example from Florida). Stay at home orders are preventing people from dying from accidents and other causes associated with economic activity, perhaps? There is also considerable lag time in the reporting of deaths to CDC.
That's been my point all along! -- What we are actually measuring is "Testing Rate", not "Infection Rate."
While the number of COVID-19-"related" deaths seems like a measurable and comparative metric, there doesn't seem to be a consistent measurement of the "related" part of this. It also appears like the numbers are being fudged when it comes to nursing homes, the homeless, home deaths, etc..
We all want to see the numbers go down and this pandemic defeated! But, we also need to know that it's actually happening ... and not simply a by-product of media or political rhetoric spurred-on by "optimism and the desire for a rapid and lasting positive outcome.
The economy seems to be opening because we NEED an economic solution. But, the question remains, 'Can an economic solution last, without a corresponding medical solution?' Perhaps, an economic solution can co-exist with the virus, but, the results to date have been less than conclusive (ie; Sweden, Somalia, China?, etc).
I have a sneaky feeling, there is information the govt is withholding from the public, in an attempt to kick start the economy again, and to keep people hopeful and optimistic.
I don't think anything is being withheld - with the information in plain sight, people interpret it - however tragic - to suit their needs and fears. It's apparent now that nothing the gov't says would matter, truth or lie. If you agree, it's good leadership, and if you don't, it's obviously a lie, but considering that you (yourself, in general) could actually be WRONG - that doesn't seem to be a thing these days.
We slowed it down enough to get prepared - it was a big speedbump - the only place in the country where the population size and density could have been a complete train wreck - and nearly was - is past this now. Everyone else can probably tolerate the "rush" whatever it turns out to be. Was that their "secret" plan? Probably not at first.
Without a vaccine or cure or something such thing - infections will pick up with "re-opening" - but no place really has the density to keep it up for more than a few days at a time. It will surely suck somewhere - and it won't be zero anywhere - but that initial speedbump (at great financial cost) bought us critical time.
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That's been my point all along! -- What we are actually measuring is "Testing Rate", not "Infection Rate." 
