Ana (Kihei, Pahala: parking, flooding, rain)

[UHgrad]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

To see the updated forecasts directly from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center go to

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

This has been down graded to a tropical storm.

I am not saying ignore hurricanes entirely especially if you live on Kauai.

See my blog if you are not aware of reasoning why Hawaii Island seems to be immune to hurricanes. Hawaii Island residents are in peril if they allow giant African trees to grow too close to their homes. Those trees naturally shed limbs the size of tree trunks without any wind.

https://www.city-data.com/blogs/blog3...selle-did.html

https://www.city-data.com/blogs/blog2...insurance.html

Note: As I anticipated the "experts" failed to account for the monsoon wind shift that occurred early this week. This is what is pushing the storm to the West.

If you want to understand what that is see

Amihan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-p...ngs/cp0214.gif


UHgrad, Your statement that a storm of any size shouldn't be ignored would be okay if we lived in straw houses, and a wind of any size was a problem. However, the fact of the matter is we do not live in straw houses. Further, I did not say ignore the storm. I said small craft advisories should apply. Waves are only 21 feet at this point and winds are hardly worth a mention for a mid-size craft like my own. The rigging on my sailboat is designed to withstand at least 144 knots. That is based upon typhoon Paka.
Typhoon Paka - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Now that would be storm to take cover for.

The experts weren't wrong, what are you talking about? They adjusted the forecast slightly over the period of a couple of days and have been talking about potential weakening due to wind sheer in the discussions all week. They never get it exactly right 4 days out, nobody does. The weather is too chaotic and complex to expect that.

You didn't say ignore the storm but you responded to my post with a dismissal of the storm and nothing more...

The storm is being pushed west by the steering currents that push all storms west at that latitude not some magic monsoon flow that appeared out of nowhere. The track was adjusted slightly south, not west. Then it is supposed to turn northwest. They have been saying that all week they are just off by 70 miles or so. It is well within the cone of uncertainty provided.

Furthermore, it is well understood why Hawaii sees few hurricanes and has been for quite a while. #1 it is a small target. #2 the water upstream of the islands is not typically above 80deg F which is needed to strengthen a hurricane. #3 the persistent trade winds provide vertical wind sheer which typically weakens hurricanes. #4 the large mountains on the big island interact with the storm and typically weaken it.

You don't have to live in straw huts to need to worry about a strong tropical storm and wind is not the only concern. Flash flooding would be the largest concern as the mountains will cause lift and enhance existing rain showers.

I'm glad your boat will be fine but my family in Hawaii lives in a 70 year old shack on the side of a south facing valley so I am still worried. Hopefully it is no big deal but it is worth being prepared.

[Sherwoody]

Originally Posted by UHgrad

That would be the best case scenario! Certainly possible since there is usually wind shear in the area around the islands. Intensity forecasts 3 days out are still poor, track forecasts tend to be better though so I'd have more confidence in the track at this point.

Well I'm neither a forecaster or a computer, but after looking at the changing conditions, I'm leaning towards a path that will result in a direct hit or even just east of the islands. It certainly does get easier to "predict" the path as draws closer.

[UHgrad]

Originally Posted by Sherwoody

Well I'm neither a forecaster or a computer, but after looking at the changing conditions, I'm leaning towards a path that will result in a direct hit or even just east of the islands. It certainly does get easier to "predict" the path as draws closer.

Yeah, accuracy goes way up within 48 hours. I think the consensus track now is taking a hundred miles or so south of the main islands but we'll see, it wouldn't take much of a turn to the north to make a hit on Oahu or Kauai. Heavy rainfall, particularly on south facing slopes, is probably still gonna be a big issue. Flash flooding and land slides would be my biggest concern.

[Sherwoody]

Using the enhancement tab, it appears to be weakening slightly.

Geostationary Image Browser -- SSEC

[leilaniguy]

First really hard rain started about 8 AM here in Kapoho. Not much wind yet.

[Dreaming of Hawaii]

Over here near South Point we have no rain but we do have big winds. And the surf is HUGE.

[UHgrad]

Originally Posted by Dreaming of Hawaii

Over here near South Point we have no rain but we do have big winds. And the surf is HUGE.

Cool, I'd love to see that huge surf!

[Sherwoody]

Originally Posted by Sherwoody

I predict it stays south of the islands and breaks up.

Geostationary Image Browser -- SSEC

Should have stuck with my first prediction. Some extra wind and rain is manageable, but be careful those of you on the coast.

[leilaniguy]

Sultry all day, little wind, high surf, now some lightening, 8:18 PM now. Overall a yawner.

[winkosmosis]

Nice hurricane sunset: