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The story is about a couple who moved to Finland from Brooklyn, NY (aka "the old country" to my Jewish pal from Brooklyn).
What they left behind in Brooklyn: "...we felt deeply insecure and anxious. Our income was trickling in unreliably from temporary gigs as independent contractors. Our access to health insurance was a constant source of anxiety, as we scrambled year after year among private employer plans, exorbitant plans for freelancers, and complicated and expensive Obamacare plans. With a child, we’d soon face overwhelming day-care costs. Never mind the bankruptcy-sized bills for education ahead, whether for housing in a good public-school district or for private-school tuition. And then there’d be college. In other words, we suffered from the same stressors that are swamping more and more of Americans, even the relatively privileged."
What they found in Finland: "...we are automatically covered by taxpayer-funded universal health care that equals the United States’ in quality (despite the misleading claims you hear to the contrary), all without piles of confusing paperwork or haggling over huge bills. Our child attends a fabulous, highly professional and ethnically diverse public day-care center that amazes us with its enrichment activities and professionalism. The price? About $300 a month — the maximum for public day care, because in Finland day-care fees are subsidized for all families ... if we stay here, our daughter will attend one of the world’s best K-12 education systems at no cost to us, ... College would also be tuition free. If we have another child, we will automatically get paid parental leave, funded largely through taxes, for nearly a year, which can be shared between parents. Annual paid vacations here of four, five or even six weeks are also the norm. ... Finnish citizens report extraordinarily high levels of life satisfaction..."
What employers get in Finland: "...after World War II, Finland’s capitalists cooperated with government to map out long-term strategies and discussed these plans with unions to get workers onboard. More astonishingly, Finnish capitalists also realized that it would be in their own long-term interests to accept steep progressive tax hikes. The taxes would help pay for new government programs to keep workers healthy and productive — and this would build a more beneficial labor market."
Finnish companies get well educated workers, don't have to run training programs, don't have to pay for health insurance, family leave, day care, or other family benefits, have fewer regulations to deal with and are free to concentrate on their business.
My point is that even with these generous family benefits, the people of Finland are reproducing at an even lower rate than we are which support my contention that having children is such a burden and lifetime commitment that people would rather opt out on having children - no matter what.
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Last edited by Mike from back east; 06-13-2022 at 08:39 PM..
The story is about a couple who moved to Finland from Brooklyn, NY (aka "the old country" to my Jewish pal from Brooklyn).
What they left behind in Brooklyn: "...we felt deeply insecure and anxious. Our income was trickling in unreliably from temporary gigs as independent contractors. Our access to health insurance was a constant source of anxiety, as we scrambled year after year among private employer plans, exorbitant plans for freelancers, and complicated and expensive Obamacare plans. With a child, we’d soon face overwhelming day-care costs. Never mind the bankruptcy-sized bills for education ahead, whether for housing in a good public-school district or for private-school tuition. And then there’d be college. In other words, we suffered from the same stressors that are swamping more and more of Americans, even the relatively privileged."
What they found in Finland: "...we are automatically covered by taxpayer-funded universal health care that equals the United States’ in quality (despite the misleading claims you hear to the contrary), all without piles of confusing paperwork or haggling over huge bills. Our child attends a fabulous, highly professional and ethnically diverse public day-care center that amazes us with its enrichment activities and professionalism. The price? About $300 a month — the maximum for public day care, because in Finland day-care fees are subsidized for all families ... if we stay here, our daughter will attend one of the world’s best K-12 education systems at no cost to us, ... College would also be tuition free. If we have another child, we will automatically get paid parental leave, funded largely through taxes, for nearly a year, which can be shared between parents. Annual paid vacations here of four, five or even six weeks are also the norm. ... Finnish citizens report extraordinarily high levels of life satisfaction..."
What employers get in Finland: "...after World War II, Finland’s capitalists cooperated with government to map out long-term strategies and discussed these plans with unions to get workers onboard. More astonishingly, Finnish capitalists also realized that it would be in their own long-term interests to accept steep progressive tax hikes. The taxes would help pay for new government programs to keep workers healthy and productive — and this would build a more beneficial labor market."
Finnish companies get well educated workers, don't have to run training programs, don't have to pay for health insurance, family leave, day care, or other family benefits, have fewer regulations to deal with and are free to concentrate on their business.
My point is that even with these generous family benefits, the people of Finland are reproducing at an even lower rate than we are which support my contention that having children is such a burden and lifetime commitment that people would rather opt out on having children - no matter what.
A change in culture and values (as reported most in analysis of those studying TFR) in that the change from the desires of the past generation(s) --- the spouse, three children, house with a white picket fence and a dog in the yard --- gone from the dreams wants and desires of many living today. Replaced by college and a career --- for most in developed countries. The undeveloped countries that continue to have replacement level births, they are still living in according to values others don't understand. That too, is subject to change.
What one believes in changes first --- then the lifestyle follows. To increase the birth rate people's values have to change which would bring about a behavioral change. Family? Not everyone wants one and even in the word family, means to people today something different than it did to those 100 years ago.
