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The more things that get electrified, the more critical reliability will be. In 2050, if it's not only your lights and fridge, but your car, stove, work, heating, smarthome, etc that ALL go out, then outages become more and more costly. And backup generation quickly eats away at materials and carbon saved by green energy. The Texopolyse and CA blackouts are indicators that we have a long way to go before electrification can be surefire.
Solar power during the day is good up to a point, but a certain percent of demand is constant (like data centers), so what is a positive perk for a small percentage of load because a huge hurdle when it dominates the energy mix.
All that means is it's a multipronged approach, there's no one single solution to the energy problem, sources need to compliment.
My philosophy is that it's easier to conserve than upgrade right now. It's better for me to drive an ICE car, but not drive that much, than to buy an EV and drive more miles. In 10 years, then the EV makes sense. We're just not far enough along the S curve yet... Eventually there will be better materials for electric objects that will offset the mineral consumption problem, but they aren't here yet.
The "cure" is unbelievably simple. Just turn the Air Conditioning on EARLY. Solar Prime Time 9 AM through "Solar Noon" (when the Sun is the highest) on to 3 pm is Solar Prime Time, for panels facing South -- that is how most stationary panels are installed. So rather than using the Set Back Thermostat -- Cool the buildings down COLD 9 am to 3 pm, and then coast into the evening. That allows the pre-cooled buildings to pre-compensate for the Heat-Lag / Hysteresis.
If you want to run further into the evening with Solar PV, you can also use "trackers" which extend the Solar Day to around 6 pm by tracking the setting Sun -- or even simply install stationary PV facing West.
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We have been dealing with this for decades now in Texas by reversing the heat day. We have very cheap and surplus Electricity at night. So on large sites we use Ice Tanks -- typically in a commercial basement. These freeze overnight, and the water is circulated through the Ice and Building to keep it cool all day, when Electricity costs more and is in demand.
Let's throw a few numbers to compare states
Electricity Retail Sales 2019
298.6 Trillion BTUs California: population 39,538,223
530.5 Trillion BTUs Texas : population 29,145,505
On a per capita basis Texas uses 240% of electricity of that of California.
CALIFORNIA ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL, 2020
48.3% Natural Gas
0.4% Other non-Renewables (coal is almost non-existent)
8.5% Nuclear (ends by 2025)
9.4% Large Hydro
33.3% Renewables
In addition California imports as much as 30% from other western states
[color="Red"]22.75 cents per KWh on average in California during May 2021 (according to EIA). Highest in CONUS.
TEXAS ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL, 2019
47.4% Natural Gas
20.3% Coal
10.8% Nuclear
0.2% Hydro
21.3% Renewables
ERCOT is not part of a multi-state grid and canno import electricity
11.96 cents per KWh on average in Texas during May 2021 (according to EIA) Slightly under US average of 13.71 cents
California electricity is much more expensive than Texas. California uses a lot less electricity than Texas despite have over 30% larger population. California must import electricity from other states (some of which is nuclear and coal-fired).
The tricks that you mention in Texas to allow you to reverse the heat day are wonderful, but you have very little solar in Texas compared to California. Also Texas is not declaring open war on coal, nuclear and natural gas as is California. In addition to using natural gas to create electricity, California is increasingly banning the use of natural gas for home heating, hot water heating, and cooking meaning most new homes will go on electricity.
Also electricity is a whole lot more expensive in CA than in TX which means that people are dying before they will put on their air conditioners.
So it's not just about current conditions but where things are headed and at what rate.
From my perspective it is foolhardy to declare war on the internal combustion engine, while at the same time declaring war on natural gas and nuclear at the same time.
The more things that get electrified, the more critical reliability will be. In 2050, if it's not only your lights and fridge, but your car, stove, work, heating, smarthome, etc that ALL go out, then outages become more and more costly. And backup generation quickly eats away at materials and carbon saved by green energy. The Texopolyse and CA blackouts are indicators that we have a long way to go before electrification can be surefire.
Here is the thing . . . Most decisions about what things and methods are chosen are made by folks with Master's degrees. Not that it is good or bad, but look at most any school, community, business, government . . . and those folks running things most often have Master's Degrees.
Since the rise of the MBA (Reagan-ish and after) many of those folks running things with Master's Degrees tend to be MBAs, as they fight for leadership positions. However . . . MBAs are about the dumbest of the folks with Master's Degrees.
So what happens is Dumb Folks make Dumb Decisions (figures, huh?). And Business Folks are always going to choose attempts at profitability OVER reliability. And then since they are also conditioned and trained to maintain their position by shifting cause and blame -- we all wind up stuck with:
1. first the Dumb Decision, and
2. then second, we get the Dumb results, and
3. then third, the MBAs try to re-direct blame for the causes and everyone is confused about what is really going on.
So in the case of California and power line blackouts -- THAT was ALL from dumb business decisions. The Grid Operator is a For-Profit Corporation. The business folks "deferred" maintenance and upgrades (to retain profits) -- which resulted in massive fires, entire towns burning down and a lot of dead folks. Now the morons are being sued for Billions, and now FINALLY doing the repairs and upgrades. No savings or profits in that == just dumb business folks.
Same thing with Texas in this regard -- all from Dumb Business Folks making Dumb Decisions. And then they try to blame anything / everything else.
We already know how to keep the grid up and reliable. Simplest term is called "loops." For highest reliability -- Every site, every transformer, every switchyard, every substation (on and on) is fed from at least two directions, like a big loop going in and out. You can break the system or equipment ANYWHERE on the loop, and everywhere is still fed from the other direction(s). And put the feeders underground and they are not subject to common damage. We have known this for DECADES.
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Solar power during the day is good up to a point, but a certain percent of demand is constant (like data centers), so what is a positive perk for a small percentage of load because a huge hurdle when it dominates the energy mix.
This is why folks who would actually like to work in this field (or make policy decisions) need to actually understand the loads (and Time-of-Use and Time-of-Production)
Not picking on you, and I understand you likely heard this somewhere else -- but Data Centers (again, just as an example) are about a Total of 1% worldwide, and 2% of the Entire US load. They are just background noise.
But as far as actual site use at Data Center, nearly half is just Cooling (daytime, especially) -- so it matches almost EXACTLY with Solar PV. The other nearly half goes to data processing (which again is largely daytime), and the final small percentage to storage. Adding all that up gives that one could easily cover around 75% or more of the Electrical Load from just On-Site-Grid-Tied-Solar. With some clever design that can be taken to 90%. And nothing is Cheaper, Faster, or Easier.
I follow that some folks reading this will just feel compelled to mindlessly argue this topic they have studied nothing of, so here is a simple backgrounder >>> https://energyinnovation.org/2020/03...rs-really-use/
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All that means is it's a multipronged approach, there's no one single solution to the energy problem, sources need to compliment.
My philosophy is that it's easier to conserve than upgrade right now. It's better for me to drive an ICE car, but not drive that much, than to buy an EV and drive more miles. In 10 years, then the EV makes sense. We're just not far enough along the S curve yet... Eventually there will be better materials for electric objects that will offset the mineral consumption problem, but they aren't here yet.
You are very correct about conservation -- we jokingly call Electricity not used "Negawatts." Energy not needed nor used.
The existing stock of ICEs will be continued to used in the years ahead, and eventually become novelty and museum pieces.
Probably the BEST thing we could do right now is SLOW and STOP building ICEs. The major auto folks are looking ahead at doing that now. Once created -- an ICE will try keep burning Oil for the next 20 years ahead. Every ICE we do not build now is a blessing for folks for the next 20 to 200 years.
btw, the "Mineral" stuff is largely just hype, nonsense and FUD -- from folks trying to be relevant about things they do not actually understand, or even to maintain the Status Quo.
The more things that get electrified, the more critical reliability will be. In 2050, if it's not only your lights and fridge, but your car, stove, work, heating, smarthome, etc that ALL go out, then outages become more and more costly. And backup generation quickly eats away at materials and carbon saved by green energy. The Texopolyse and CA blackouts are indicators that we have a long way to go before electrification can be surefire.
Solar power during the day is good up to a point, but a certain percent of demand is constant (like data centers), so what is a positive perk for a small percentage of load because a huge hurdle when it dominates the energy mix.
Great points!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil P
All that means is it's a multipronged approach, there's no one single solution to the energy problem, sources need to compliment.
What that signifies to me is not to seek a solution in search of a problem. Some "chicken little" panic is no reason to uproot a system which, except for occasional power failures and petroleum product shortages basically works. "We all have to do our part" or "we're all in this together" are slogans or ideology, not solutions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil P
My philosophy is that it's easier to conserve than upgrade right now. It's better for me to drive an ICE car, but not drive that much, than to buy an EV and drive more miles. In 10 years, then the EV makes sense. We're just not far enough along the S curve yet... Eventually there will be better materials for electric objects that will offset the mineral consumption problem, but they aren't here yet.
I'd rather the environmental activists admit that they are conscience-stricken about living in an affluent (they would pun "effluent") society and save their atonement or confession for the Yom Kippur or the priestly confessional and not spread their search of virtue to society.
I follow that some folks reading this will just feel compelled to mindlessly argue this topic they have studied nothing of, ...
Some mindless argument.
FACT: Practically everything you say is true in the average. Demand is generally high during the day when it can be more cheaply met by renewables like sun and wind which are cheaper and cleaner to operate,
FACT: The June electricity rates were published this week by EIA, and California has the highest average rates in the continental US, 23.11 cents per KWh, only 2.12% lower than Alaska's rate of 23.61 cents per KWh.
Many of the states with the lowest average residential rate (listed in order) are in the Western Interconnect.
Idaho
Oklahoma
Washington
Utah
Nevada
Arkansas
Nebraska
Louisiana
Tennessee
Kentucky
Oregon
North Carolina
Montana
FACT: California has one of the lowest per capita usage of electricity in the nation. That is partly because it is not stinking hot like the heart of the American South, but a big part is that electricity is so expensive.
FACT: When nearly a million customer lost power in California during the massive heat wave on 14 August 2020, peak demand was at 5 PM on a Friday. CAISO ordered a GW of power to be cut back 90 minutes later when generating capacity from wind and sun had dropped off considerably. The more and more that you cut back from reliable sources of power like natural gas and nuclear, the more these situations will occur. The more and more you will need to rely on expensive solutions like higher rates or battery grid level time shifting operations.
FACT: California is part of the western interconnect which relies on many sources of generation. California has goals so that it will gradually phase out the purchase of electricity from other states unless it comes from zero emission generating fuels. But California imports the most amount of electricity in absolute terms of any state in the US (Pennsylvania with it's nuclear power plants exports the most).
WECC sources of electric fuel (by nameplate capacity)
37.96% Natural Gas and Other Gases
25.08% Conventional Hydro
10.46% Coal
10.89% Wind
7.92% Solar
3.07% Nuclear
1.54% Geothermal
1.33% Pumped Storage
1.09% Biomass
0.38% Other
0.29% Petroleum
100.00%
FACT: The switch to renewables almost certainly requires a vast improvement in our transmitting capability. While in the past we used trains to deliver coal to the electric generators, or used pipelines to deliver natural gas. Wind and Solar power need to be transmitted with HVDC lines. The rest of the country is unlikely to want to fund these expensive projects. I doubt that battery to save electricity for a different time will ever be sophisticated enough to replace natural gas.
FACT: The decision by California to not only eliminate gasoline vehicles, but to eliminate natural gas for home use, while at the same time trying to eliminate most natural gas generated electricity will require an unprecedented alteration of our industrial society.
FACT: The decision by California to not only eliminate gasoline vehicles, but to eliminate natural gas for home use, while at the same time trying to eliminate most natural gas generated electricity will require an unprecedented alteration of our industrial society.
I guess they're for it as long as someone else is paying or bails them out.
FACT: The switch to renewables almost certainly requires a vast improvement in our transmitting capability.
This is a second response. Superstorm Sandy, on October 29, 2012 and Hurricane Iasais, which struck the New York area on or about August 4, 2020 decimated the transmission network in different parts of the New York area. I don't think the mitigation of climate change will happen fast enough to cancel out the likely damage from the storms that inevitably will happen.
And the daily Time of Production closely matches daily Time of Demand, both of which are very predictable, so that is fine, too.
You are way off on some of your data - time of production for renewable energy is no where close to time of demand and you lose lots of energy to storage solutions needed to match output.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T
...And in the meanwhile -- avoid New Nukes, and shut down the existing Nukes as they wear out.
Can have most of the world cleaned up and running right by 2050.
Just some Dinosaurs and folks throwing blocks in the road trying slow things down.
You are proposing removing the thing that will make this possible - Nukes are among the cleanest forms of energy and can operate to meet demand when renewables are not producing enough. Many equate it to the older technologies - most of the plants operating are 50+ year old designs. You dismissed the new designs - you are way off on your data, solar is not the be all to end all - need something to cover when sun is not shining and storage is not the way to do it.
There is a science of designing around the unpredictable, or cases where a number of things go wrong at one time. A professor at Georgia Tech would challenge half his class to fill a page with markings indicating Heads or Tails by flipping a coin 200 or more time, while the other half the class would just fake it by randomly filling a page with at least 200 Hs or Ts. He would then identify the fake ones from the real ones. It was an exercise in showing how wrong people are about faking randomness.
While this table was generated with a random number generator in a spreadsheet and has equal numbers of TRUEs and FALSEs if you generate such a table by yourself, it can almost always be detected as a fake.
0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0
1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0
0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1
1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1
1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
The blackouts on August 14th 2020 which occurred 90 minutes after peak demand (at 6:30 at night) when power produced by wind and solar had dropped capacity. The simplistic analysis was that the blackouts was simply because California had shut down too much of it's stable power sources (like San Onofre nuclear power plant).
If you read the report of last summer's summer blackout the engineers list all of the things that occurred at once (the heat wave was considered a once in a 35 year heat wave) . The extent of the heat wave was a huge factor because the entire Western Interconnect was hit at once, and California could not import electricity from other states (some of whom have very stable sources of power like coal or nuclear). A major natural gas plant went off-line that afternoon. The report is designed to leave you with the impression that nobody could have predicted all these bad things happening at one time.
People who have done engineering work know that mathematically the seeming random event happens much more frequently than most people think. Most systems have to be designed with a lot of overcapacity that is rarely used.
Electric power grids traditionally uses natural gas driven combustion turbines nicknamed "peakers" which can be activated in peak demand. They can create massive amounts of power at huge operating cost (and a lot of CO2 emissions). But they keep the grid operating.
These "peakers" are different than a normal natural gas generator which uses the fossil fuel to boil water (just as like nuclear or coal fired generators).
Last edited by PacoMartin; 08-26-2021 at 01:44 PM..
I guess they're for it as long as someone else is paying or bails them out.
Its very interesting how the state turned 180 degrees on natural gas in the last couple of years. It used to be the leader of converting to natural gas and technically forbid electric appliances if natural gas can be used. And forbid fuel switching to air source heat pumps for buildings with gas heat. I also do still remember the war against air conditioning in various parts of California back in the 20th century, originally was due to the refrigerant being responsible for the ozone hole, than its about greenhouse gases. I believe that had also lead to lack of heat pumps. As the population and builders were discouraged by policy and required costs in various cities and counties to install any forms of artificial refrigeration aka A/C especially in residential properties until CFC free refrigerants were the norm. I remember many eco conscious opt out of getting a/cs in their cars too until they became no longer optional. In my experience Natural gas is much more efficient than electricity in heat producting appliances especially the dryer.
Though since plastic grocery bags were made from waste products of production of natural gas I kind of expected the war against them in many progressive areas of the country and the world and growing with each passing year would lead to the war against natural gas as large amount of waste products that were once reused/recycled to make bags now need to be burned and eco conscious group would not tolerate the added pollution. Thus I am afraid the anti natural gas fad would soon be global even in Asia where it really improved life for the last half a century or so.
We really don't have enough electricity to power this many electric cars based on the state of the power grid today. I would expect electricity to be just as expensive as gasoline should state takes this route.
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