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Yes, the people on unemployment are fine. The business owners, however, are not. Those that do not have employees back at the helm can stay afloat for now with the PPP funds but once employees are back and business resumes, business owners will have a very difficult time trying to operate with 30-80% less revenue than normal and on top of all that they have to worry about that wonderful PPP loan that they will have to pay back.
This is a total disaster for businesses and the pain has not even reared a tiny fraction of its ugly head yet.
Sometime in June we really need to be opening up domestic and inter-island travel, open all businesses, practice social distancing and keep kupuna and the vulnerable at home.
I thought that PPP loans dont have to be repaid if you keep your employees on payroll
I thought that PPP loans dont have to be repaid if you keep your employees on payroll
Yes that is correct. But countless businesses can't keep their employees on payroll because they are either forced to close or simply have no customers or demand for their product/services. You only have 8 weeks
once the loan is received to use those funds for payroll otherwise it needs to be paid back.
Yes that is correct. But countless businesses can't keep their employees on payroll because they are either forced to close or simply have no customers or demand for their product/services. You only have 8 weeks
once the loan is received to use those funds for payroll otherwise it needs to be paid back.
As I understand things, though, if you keep payroll for 8 weeks, you're eligible for full loan forgiveness. But, even if you don't keep payroll for 8 weeks, that doesn't mean you have to pay everything back. Rather, the amount of forgiveness will be reduced fractionally (for instance, if you managed to keep payroll for half of your staff, you'll be forgiven half of the PPP loan; similarly, keeping all of your payroll for less than 8 weeks amounts to a reduction in forgiveness, but not a complete elimination of forgiveness eligibility). I'd wager that some businesses that accepted PPP loans will close, but that most won't be on the hook for repaying part or all of the loans as they will time the closures to occur at least 8 weeks after receiving the loans, even if it means having a skeleton crew in or allowing teleworking (from what I understand, the loans merely require you to maintain a payroll, not to conduct full business operations); note, 25% of a PPP loan can be used on things other than salaries, so I'd wager that most would be able to make it work.
We'll see what the final statistics show, but something tells me that the overwhelming majority of businesses with PPP loans (even those that close) won't be on the hook to pay anything back.
As I understand things, though, if you keep payroll for 8 weeks, you're eligible for full loan forgiveness. But, even if you don't keep payroll for 8 weeks, that doesn't mean you have to pay everything back. Rather, the amount of forgiveness will be reduced fractionally (for instance, if you managed to keep payroll for half of your staff, you'll be forgiven half of the PPP loan; similarly, keeping all of your payroll for less than 8 weeks amounts to a reduction in forgiveness, but not a complete elimination of forgiveness eligibility). I'd wager that some businesses that accepted PPP loans will close, but that most won't be on the hook for repaying part or all of the loans as they will time the closures to occur at least 8 weeks after receiving the loans, even if it means having a skeleton crew in or allowing teleworking (from what I understand, the loans merely require you to maintain a payroll, not to conduct full business operations); note, 25% of a PPP loan can be used on things other than salaries, so I'd wager that most would be able to make it work.
We'll see what the final statistics show, but something tells me that the overwhelming majority of businesses with PPP loans (even those that close) won't be on the hook to pay anything back.
I agree that some if not most of the PPP funds will be forgiven for most companies. However, even if you utilize the full 25% non-payroll allowance and manage to keep 1 in 4 of your staff employed during the lockdown period, you will still need to pay back 50% of the loan. This is just additional debt taken on by businesses to help pay bills but eventually this will all catch up and need to be repaid.
I don't agree that the overwhelming majority of businesses with PPP loans will not have to pay back anything. Maybe in the mainland US as an average but not here where businesses are doing many magnitudes worse than the average mainland state.
Hotel occupancy numbers came out for April. I'm surprised they managed to keep 8.9% of the rooms full (although at half the normal revenue per room per day). I thought we would have been at 3-4% occupancy even with healthcare workers, etc staying there. So maybe we are doing better than I thought.
Sometime in June we really need to be opening up domestic and inter-island travel, open all businesses, practice social distancing and keep kupuna and the vulnerable at home.
Well - right now the date is June 30 for lifting of quarantine.
Personally - I want off of this island badly. I've got things to do - people to see - I've lived here 10 years and I've not left the island since late February - the longest stretch since I moved here - the quarantine for the first time has made me really rethink living here. I can get behind a visitor quarantine - but they need to lift the resident quarantine. The ridiculous quarantine literally has me trapped on this island as I see no scenario where I can not leave my home for 14 days upon arrival home.
I can appreciate that you're respecting the law but I can tell you with 100% certainty the minority of the returning residents are following the quarantine requirements. I'm not by any means condoning this but this is what I see.
I can appreciate that you're respecting the law but I can tell you with 100% certainty the minority of the returning residents are following the quarantine requirements. I'm not by any means condoning this but this is what I see.
I don't doubt that. Personally - I don't want to be the rare person who gets the knock on the door by the police and I'm not home and instead at Safeway. While low odds - it is possible and it would be a career limiting move to make the news and get arrested (let alone my employer doesn't even know I live in Hawaii)
Hawaii is shut down until the 14 day quarantine is lifted and arrival numbers are significantly higher. Opening retail stores at Ala Moana and slowly phasing in restaurants, etc is just a distraction. By June 1st the quarantine should be lifted and arrivals allowed should be at least 50% of average. Any other "reopening" proclamation not based on arrival numbers can be ignored.
The virus affected less than .05% of the population and the vast majority of those infections were mild. That was the worst case scenario for Hawaii and was fully realized at it's peak towards the end of March. We still had arrivals in the 20,000 plus range as late as March 17th. Community spread never grew as predicted and the virus quickly collapsed. We now know that millions of tourist mingling with the local population, (without social distancing or masks) Feb-March did not end in disaster. If we immediately reopen to tourism in large numbers, we will be fine.
Hawaii is shut down until the 14 day quarantine is lifted and arrival numbers are significantly higher. Opening retail stores at Ala Moana and slowly phasing in restaurants, etc is just a distraction. By June 1st the quarantine should be lifted and arrivals allowed should be at least 50% of average. Any other "reopening" proclamation not based on arrival numbers can be ignored.
The virus affected less than .05% of the population and the vast majority of those infections were mild. That was the worst case scenario for Hawaii and was fully realized at it's peak towards the end of March. We still had arrivals in the 20,000 plus range as late as March 17th. Community spread never grew as predicted and the virus quickly collapsed. We now know that millions of tourist mingling with the local population, (without social distancing or masks) Feb-March did not end in disaster. If we immediately reopen to tourism in large numbers, we will be fine.
Even if they opened up now I'd be shocked if arrivals are anywhere near 50%. I'd be surprised if we even hit 25% within the first 30 days. But there is a very distinct possibility we'll get an early surge with restless people locked up at home plus the abundance of dirt cheap airfare and hotels. Not to mention many of the potential visitors may be receiving unemployment in their respective states. Dirt cheap vacation in Hawaii all without having to use saved up vacation hours.
It will be very interesting to see how people react. But I agree we need to open tourism in June and watch closely how case counts rise. I'm hoping the media will be honest in their reporting and provide quarantine test numbers (number of tests administered relative to cases) and post- quarantine test numbers side by side instead of claiming a high rise of cases because we all know the number of daily tests will skyrocket post- quarantine.
This whole pandemic has become so political you pretty much have to ignore everything but the actual data. And even then you need to pry to get the data you need to come to any unbiased conclusion. Personally I'm disgusted by both parties. I've said it for years, the two party system will destroy this country and this pandemic only reinforces that assessment.
Hawaii is shut down until the 14 day quarantine is lifted and arrival numbers are significantly higher. Opening retail stores at Ala Moana and slowly phasing in restaurants, etc is just a distraction. By June 1st the quarantine should be lifted and arrivals allowed should be at least 50% of average. Any other "reopening" proclamation not based on arrival numbers can be ignored.
The virus affected less than .05% of the population and the vast majority of those infections were mild. That was the worst case scenario for Hawaii and was fully realized at it's peak towards the end of March. We still had arrivals in the 20,000 plus range as late as March 17th. Community spread never grew as predicted and the virus quickly collapsed. We now know that millions of tourist mingling with the local population, (without social distancing or masks) Feb-March did not end in disaster. If we immediately reopen to tourism in large numbers, we will be fine.
I agree that Hawaii would be fine if it opened up today (acknowledging that fine is relative), even if it did see a significant spike in cases. Of course, that's not going to happen.
Yes, I would expect to see a spike in cases and more deaths, but this is going to have to be something that is balanced and considered as the economy cannot stay effectively closed off to outsiders indefinitely absent a vaccine. And maintaining and enforcing a 14 day quarantine for arrivals will ensure that arrivals remain at an unsustainable level economically.
As for Hawaii not having bed space and medical capacity to handle a significant surge in cases, that's why the Army Corp of Engineers had been building thousands+ occupancy makeshift beds in cities across the mainland; thankfully, these extra beds weren't needed, but that's beside the point.
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