Data vs anecdotes (Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake: middle-class, oceanfront, low crime)

[UHgrad]

I kind of have a philosophical question here... I see a fair amount of posts on the HR forum that talk about crime. Now I am not going to act like crime doesn't happen around here, but every time I look at the actual crime data I find the following:

Virginia Beach is HANDS DOWN one of the safest cities in the country for populations over 250k. Wikipedia has a nice webpage that allows you to sort and compare cities in various categories (murder, property crime, rapes, car thefts etc...) and Virginia Beach rates as one of the 10 best in nearly every category. In fact, the violent crime rate in Virginia Beach the 2nd best in the country, ahead of places like Honolulu, San Jose, San Diego, Portland, Seattle and Raleigh.

United States cities by crime rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hampton, Newport News, and Chesapeake are middle of the road. There are a fair amount of places with lower crime but also a fair amount with higher crime. Norfolk is the worst, but it is still better than Richmond or Durham and on par with cities like Spokane, WA or Winston Salem, NC. Certainly not among the worst.

So what gives? Is the local news over-reporting things? Do we get a lot of small town folks that come here with the military and aren't used to the amount of people? Are people intimidated by seeing a large AA population and assume crime is worse than it is? Are the police not reporting the actual crimes that are happening? I just don't get it, the data does not support these assertions yet I consistently read people talking about how dangerous the area is.

[Kevin_R]

Hampton Roads isn't dangerous just like many other so called dangerous metro region aren't dangerous. Yes, you have pockets of high crime but, overall it is not dangerous. If you learn how to stay clear of those pockets then overall you will be safe. Norfolk and Portsmouth were very different cities than they were 20 yrs ago, as well as Richmond. Norfolk and Portsmouth were notorious for the high number of violent crimes. Since that time lots have been done to control the crime in those two areas. I know personally Portsmouth & Norfolk were very rough city during the 70's, 80's, and 90's well worst than Durham and they still are. The perception has stuck with those two cities til this day. There are still area in both cities that I wouldn't venture into, simply because criminals would take advantage of a new face. I think in this area ( Southside HR) its more people mistaken perception for reality Norfolk and Portsmouth are much older and look a lot more gritty and dangerous than the newer suburban cities. So automatically most people connect lower income/ lower education to more crime, but that is not really the case.

[Kevin_R]

[quote=UHgrad;21056026] Norfolk is the worst, but it is still better than Richmond or Durham and on par with cities like Spokane, WA or Winston Salem, NC. Certainly not among the worst.

I guess that is a good way to look at it but, Norfolk is much worst than Spokane or Winston Salem, and Durham. Yes, not Richmond though. I see it like New York was looked down upon before Giuliani the dangerous factor has still stuck but, its much improved.

[UHgrad]

Originally Posted by Kevin_R

I guess that is a good way to look at it but, Norfolk is much worst than Spokane or Winston Salem, and Durham. Yes, not Richmond though. I see it like New York was looked down upon before Giuliani the dangerous factor has still stuck but, its much improved.

Let me qualify my statement, according to violent crime statistics on the link I gave, Norfolk has a lower violent crime rate than Durham or Richmond and is on Par with cities like Winstom Salem, NC or Spokane, WA.

Virginia Beach has a violent crime rate of 188.1/100,000
Honolulu has a violent crime rate of 268.1/100,000
Hampton has a violent crime rate of 273.3/100,000
Chesapeake has a vilent crime rate of 383.8/100,000
Newport News has a violent crime rate of 488.2/100,000
Norfolk has a violent crime rate of 617.3/100,000
Spokane has a violent crime rate of 624.8/100,000
Winston-Salem has a violent crime rate of 651.3
Durham has a violent crime rate of 690.4/100,000
Richmond has a violent crime rate of 731.5/100,000

I haven't lived in all of these places, I cannot discuss the vibe or feel, I am simply referring to the actual crime rates based on the Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reports. So it isn't my opinion, it is the actual crime stats. Check the link and sort by violent crime rates. VB is considered a 250,000+ population city, the rest are in the 100,000 - 250,000.

That is what I am getting at, I don't think folks can get past perception and look at the data.

[UHgrad]

Originally Posted by Kevin_R

Hampton Roads isn't dangerous just like many other so called dangerous metro region aren't dangerous. Yes, you have pockets of high crime but, overall it is not dangerous. If you learn how to stay clear of those pockets then overall you will be safe. Norfolk and Portsmouth were very different cities than they were 20 yrs ago, as well as Richmond. Norfolk and Portsmouth were notorious for the high number of violent crimes. Since that time lots have been done to control the crime in those two areas. I know personally Portsmouth & Norfolk were very rough city during the 70's, 80's, and 90's well worst than Durham and they still are. The perception has stuck with those two cities til this day. There are still area in both cities that I wouldn't venture into, simply because criminals would take advantage of a new face. I think in this area ( Southside HR) its more people mistaken perception for reality Norfolk and Portsmouth are much older and look a lot more gritty and dangerous than the newer suburban cities. So automatically most people connect lower income/ lower education to more crime, but that is not really the case.