For all the constants, change is the most prevalent and it doesn't follow the rules of finance.
In Hungarian language, the words for Children and Car are very similar.
So the Hungarians remind each other, "Kisci vagy Kosci", which tells young people they have a choice; buy a car or have a child. That's the dilemma facing young people around the world and as a result they have fewer children.
Hungary has a TFR of only 1.4, which is in line with Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Serbia, Italy, Greece, Japan, Slovak Republic, Andorra, and Latvia.
Europe, when considered from Ireland to Siberia, has 700M people. USA, of course, has 325M. But because Europe has such a low TFR, and USA has such high immigration numbers, there will be a time when the population of USA will be larger than Europe. Later in history - 100 years, maybe? - the population of USA will begin to fall. But not for a long time.
The transition, says Peter Ziehan, will be painful, but much more painful for Europeans than Americans. "Painful", in this context, means financially painful with bloodshed and conflict. It has started, but will not migrate across the oceans to USA.
In Hungarian, the words for Children and Car are very similar. So Hungarians remind each other, "Kisci vagy Kosci", which tells young people they have a choice; buy a car or have a child. That's the dilemma facing young people around the world and as a result they have fewer children. ...
We've mentioned lower incomes and lack of job security as a driving force behind having FEWER children.
In my morning email from NY Times on 05 June 2022 an author posits that lower income and lack of job security could be referred to as the Jack Welch effect. Welch was infamous for ruthlessly closing plants and firing thousands of workers, so much so that his nickname was Neutron Jack, a reference to the neutron bomb that kills people with bursts of neutron radiation but leaves buildings standing.
Excerpts: " For decades after World War II, big American companies bent over backward to distribute their profits widely. In General Electric’s 1953 annual report, the company proudly talked about how much it was paying its workers, how its suppliers were benefiting and even how much it paid the government in taxes. That changed with the ascendance of men like Jack Welch, who took over as chief executive of G.E. in 1981 and ran the company for the next two decades. Under Welch, G.E. unleashed a wave of mass layoffs and factory closures that other companies followed. The trend helped destabilize the American middle class. Profits began flowing not back to workers in the form of higher wages, but to big investors in the form of stock buybacks. And G.E. began doing everything it could to pay as little in taxes as possible. ... This was one of those moments when an exceptional individual at a critical moment really goes on to shape the world."
Gotta post one more link, to a NY Times article with a graph on how the various classes have fared since 1980 with the gist that except for the 1%, "The only real winners in today’s economy are at the very top, ...."
All that being said, and the gist of all the links, indicate financial reasons are the root of the baby bust and declining global population. In the USA, wealth and power are in the hands of our 784 billionaires, the rest of us must fend for ourselves in a grueling global economy and one of the first things that stops in the name of financial solvency and survival is having children.
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This is just a phase of the human story we are living through. I don't think there's any policy that could boost birthrates. This is bigger than that, and is mostly due to economic and scientific advances such as the declining need for human labor relative to machine labor, birth control, and improvements in infant mortality.
I'd like to think we could use policy to compensate for us overshooting the birth rate correction, but empirically it doesn't work.
That's because the baby bust was a product of a decades long propaganda campaign utilizing the media. You have to combat propaganda with propaganda; policy & incentives won't work. That means:
Eliminating media that glorifies non-reproductive relationships. No more LGBTQ positive coverage, ads, articles, sitcoms, etc.
Putting multigenerational, two parent families with an income earning dad & a stay at home mom on a pedestal in ads, articles, sitcoms, etc. No more shows with blended families, divorcees, single parents, same sex couples, child "freeres" in their 40's, etc.
Highlighting the plight of aging child freers in the media. More coverage of predatory guardians, embezzlement, elder neglect in facilities, etc.
Elevate the status of women as mothers in the media using subtle imaging. The mother of 6 is more beautiful that the mother of none. She's dressed well, well groomed & has a high standard of living because she's so valued by the father of her children that he is more than willing to provide that for her, for the rest of her life, despite aging & illness.
Because what we see now is the opposite & reality followed the propaganda, not the other way around. Until they stop the zero population growth campaign, nothing will change.
That's because the baby bust was a product of a decades long propaganda campaign utilizing the media. You have to combat propaganda with propaganda; policy & incentives won't work. That means:
Eliminating media that glorifies non-reproductive relationships. No more LGBTQ positive coverage, ads, articles, sitcoms, etc.
Putting multigenerational, two parent families with an income earning dad & a stay at home mom on a pedestal in ads, articles, sitcoms, etc. No more shows with blended families, divorcees, single parents, same sex couples, child "freeres" in their 40's, etc.
Highlighting the plight of aging child freers in the media. More coverage of predatory guardians, embezzlement, elder neglect in facilities, etc.
Elevate the status of women as mothers in the media using subtle imaging. The mother of 6 is more beautiful that the mother of none. She's dressed well, well groomed & has a high standard of living because she's so valued by the father of her children that he is more than willing to provide that for her, for the rest of her life, despite aging & illness.