No doubt, I remember when Richmond was 4th per capita for murders in the whole country. Norfolk used to be up there as well. It is hard to live that repuation down.

[froggin4colorado]

Good post and topic of discussion.

[citydweller]

I agree that VB is safe. There are very few places in the city that I have not felt safe even at night.

[gregir]

In regards to crime and traffic the Hampton roads area has always thought it had worse issue than the facts and data indicate. Crime has remained fairly low for the size of the area. One thing that might explain some of the strong beliefs based on anecdotal information is the fact you may have a neighborhood with crime and problems right next to a high dollar fairly safe neighborhood. Using east beach village as an example, there is very little crime in the east beach village and homes that start around 500k but less than 1/4 mile away you can find significant criminal activity. Kind of skews perception. I grew up in a crappy little city in Ohio and feel safer almost anywhere in HR than in most of that town.

[D train outta nowhere]

As I'm sure you'll agree, the wisest approach to understanding crime here is a mix of quantitative/qualitative data. I live in VB, so:

- There was a spike in crime reported by VBPD early this year.

- I think it is fair to say trends (whether high/low crime) can be predicted using economic demographics. We also have a fair amount of blending where you get a middle-class neighborhood next to wealthy or poorer... I don't know where you're going with the race thing.

- Here's the link to the VBPD crime mapping tool, take a look at your own 'hood: ePRO - Electronic Police Reports Online :: VBgov.com - City of Virginia Beach I was just looking up the MDK (murder/death/kill) in my own middle of the road neighborhood.

- This might be the hardest to argue, but I feel it's important to make your own assessment of cultural health, macrolevel, all the way down to your own street. Maybe it's less nasty here than in the '70s? I hope so. But did we have the same culture of violence and dumbing down then, that we do today?

Just as I wouldn't base my decision to move to HR purely on anecdotes, I wouldn't walk up to a gaggle of street thugs and expect that showing them some stats is going to deter them from attacking my family or me.

[UHgrad]

Originally Posted by D train outta nowhere

As I'm sure you'll agree, the wisest approach to understanding crime here is a mix of quantitative/qualitative data. I live in VB, so:

- There was a spike in crime reported by VBPD early this year.

- I think it is fair to say trends (whether high/low crime) can be predicted using economic demographics. We also have a fair amount of blending where you get a middle-class neighborhood next to wealthy or poorer... I don't know where you're going with the race thing.

- Here's the link to the VBPD crime mapping tool, take a look at your own 'hood: ePRO - Electronic Police Reports Online :: VBgov.com - City of Virginia Beach I was just looking up the MDK (murder/death/kill) in my own middle of the road neighborhood.

- This might be the hardest to argue, but I feel it's important to make your own assessment of cultural health, macrolevel, all the way down to your own street. Maybe it's less nasty here than in the '70s? I hope so. But did we have the same culture of violence and dumbing down then, that we do today?

Just as I wouldn't base my decision to move to HR purely on anecdotes, I wouldn't walk up to a gaggle of street thugs and expect that showing them some stats is going to deter them from attacking my family or me.

I don't have a problem with anything you said, and I certainly recommend using common sense in all situations. But I'm not trying to understand crime, I am trying to understand why some people seem to exaggerate the level of crime in a city like Virginia Beach which is EXTREMELY safe when compared to other areas of the country. Crime happens everywhere, so there will be personal anecdotes of crime happening in any city, that is a given. But statistically speaking, people are much less likely to be the victim of a violent crime in Virginia Beach than in any other city of its size in the country (aside from Plano Tx) according to the data I provided. There really isn't anything about that statement to debate unless someone thinks the data is bogus.

I actually think that VB is much more egalitarian than most cities I have lived in, which may help explain the lower crime rates. The relatively low (by U.S. standards) GINI coefficient for VB supports this. Aside from small pockets near the bay/oceanfront which are wealthy and relatively homogenous, the neighborhoods are largely middle class, diverse, and economically similar enough that any disparity is not blatantly obvious.

I looked at the link you provided. From the period 1/1/2011 - 9/27/2011 there were 10 murders / Non Negligent Manslaughters in Virginia Beach. For a city with a population of nearly 450,000 that is very low.