Because what we see now is the opposite & reality followed the propaganda, not the other way around. Until they stop the zero population growth campaign, nothing will change.
I hope that you never use the word, "freedom." Because I really don't think that you believe in it.
I grew up not even knowing that intimacy with other women was possible until I was like 16 (and had already been sexually active with a number of guys.) As in...I think I knew that "gay" was a thing but I did not know that "bi" was a thing, for a while. And I most surely was indoctrinated to straightness because holy hell was it EVVVERRRYWHEREEE. Along with tons and tons of depictions of nuclear family life. I grew up without the "propaganda" of which you speak.
And yet I once met a girl and I liked her and she liked me...I eventually found a word that seemed to apply...and from there it wasn't long until I got wise to a whole bunch of things. I did not want children. Not because of propaganda. Mostly, I think, because my parents were crap. I did not enjoy BEING a child, I recognized that my own parents were failures when it came to being proper adults let alone carrying the responsibility of raising children well. I saw it as a big and sacred task that needed a big and sacred obligation because I had seen what it looked like, when someone SUCKED at it.
I did not have much faith in my own ability or desire to step up and do that job. I didn't want it.
Of course the reality did diverge from my wishes, in the end, and I did my best to handle it with grace. Life does not always go the way we plan it. /shrug
But the thing is, I don't think that anyone was ever prevented from being gay and turned instead into someone satisfied with their life as a straight person parenting kids, because they were fenced in by ignorance. Which is what you are proposing. "If people don't know anything about gays, they won't be gay." I could tell you about some folks who finally decided they could not cope with life in the closet, around middle age, and who either left their stunned families or else committed suicide.
And if straight propaganda hasn't managed to force all the gays to be straight, what makes you think that gay propaganda is making the straights gay? I would love to know.
Anyways.
I mentioned carrots and sticks? This is some stick crap right here. I cannot believe that forced conformity is actually seen as the right answer by some contingent. It's wild. But I don't know much about you, only the one particular anecdote you have shared about someone you dated for a while (still think that's awesome btw, and RIP to him)...as well as where you say you're from (did you join a megachurch?) but what you're pushing here isn't very libertarian, that's for damn sure. Restricting and silencing the voices of any ~certain people~ in favor of one consistent message, to push an agenda to encourage people to breed laborers to benefit the State...talk about propaganda...
But hey, maybe you are right though in terms of results. If all we care about is quantity and not quality, brainwashing people into thinking that suffering for others and living a thankless life of service is noble and beautiful...well, it's worked, historically. "Yes you will be poor and suffering your whole life, but the meek shall inherit the earth! (meaning...what?) and don't you worry, God will square it all up after you die." /stage laugh Make sure you work really hard! And remember, if it feels good, it's a sin!
I dunno I think it might be too late for this. Horse is out of the barn. Unless we are really willing to totally abandon the concepts of freedom that our nation was founded on, and embrace something closer to what Hungary is doing. And by the by, before you even suggest it...this country was not even remotely founded as a Christian nation. Religion would be the best candidate for a force, a power to put behind a shove back to "traditional values" as you suggest...but a great many Americans want nothing to do with it and our framers explicitly granted us freedoms in that regard, so good luck with that.
That's because the baby bust was a product of a decades long propaganda campaign utilizing the media. You have to combat propaganda with propaganda; policy & incentives won't work. That means:
Eliminating media that glorifies non-reproductive relationships. No more LGBTQ positive coverage, ads, articles, sitcoms, etc.
Putting multigenerational, two parent families with an income earning dad & a stay at home mom on a pedestal in ads, articles, sitcoms, etc. No more shows with blended families, divorcees, single parents, same sex couples, child "freeres" in their 40's, etc.
Highlighting the plight of aging child freers in the media. More coverage of predatory guardians, embezzlement, elder neglect in facilities, etc.
Elevate the status of women as mothers in the media using subtle imaging. The mother of 6 is more beautiful that the mother of none. She's dressed well, well groomed & has a high standard of living because she's so valued by the father of her children that he is more than willing to provide that for her, for the rest of her life, despite aging & illness.
Because what we see now is the opposite & reality followed the propaganda, not the other way around. Until they stop the zero population growth campaign, nothing will change.
" ... as India dips below replacement fertility, demographers are now arguing less about how scarily high its population might get and more about how scarily low it could go."
That's because the baby bust was a product of a decades long propaganda campaign utilizing the media..........
The baby bust is a world wide phenomenon. It cannot have been orchestrated.
Baby bust has more to do with urbanization of families than anything else. And urbanization will continue.
The baby bust is a world wide phenomenon. It cannot have been orchestrated.
Baby bust has more to do with urbanization of families than anything else. And urbanization will continue.
"Hence ideas evolve according to the idea production function entirely as an externality: people do not recognize that by having children, their kids may produce new knowledge in the future that makes the entire economy more productive. Markets are perfectly competitive, subject to the idea externality, and the only price is the wage per unit of work, given by wt = Aσ t in equilibrium."
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